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Publications

How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation?Journal articleClaire Alestra, Gilbert Cette, Valérie Chouard et Rémy Lecat, Applied Economics, pp. 1-13, 2023

This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the 2015 Paris Agreement goals of net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming below 2°C in 2100. It uses the Advanced Climate Change Long-term model (ACCL), particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price and technology shocks on CO2 emissions, temperature, climate damage and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The simulations show that without climate policies the warming may be +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. An acceleration in ‘usual’ technical progress not targeted at reducing CO2- even worsens global warming and climate damage. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without ‘green’ technologies. Intervening only via energy prices, e.g. a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy combining energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of ‘clean’ electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of polluting energy sources. None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals.

The impact of ICTs and digitalization on productivity and labor share: evidence from French firmsJournal articleGilbert Cette, Sandra Nevoux et Loriane Py, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Volume 31, Issue 8, pp. 669-692, 2022

Taking advantage of an original firm-level survey carried out by the Banque de France, we empirically investigate how the employment of ICT specialists (in-house and external) and the use of digital technologies (cloud and big data) have an impact on firm productivity and labor share. Our analysis relies on the survey responses in 2018 of 1,065 French firms belonging to the manufacturing sector and with at least 20 employees. To tackle potential endogeneity issues, we adopt an instrumental variable approach as proposed by Bartik (1991, Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies? Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.). The results of our cross-section estimations point to a large effect: ceteris paribus, the employment of ICT specialists and the use of digital technologies improve a firm’s labor productivity by about 23% and its total factor productivity by about 17%. Conversely, the employment of in-house ICT specialists and the use of big data both have a detrimental impact on labor share, of about 2.5 percentage points respectively.

Growth Factors in Developed Countries: A 1960–2019 Growth Accounting DecompositionJournal articleGilbert Cette, Aurélien Devillard et Vincenzo Spiezia, Comparative Economic Studies, Volume 64, Issue 2, pp. 159-185, 2022

Using a new and original database, our paper contributes to the growth accounting literature with three original aspects: First, it covers a long period from the early 60’s to 2019, just before the COVID-19 crisis; second, it analyzes a large set of economies (30 plus the Euro Area) at the country level; finally, it singles out the growth contribution of information and communications technologies (ICTs) capital as well as robots. Our findings show that the main drivers of labor productivity growth over the whole 1960–2019 period appear to have been education, total factor productivity (TFP), non-ICT and non-robot capital deepening. The relative contribution of ICT capital is found to be declining from the mid-2000s, although our country-level economy dataset does not make it possible to estimate the TFP contribution of ICTs. The contribution of robots to productivity growth through capital deepening and TFP appears to be significant in Germany and Japan in the sub-period 1975–1995, in France and Italy in 1995–2005, and in several Eastern European countries in 2005–2019. Our findings also confirm the slowdown in TFP in most countries from at least 1995 onwards. This slowdown is mainly accounted for by a decrease in the contributions of non-ICT non-robot capital deepening and TFP.

Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model1Journal articleClaire Alestra, Gilbert Cette, Valérie Chouard et Rémy Lecat, Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 44, Issue 1, pp. 96-112, 2022

This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries/regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country/regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the “tragedy of the horizon” and the “tragedy of the commons”, which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.

The contribution of robots to productivity growth in 30 OECD countries over 1975–2019Journal articleGilbert Cette, Aurélien Devillard et Vincenzo Spiezia, Economics Letters, Volume 200, pp. 109762, 2021

Using a new and original database, our paper contributes to the growth accounting literature by singling out the contribution of robots through two channels: capital deepening and TFP. The contribution of robots to productivity growth through capital deepening and TFP appears to have been significant in Germany and Japan in the sub-period 1975–1995 and in several Eastern European countries in 2005–2019. However, robotization does not appear to be the source of a significant revival in productivity.

Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the twentieth centuryJournal articleAntonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette et Rémy Lecat, Empirical Economics, Volume 59, Issue 5, pp. 2509-2526, 2020

This study compares GDP per capita levels and growth rates across 17 advanced economies over the period 1890–2013 using an accounting breakdown and runs Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) convergence tests. An overall convergence process has been at work among advanced economies, mainly after WWII, driven mostly by capital intensity and then TFP, while trends in hours worked and employment rates are disparate. However, this convergence process came to a halt during technology shocks, during the two world wars and since the 1990s, with the convergence of advanced economies stopping far from the level of US GDP per capita.

What Do We Know About Economic and Productivity Growth? A Review Article on Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity: Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and ExtensionsJournal articleGilbert Cette, International Productivity Monitor, Volume 39, pp. 74-80, 2020

Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity is not only a book on an essential topic, namely that of "growth and productivity", it is also a fabulous ensemble, bringing together contributions from many top specialists. But, in addition, it is a tribute to Dale W. Jorgenson, who has for decades been an exceptional contributor to gaining a better knowledge of the mechanisms of growth and productivity. The volume is dedicated to him. I was present in January 2020 at the annual IPM dinner at the AEA conference, when a preprint of the book was presented to him by the editor, Barbara Fraumeni. I openly admit that it was a very emotional moment.

La notion actuelle de durée du travail peut-elle résister au coronavirus ?Journal articleJacques Barthelemy et Gilbert Cette, Regards, Volume N°57, Issue 1, pp. 13-20, 2020

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Télétravail et croissance économique : une opportunité à saisirJournal articleGilbert Cette, Futuribles, Volume 437, Issue 4, pp. 77-82, 2020

Voici un cinquième article publié dans le cadre de notre forum « Covid-19 : causes, impacts et stratégies », qui vise à ouvrir les colonnes de Futuribles à divers experts pour évoquer, encore « à chaud », différents aspects, d’ordre économique, social, sanitaire, alimentaire, écologique…, de la crise du Covid-19. Gilbert Cette y montre qu’en dépit des difficultés inhérentes à cette crise sanitaire et aux conséquences économiques qui vont s’ensuivre, il existe aussi une opportunité à saisir dans le domaine du travail. En effet, le confinement et la limitation des déplacements ont permis une large extension du télétravail, qui pourrait perdurer par la suite et permettre, à terme, de relancer la productivité économique, qui semblait en phase d’épuisement depuis plusieurs décennies. S.D.

La restructuration des branches professionnelles : pertinence économique, régime juridique et difficultés de conceptionJournal articleJacques Barthelemy, Gilbert Cette et Gepy Koudadje, Droit Social, Issue 5, pp. 455-463, 2020

L'objectif du chantier de la restructuration des branches est de remplacer un paysage conventionnel morcelé par des branches professionnelles plus cohérentes. Ce processus soulève des difficultés. La réponse à ces difficultés peut résider dans l'articulation renouvelée du dialogue social dans les branches et les entreprises. Un moratoire de quelques années peut être utile à un stade de la restructuration. Explications et analyse de Jacques Barthélémy, avocat et Ancien professeur associé à la faculté de droit de Montpellier, Gilbert Cette, Banque de France et Aix-Marseille University, AMSE et Gepy Koudadje, avocate au Cabinet Flichy Grangé Avocats et chargée d'enseignement université Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne.