Publications

Résumé Here we explore the well-being of sexual and gender diverse (LGBTQ+) people using three socioecological dimensions of homophobia, family, community and national and their socioeconomic status via a convenience sample of 82,324 participants. Participants from the Middle East and North Africa reported the lowest subjective well-being (mean 4.78, s.d. of 2.70), followed by Eastern Europe and Central Asia (mean 5.22, s.d. of 2.13). The Structural Homophobic Climate Index (β = -1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.38 to -0.99) and family-level homophobia (β = -0.84, 95% CI -0.87 to -0.81) were negatively related to LGBTQ+ well-being. Economic precarity significantly interacted with the negative association between homophobia and participants' well-being. The weight of a country's homophobic climate on well-being was nearly halved for economically secure participants compared with those economically deprived. Participants unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus status reported the lowest well-being (β = -0.20, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.16) controlling for homophobia. Public health measures should address homophobic stigma and discrimination, focusing on the lowest socioeconomic strata.
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Résumé In this paper, we provide a framework in which a stationary bubble can exist on a portfolio of dividend-yielding assets. Consistent with standard asset pricing theory, this portfolio bubble is defined as the difference between the portfolio market price and the present value of its future dividend stream. This bubble can coexist with a positive stationary fundamental value, without requiring the collapse of the latter over time. This result is obtained in an exchange overlapping generations economy featuring both newly issued and pre-existing financial assets that depreciate over time, and jointly constitute the asset portfolio. The introduction of new assets in each period decouples the return on bubbles from the effective discount rate applied to dividends. As a result, stationary equilibria can exist with both a positive bubble and a positive fundamental component in the portfolio value. Finally, our framework also allows us to discuss the role of the substitutability between financial assets on the level of bubbles and fundamental values.
Mots clés Fundamental value, Financial assets, Rational bubbles
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Résumé This article analyzes the impact of income inequality on environmental policy in the presence of green consumers. We first perform an empirical analysis using a panel of European countries over the period 1995–2021. The results show a negative relationship between inequality and public environmental expenditure, which is weaker with higher inequality. We also find a negative correlation between environmental expenditure and green consumption, that highlights the substitutable nature of the relationship between the two variables. We next develop a model with two main ingredients: citizens with different income capacities have access to two commodities that differ in terms of environmental impact, and they vote on the environmental policy. In equilibrium, the population is divided into two groups, conventional vs green consumers. An increase in inequality raises the marginal cost of policy through size and composition effects. The higher the equilibrium tax, the larger the overall effect. This provides us with an explanation of the main empirical result.
Mots clés Green consumption, Environmental public expenditure, Inequality, Income distribution
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Résumé Objectives 1. To develop a deep-learning segmentation model for automated measurement of maximal aortic diameter (D max ) and volumes of aortic dissection components: true-lumen (TL), circulating false-lumen (CFL), and thrombus (Th) on CT angiography (CTA). 2. To assess the predictive value of these measures for adverse aortic remodeling in residual aortic dissection (RAD).Materials and methods This retrospective study included 322 patients from two centers. The segmentation model was trained on 120 patients (Center 1) and tested on an internal dataset (30 patients, Center 1) and an external dataset (10 patients, Center 2) in terms of Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC). The model extracted D max , global false-lumen volume (FL Glo = CFL + Th), and local false-lumen volume (FL Loc , measured 3 cm around the largest diameter). Clinical validation was performed on 83 patients from Center1 (internal validation, 2-year follow-up) and 79 patients from Center2 (external validation, 4.5-year follow-up). ResultsThe segmentation model achieved high accuracy (Center 1, DSC: 0.93 TL, 0.93 CFL, 0.87 Th; Center 2, DSC: 0.92 TL, 0.93 CFL, 0.84 Th) with strong agreement between automated and manual measurements. Aortic remodeling occurred in 39/83 patients (46.9%) from Center1 and 33/79 patients (41.7%) from Center2. Aortic remodeling occurred in 39/83 patients (47%) from Center1 and 33/80 (42%) from Center2. FL Loc outperformed D max and FLGlo (Center 1: AUC = 0.83, 0.73, and 0.76; Center 2: AUC = 0.77, 0.64, and 0.70). At optimal thresholds, FL Loc showed good predictive performance (Center 1: Sensitivity = 0.87, Specificity = 0.68). Conclusion Deep-learning segmentation provides accurate aortic measurements. Local false-lumen volumes predict adverse aortic remodeling in RAD better than diameter and global false-lumen volumes. Key PointsQuestion In residual aortic dissection (RAD) after type-A dissection, early identification of high-risk patients on initial CT angiography is crucial for endovascular treatment decisions. Findings False-lumen local volumes (3 cm around aortic dissection maximal diameters), obtained with an automatic deeplearning method, predict adverse remodeling better than diameter or global false-lumen volumes. Clinical relevance A deep-learning segmentation method of aortic dissection components on CTA, enabling automatic measurements of diameters and volumes is feasible. It provides local false-lumen volumes, a better predictive marker of adverse aortic remodeling than the currently used diameters and global volumes.
