Luca Gambetti
Universidad Autonoma Barcelona
News-driven uncertainty and economic fluctuations
Joint with
Mario Forni, Luca Sala
Venue
VC Cinéma le Miroir
Centre de la Vieille-Charité - Cinéma le Miroir
Centre de la Vieille Charité
2 rue de la Charité
13002 Marseille
Date(s)
Monday, March 20 2017| 3:00pm to 4:30pm
Contact(s)
Timothée Demont: timothee.demont[at]univ-amu.fr
Roberta Ziparo: rziparo[at]gmail.com
Abstract
News shocks have both a permanent, first-moment effect on point expectations and a temporary, second-moment effect on their confidence bands. Large news shocks increase uncertainty, thus reducing the effects of good news and enlarging the effects of bad news in the short run. The Volker recession and the great recession were exacerbated by the uncertainty effects of news. By contrast, small news shocks reduce uncertainty and increase output in the short run.
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