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Publications

Measuring World Trade Organization (WTO) Accession Commitments and their Economic EffectsJournal articleVicky Chemutai et Hubert Escaith, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), Volume 8, Issue 02, pp. 1-27, 2017

This paper builds an index to measure the depth of accession commitments and estimate the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. We find that WTO accession has a positive and significant influence on an economy’s trade and investment. The impact of WTO accession on the ratio of trade to gross domestic product is significantly higher than in previous studies on developing countries. Trade in services also tends to increase after accession. Moreover, greater openness does not negatively affect the trade balance of Article XII members. The results on investment, be it domestic or foreign, are also encouraging, but are not fully conclusive.

Aggregate Demand, Vertical Specialization and Growth AccountingJournal articleHubert Escaith, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), Volume 7, Issue 03, pp. 1-20, 2016

Global manufacturing and international supply chains have changed the way trade and economic growth are understood today. Recent statistical advances suggest new ways of looking at growth accounting when global value chains (GVCs) — articulating supply and demand chains from an international perspective — are taken into consideration. The method is applied to the G-20 countries, a group of leading developed and developing economies that took a prominent role in fostering and managing global economic governance. The demand dynamics is first analyzed through a growth-accounting decomposition, then through the long term determinants of income elasticity of imports and the household marginal propensity to consume imported products.

The Evolution of Industrial Networks in East Asia: Stylized Facts and Role of Trade Facilitation PoliciesBook chapterHubert Escaith et Satoshi Inomata, In: Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia: Industry and Firm-level Analysis, 2016, pp. 113-138-Chapitre5, Springer Japan, 2016
Past and present issues in trade statistics. An insider’s viewJournal articleHubert Escaith, Revue de l'OFCE, Volume 140, Issue 4, pp. 37-51, 2015

Trade statistics are perhaps among the oldest official statistics alongside population censuses. Until very recently, trade statistics remained closely tied to their original eighteenth-century purpose of informing the Prince about taxes collected by customs officials; more recently in the mid-twentieth century, they came to serve also in establishing the National Accounts required by the State for managing the economy. Then the world economy became truly global. Trade statistics had to become trans-national and multi-dimensional if they were to be representative of the twenty-first century economic system. The methodology has matured in the 2010s; in the process, trade statistics have gone beyond their initial purpose of serving the State to become a tool for understanding the complex relationships linking various industries across different borders. The resulting information is increasingly used to assess not only the economic dimensions of trade but also its implications in terms of employment and the environment.

Google matrix of the world network of economic activitiesJournal articleVivek Kandiah, Hubert Escaith et Dima L. Shepelyansky, The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Volume 88, Issue 7, pp. 1-20, 2015

Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix G of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995 and 2008. The construction of G, based on Markov chain transitions, treats all countries on equal democratic grounds while the contribution of activity sectors is proportional to their exchange monetary volume. The Google matrix analysis allows to obtain reliable ranking of countries and activity sectors and to determine the sensitivity of CheiRank-PageRank commercial balance of countries in respect to price variations and labor cost in various countries. We demonstrate that the developed approach takes into account multiplicity of network links with economy interactions between countries and activity sectors thus being more efficient compared to the usual export-import analysis. The spectrum and eigenstates of G are also analyzed being related to specific activity communities of countries. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

World trade and income remain exposed to gravityBook chapterHubert Escaith et Sébastien Miroudot, In: CPER- VoxEU Book on 'The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?, 2015-06, Number Chapitre 7, pp. 127-160, Bernard Hoekman, 2015

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Surfing on the Tide? Least-Developed Countries Trade during the Great Global TransitionJournal articleHubert Escaith et Bekele Tamenu, Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, Volume V, Issue 1(9), pp. 32-48, 2015

The rebalancing of global demand towards large emerging countries and the resulting long-lasting cycle of high international commodity prices had a profound impact on LDC trade. This process contributed to a wider geographical diversification of LDCs' exports but led also to a greater reliance on those highly priced commodities. LDCs remain particularly vulnerable to external shocks; the 2008-2009 global crisis and the bumpy transitional recovery that followed illustrate the fragility of the recent trends. A slowdown in the growth of large emerging countries may end the commodity "super-cycle", deepening LDCs' structural trade imbalances. In such a perspective, renewed efforts towards extensive product diversification are called for. Fostering diversification has been supported for many years by preferential market access to develop and –more recently– to emerging countries. But preferences alone are not sufficient to improve the supply-side capabilities of most LDCs. The new business models related to global value chains offer new opportunities to LDCs for export diversification and trade facilitation is one of the key components of this diversification strategy.

Mapping global value chains and measuring trade in tasksBook chapterHubert Escaith, In: Asia and Global Production Networks, 2014, pp. 287-337, Edward Elgar, 2014

This timely book deploys new tools and measures to understand how global production networks change the nature of global economic interdependence, and how that in turn changes our understanding of which policies are appropriate in this new environment. Bringing to bear an array of the latest methods and data to study global value chains, this unique book assesses the evolution of global value chains at the firm level, and how this affects competitiveness in Asia.

Global Value Chains, International Trade Statistics and Policymaking in a Flattening WorldJournal articleHubert Escaith et Alejandro Jara, World Economics, Volume 13, Issue 4, pp. 5-18, 2012

The raise of global production networks since the 1980s changed the way we understand international trade and has profound repercussions on development policies and the conduct of global governance. New comparative advantages allow large developing countries to leap-frog through their industrialization process while smaller economies without large internal market or mining resources are now able to build an industrial base. Offshoring also gave the possibility to firms from industrialised countries to remain competitive in front of fast-expanding firms from emerging countries. But in the process, the relative demand for low and medium skilled workers in industrialised countries contracted, and this employment and income effect became a political issue and fuelled demand for protectionism. Unfortunately, the debate lacks accurate data as traditional statistics give only a blurred picture of what is known as ‘trade in tasks’. Before revising the trade and governance implications, the article calls for a new measurement of international trade based on its value-added content in order to have a better understanding of the actual issues.

Trade collapse, data gaps and the impact of the financial crisis on official statisticsBook chapterHubert Escaith, Andreas Maurer et Marc Auboin, In: Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, Bank for Intern Settlements (Eds.), 2011, Volume 34, pp. 480-487, Bank for International Settlements, 2011

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