Mots clés Aortic dissection, Computed tomography angiography, Deep-learning, Prognosis, Computer-assisted image processing
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Résumé Introducing a new measure of scientific proximity between private firms and public research groups and exploiting a multi-billion euro financing program of academic clusters in France, we provide causal evidence of local spillovers from academic research to firms in the private sector. Our main estimate suggests that each euro spent in academic research through this program spurred an additional 0.78 euros in private R&D expenditures. We also show that this shock increased the average quality of patents. We exploit reports produced by funded clusters, complemented by data on firm creation, labor mobility and R&D public–private partnerships, to provide evidence on the channels for these spillovers. We discuss the policy implications of funding academic research to stimulate private R&D.
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Résumé Introducing a new measure of scientific proximity between private firms and public research groups and exploiting a multi-billion euro financing program of academic clusters in France, we provide causal evidence of local spillovers from academic research to firms in the private sector. Our main estimate suggests that each euro spent in academic research through this program spurred an additional 0.81 euros in private R&D expenditures. We also show that this shock increased the average quality of patents. We exploit reports produced by funded clusters, complemented by data on firm creation, labor mobility and R&D public–private partnerships, to provide evidence on the channels for these spillovers. We discuss the policy implications of funding academic research to stimulate private R&D.
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Résumé To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first broad-scale, nation-wide analysis of a set of long-term morbidity effects of air pollution and assessment of their economic impacts in France. We used the Health Risk Assessment method and the latest concentration-response functions, both from the World Health Organization (WHO). The economic analysis - a comprehensive cost of illness approach - includes direct health and non-health care costs, indirect and intangible costs. Beyond its impact on mortality, the study shows that lowering PM2.5 levels over time in France would produce substantial health and well-being benefits by reducing the onset of several diseases. Documented here as attributable to long-term exposure to anthropogenic PM2.5 on average in a given year are 20 % of new cases of respiratory diseases in children and 7–11 % of new cases of respiratory, cardiovascular or metabolic diseases in adults. We also show that reducing PM2.5 concentrations to WHO’s air-quality guideline (AQG) levels would reduce morbidity attributable to this anthropogenic pollution by up to 75 %. Finally, if average PM2.5 levels were reduced to their anthropogenic thresholds, annual benefits to health and well-being for the diseases studied would total €201812.88 billion. Given these findings, complying with WHO AQG would reduce mortality and morbidity attributable to air pollution in France and help achieve the objective of WHO’s Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, namely a one-third reduction in the risk of dying from a chronic disease by 2030.
Mots clés Economic assessment, Health risk assessment, Long term impacts, Morbidity, PM25, Air pollution
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Résumé While Ellis, Reid, and Kramer’s life history framework is convincing in explaining individual variation in life history strategies, it has certain limitations, which we discuss – drawing notably on the economic theory of fertility choice. In particular, we suggest that ambient cues to extrinsic mortality alone are not sufficient to trigger sustained net fertility decline. Commentary in response to: Ellis BJ, Reid BM, Kramer KL. Two tiers, not one: Different sources of extrinsic mortality have opposing effects on life history traits. Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 2025; 48:e99. doi:10.1017/S0140525X24001316
Mots clés Child mortality, Fertility, Economic development
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Résumé In the literature on secular stagnation, demographic aging is widely blamed for lowering the IS curve of aggregate demand and therefore the natural interest rate. However, little is known about the impact of workforce aging on long-term aggregate supply, or so-called potential GDP. To fill this gap, this study delves into the effects of workforce aging on two key components of the remarkably sluggish potential GDP growth of developed countries: hours worked and labour productivity. First, using a novel macro-accounting decomposition of EU-KLEMS data, we find that old-labour input has the highest contribution to growth, through both increased hours worked and shifts in labour composition in the EU, US and Japan. Second, we use panel stochastic frontier models highlighting that, however, old workers have an adverse effect on labour productivity growth frontier – though increasing technical efficiency, i.e., reducing the distance to this frontier.
