Gilles Dufrénot

  • Faculty

Château Lafarge
Route des Milles
13290 Les Milles
Phone: +33 (0) 413 94 20 11
Aix-Marseille University
Faculty of Economics and Management
Research themes:
Development economics
University of Paris 12
The ECOWAS countries’ growth rates: what makes them similar and what makes them different? A quantile regression analysis, Gilles Dufrénot and Hélène Ehrhart, Canadian Journal of Development Studies / Revue canadienne d'études du développement, Volume 36, Issue 3, pp. 345-365, 2015

This paper uses a quantile regression analysis to investigate differences across the ECOWAS countries of the engine of growth. Specifically, we want to see whether differences in the growth rates are related to domestic factors of economic growth (investment, human capital and financial intermediation), policy variables (inflation and government consumption) and institutional factors (degree of bureaucracy, accountability, corruption and property rights). Our empirical investigation provides evidence of heterogeneity in the determinants of economic growth depending upon the location of countries in the conditional distribution of per-capita GDP growth. We find that in the upper tails of the distribution, governance and institutional variables are more crucial in impacting growth than the standard determinants of growth in the neoclassical growth models. Conversely, for the lower tails of growth distribution, the economic growth seems to depend more heavily on the accumulation of physical capital and on education.

Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa, Fadia Al Hajj, Gilles Dufrénot, Kimiko Sugimoto and Romain Wolf, The Developing Economies, Volume 53, Issue 4, pp. 237-271, 2015

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub-Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.

Managing the fragility of the Eurozone by Paul de Grauwe, Vladimir Borgy, Carine Bouthevillain and Gilles Dufrénot, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Volume 19, Issue 1, pp. 3-11, 2014

This paper discusses sources of self‐fulfilling equilibria in the Eurozone when some governments are highly susceptible to movements of distrust by investors who fear some payment difficulty. Self‐fulfilling prophecies occur when countries become insolvent only because investors fear insolvency. They induce multiple equilibria, some of which correspond to bad equilibria and others to good equilibria. An important issue then is to solve this problem, notably to eliminate the bad equilibria. In the short‐run, the role of the central bank as a lender of last resort is key. But this raises issues about the risk inherent to its intervention (inflation, solvency). In the medium run, macroeconomic policies in the euro are central (structural reforms and the reduction of external imbalances). In the long run, it may be worth proceeding to the consolidation of national budgets and debts, which would protect the countries of being forced with default by the financial markets. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global Imbalances And Financial Sector Instabilities: Introduction, Vladimir Borgy, Carine Bouthevillain and Gilles Dufrénot, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Volume 19, Issue 1, pp. 1-2, 2014

This special issue provides several views about the sources of the current crisis and policy solutions to cope with it. It brings together papers from academic institutions, international organizations and central banks. The first three papers argue that the crisis was triggered by the lack of confidence of the investors in the markets. This was reflected, for instance, in the pricing of the public debt (with an increase in the sovereign debt spreads) and in the reduced syndicated lending in wholesale lending markets. The other three papers focus on policy aspects by analyzing indicators that could serve as early warning signals of increasing stress and vulnerability. The authors propose three set of indicators: policy‐based indicators, some variables used in the macro‐prudential literature and financial indexes. The papers are a selection of papers presented at a Conference on Macroeconomic and financial vulnerability indicators in advanced economies co‐organizes by the Banque de France and the University of Strasbourg on 13–14 September 2013. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Which of the real money gap or nominal money gap helped predict inflation in Europe? A retrospective analysis, Gilles Dufrénot, Roselyne Joyeux and Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Banks and Bank Systems, Issue 3, pp. 91-102, 2014

The question examined in this paper is the following. Assuming that money played a role in the prediction of inflation, which of the nominal money gap or real money gap did the best job in the European countries? Answering this ques- tion helps us to compare the different strategies undertaken by the central banks in the countries that were members of the EMU. In the countries that participated in the Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) and then adopted the Euro, the policy preferences have been dominated by tacking monetary aggregates, while some non-euro countries preferred to focus on the direct effects of real money growth. The authors use panel data econometrics allowing for heterogeneous short-run and long-run dynamics among the countries. An important result is that the real money gap may be equally informative about future inflation. This plays against the dominant view of a quantitative theory approach of inflation in Europe.