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UID:event-12106@www.amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260430T012725Z
CREATED:20260430T012725Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260430T012725Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:Macro and labor market seminar - Wilhelm Kohler
DTSTART:20250404T103000Z
DTEND:20250404T113000Z
DESCRIPTION:We develop a simple model that endogenously determines both the
  level of trade and the probability of a trade disruption associated with i
 nternational conflict. The model highlights the potential of a fundamental 
 indeterminacy. Specifically\, any pair of countries is likely to end up in 
 one of two equilibria: i) a low level of trade coupled with a high likeliho
 od of a trade disruption\, and ii) a high level of trade coupled with a low
  likelihood of a trade disruption. A third equilibrium in-between these pol
 ar cases is possible but unstable. Based on this insight\, we formulate an 
 empirical prediction that may be examined relying on the gravity model of b
 ilateral trade. Looking at changes in bilateral trade flows within the time
  span between 1966 and 2016\, we find empirical support for the indetermina
 cy hypothesis.\\n\\nContact: Marco Fongoni: marco.fongoni[at]univ-amu.frAle
 xandros Loukas: alexandros.loukas[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: ht
 tps://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/wilhelm-kohler-0
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 16\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/wilhelm-kohler-0
CONTACT:Marco Fongoni: marco.fongoni[at]univ-amu.frAlexandros Loukas: alexa
 ndros.loukas[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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