Mots clés Labour productivity and EU-KLEMS, Stochastic frontier analysis, Labour Input, Potential growth, Demographic Aging
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Résumé Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate, aging and pop-ulation contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called “fifth stage”). This chapter seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We extend Autor and Dorn’s (2013) theoretical framework to introduce two key mechanisms that have been at play since the 2000s: (i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and (ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. The model predicts an increasing concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, which should aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality.
Mots clés Japan, Economic structure, Technological change, Productivity, Demographic transition
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Résumé This book features a selection of papers presented at the Franco-Japanese Conference on Asian and International Economies in the era of globalization. In light of shifts in international economic relations, the globalization of labor markets, and the dynamics of migration, this book explores various aspects of the integration of Asian and other emerging economies into globalization. The contributions cover topics related to international trade, the international monetary system, strategic corporate behavior, and economic policy. Additionally, the book features contributions analyzing geopolitical aspects and China’s role in international trade. The contributions were the result of a collaboration between researchers from Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The researchers met monthly in a webinar, which was co-hosted by Yokohama University in Japan and Sciences Po Aix in France. The purpose of the webinar was to reflect on the challenges emerging economies are facing in the context of the new wave of globalization. The book is intended for students and researchers, as well as economists and policymakers, who will find it useful for their practical decision-making.
Mots clés Public Economics, International Economics, Emerging Markets/Globalization, Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics
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Résumé This study examines the saving behavior of a regret-averse agent within a two-period model. The analysis demonstrates that disproportionate aversion to large regrets induces a pseudo effect resembling probability weighting. In particular, the agent assigns greater weight to states in which significant saving regret might arise. As a result, regret aversion encourages precautionary saving when income shocks are sufficiently negatively skewed but diminishes or even reverses precautionary saving when they are not. The exact skewness condition under which the agent saves more than a discounted utility counterpart is characterized in the context of small binary risks. Notably, this condition becomes more restrictive as the traditional measure of absolute prudence increases. A simulation involving large income shocks further confirms that the qualitative insights derived from the small-risk case extend to broader scenarios, highlighting that regret aversion can substantially influence saving behavior when income risks are skewed.
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Résumé Recurring statistical issues such as censoring, non-random selection and heteroskedasticity often impact the analysis of observational data from natural and human processes. We investigate the potential advantages of models based on quantile regression (QR) for addressing these issues, with a particular focus on non-market valuation data. First, we provide analytical arguments showing how QR can tackle these issues. Second, we show by means of a Monte Carlo experiment how censored QR (CQR)-based methods perform compared to standard models with selection both accounted for and not accounted for in the modeling. Incidentally, we propose an alternative to the standard estimation procedure for the CQR model with selection, which divides computation time by about 100. Third, we apply these four models to a French contingent valuation survey on flood risk. Our findings suggest that selection-censored models are useful for simultaneously tackling issues often present in observational and human data. In addition, the CQR models give a better picture of the heterogeneity of the coefficients, but the computational complexity of the CQR-selection model does not seem to be offset by better performance.
Mots clés Monte Carlo Experiment, Selection Model, Flood, Nonmarket valuation, Censored Quantile Regression
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Résumé Recurring statistical issues such as censoring, non-random selection and heteroskedasticity often impact the analysis of observational data from natural and human processes. We investigate the potential advantages of models based on quantile regression (QR) for addressing these issues, with a particular focus on non-market valuation data. First, we provide analytical arguments showing how QR can tackle these issues. Second, we show by means of a Monte Carlo experiment how censored QR (CQR)-based methods perform compared to standard models with selection both accounted for and not accounted for in the modeling. Incidentally, we propose an alternative to the standard estimation procedure for the CQR model with selection, which divides computation time by about 100. Third, we apply these four models to a French contingent valuation survey on flood risk. Our findings suggest that selection-censored models are useful for simultaneously tackling issues often present in observational and human data. In addition, the CQR models give a better picture of the heterogeneity of the coefficients, but the computational complexity of the CQR-selection model does not seem to be offset by better performance.
