meunier

Publications

Web-scraping housing prices in real-time: The Covid-19 crisis in the UKJournal articleJean-Charles Bricongne, Baptiste Meunier and Sylvain Pouget, Journal of Housing Economics, Volume 59, pp. 101906, 2023

While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web-scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timely and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to focus on the supply side of the housing market, allowing to compute innovative indicators reflecting the sellers' perspective such as the number of new listings posted or how prices fluctuate over time for existing listings. Matching listing prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database, using machine learning, also measures the negotiation margin of buyers. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the “wait-and-see” behaviour of sellers. They also show that listing prices after the lockdown experienced a continued decline in London but increased in other regions.

Nowcasting world GDP growth with high-frequency dataJournal articleCaroline Jardet and Baptiste Meunier, Journal of Forecasting, Volume 41, Issue 6, pp. 1181-1200, 2022

Although the Covid-19 crisis has shown how high-frequency data can help track the economy in real time, we investigate whether it can improve the nowcasting accuracy of world GDP growth. To this end, we build a large dataset of 718 monthly and 255 weekly series. Our approach builds on a Factor-Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA-MIDAS), which we extend with a preselection of variables. We find that this preselection markedly enhances performances. This approach also outperforms a LASSO-MIDAS—another technique for dimension reduction in a mixed-frequency setting. Though we find that a FA-MIDAS with weekly data outperform other models relying on monthly or quarterly data, we also point to asymmetries. Models with weekly data have indeed performances similar to other models during “normal” times but can strongly outperform them during “crisis” episodes, above all the Covid-19 period. Finally, we build a nowcasting model for world GDP annual growth incorporating weekly data that give timely (one per week) and accurate forecasts (close to IMF and OECD projections but with 1- to 3-month lead). Policy-wise, this can provide an alternative benchmark for world GDP growth during crisis episodes when sudden swings in the economy make usual benchmark projections (IMF's or OECD's) quickly outdated.