We analyze sunspot-driven fluctuations in the standard two-sector {RBC} model with moderate increasing returns to scale and generalized no-income-effect preferences à la Greenwood, Hercovitz and Huffman [13]. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis enabling us to derive relevant bifurcation loci and to characterize the steady-state local stability properties as a function of various structural parameters. We show that local indeterminacy occurs through flip and Hopf bifurcations for a large set of values for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, provided that the labor supply is sufficiently inelastic. Finally, we provide a detailed quantitative analysis of the model. Computing, on a quarterly basis, a new set of empirical moments related to two broadly defined consumption and investment sectors, we are able to identify, among the set of admissible calibrations consistent with sunspot equilibria, the ones that provide the best fit of the data. The model properly calibrated solves several empirical puzzles traditionally associated with two-sector {RBC} models.

In the present paper, we consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with CIES nonlinear preferences, asymmetric technologies across countries and decreasing returns to scale. It is shown that aggregate instability and endogenous fluctuations may occur due to international trade. In particular, we prove that the integration into a common market on which countries trade the produced good and the capital input may lead to period-two cycles even when the closed-economy equilibrium is saddle-point stable in both countries. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

We examine the impact of balanced-budget consumption taxes on the existence of expectations-driven business cycles in two-sector economies with infinitely-lived households. We prove that, whatever the relative capital intensity difference across sectors, aggregate instability can occur if the consumption tax rate is not too low. Moreover, we show through a numerical exercise based on empirically plausible tax rates that endogenous business-cycle fluctuations may be a source of instability for all OECD countries, including the US.

Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals.