Roberto Nisticò

We study the long-run demographic and employment effects of early refugee arrivals across the Mediterranean, exploiting the unexpected landing of Kurdish refugees in two small, depopulating communities in Southern Italy in the late 1990s and the local reception policies they triggered. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we document persistent employment growth over more than two decades, driven by housing reuse and the expansion of local service activities under these programs. Despite similar pre-shock trends, demographic outcomes differed markedly across the two cases, with sustained population growth in one but not the other, reflecting differences in institutional continuity and policy implementation. Our findings show that, outside urban settings, place-based reception policies can turn refugee arrivals into opportunities for local development and demographic stabilization when supported by consistent institutional engagement.