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UID:event-7774@www.amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260501T021450Z
CREATED:20260501T021450Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260501T021450Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:job market seminar - Ina Hajdini
DTSTART:20210128T130000Z
DTEND:20210128T141500Z
DESCRIPTION:The paper considers a New Keynesian model in which agents form 
 expectations based on a combination of misspecified forecasts and myopia. T
 he proposed expectations formation process is tested against Rational Expec
 tations (RE)\, as well other assumptions about expectations\, with inflatio
 n forecasting data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters. The pa
 per then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the propo
 sed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-
 based Bayesian methods. The paper yields three novel results: (i) Data stro
 ngly prefer the combination of autoregressive misspecified forecasting rule
 s and myopia over other alternatives\, including RE or RE subject to inform
 ation rigidities\; (ii) The best fitting expectations formation process for
  both households and firms is characterized by high degrees of myopia and s
 imple AR(1) forecasting rules\; (iii) Despite the absence of real rigiditie
 s typically found necessary for New Keynesian models with RE\, the estimate
 d model with autoregressive forecasts and myopia generates substantial inte
 rnal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks.\n\nPlus d'informati
 ons: https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/ina-hajdini-0
URL;VALUE=URI:https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en/events/ina-hajdini-0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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