Mots clés Selection model censored quantile regression Monte Carlo experiment nonmarket valuation flood
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Résumé This paper is essentially based on the assumption that policies supporting investment in intermittent renewable technologies cannot be contingent on meteorological events causing this intermittence. This decision was taken by most policymakers to avoid overly complex policy prescriptions. But in doing so, the first-best energy mix may be out of reach. We compare, in a unified second-best setting, the feed-in tariff, renewable premiums and tradable green certificates policy. We consider a “two-period, S-state” model. The S states reflect intermittency. Production decisions for renewable electricity are taken prior to the resolution of the uncertainty while the fossil-fuel sector adjusts its decision in each state. Retailers buy electricity on a state-dependent wholesale market which they deliver to consumers according to a fixed-tariff or a real-time-pricing contract. All these elements matter in the efficiency assessment of these policies.
Mots clés Tradable green certificates, Renewable premiums, Feed-in tariff, Renewables, Intermittency
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Résumé For some smooth special case of generalized $\varphi-$divergences as well as of new divergences (called scaled shift divergences), we derive approximations of the omnipresent (weighted) $\ell_{1}-$distance and (weighted) $\ell_{1}-$norm.
Mots clés Divergence Kullback-Leibler, Divergence analysis, $\ell1-$distance/norm, Generalized $\varphi-$divergences
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Résumé We propose the stepwise Cauchy combination test (StepC), a new procedure for multiple testing with dependent test statistics and sparse signals. Unlike the global version, StepC pinpoints which p-values drive rejections, while maintaining strong familywise error control. It is less conservative under dependence and more powerful than conventional multiple testing corrections. In simulations and in applications to drift burst detection and testing for nonzero alphas, StepC consistently boosts power and yields more meaningful rejections, making it a practical alternative for large-scale financial datasets.
Mots clés Nonasymptotic approximation, Sequential rejection, Multiple hypothesis testing, Familywise error, Dependence
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Résumé This paper revisits the question of whether fixed and mobile Internet expenditures are substitutable or complementary. We estimate a demand system using French household expenditure data to compute price elasticities for different categories of goods. The results indicate that fixed and mobile Internet expenditures are complementary in France. This complementarity effect increases with income level. We then develop a simple theoretical model showing that depending on the characteristics of fixed and mobile data tariffs, fixed and mobile Internet expenditures can exhibit non-substitutability or even complementarity.
Mots clés QUAIDS demand system, Household behavior, Internet expenditure
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Résumé We use an overlapping generations model with physical and human capital, and two reproductive periods to explore how fertility decisions may differ in response to economic incentives in early and late adulthood. In particular, we analyze the interplay between fertility choices—related to career opportunities—and wages, and investigate the role played by work experience and investment in both types of capital. We show that young adults postpone parenthood above a certain wage threshold and that late fertility increases with work experience. The long run trend is either to converge to a low productivity equilibrium, involving high early fertility, investment in physical capital and relatively low income, or to a high productivity equilibrium, where households postpone parenthood to invest in their human capital and work experience, with higher late fertility and higher levels of income. A convergence to the latter state would explain the postponement of parenthood and the mitigation or slight reversal of fertility decrease in some European countries in recent decades.
Mots clés Fertility, Overlapping generations, Work experience, Postponement
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Résumé We consider public goods games with heterogeneous players interacting on a network and investigate how shocks to players' characteristics and changes in interaction patterns influence individual and total contributions. We introduce a linear system associated to the initial game, in which heterogeneity in players' characteristics is removed and interactions between players are reversed, and show that what matters in determining the effects of a shock on contributions is the sign of the coordinates of its unconstrained solution. When players are identical, we demonstrate that positive shocks on active players increase contributions, while positive shocks on strictly inactive players decrease them, contrary to intuition. We also identify a subset of players, called neutral players, who exert no influence on total contributions. Furthermore, we provide precise formulas for the change in total contributions following various types of shocks, and provide conditions to determine whether the shock will have positive or negative consequences on contributions. We show that these conditions always rely on the sign of the associated problem's unconstrained solution coordinates of the players impacted by the shock.
Mots clés Comparative Statics, Heterogeneous Players, Public goods
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