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UID:event-11334@www.amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260421T184033Z
CREATED:20260421T184033Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260421T184033Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:phd seminar - Ernesto Ugolini*\, Wilma Ticona Huanca**
DTSTART:20240924T090000Z
DTEND:20240924T103000Z
DESCRIPTION:*This paper examines how democracy and trade integration influe
 nce support for globalization. It investigates the role of democratic proce
 sses\, particularly income redistribution\, in shaping the after-tax effect
 s of trade shocks on support for globalization. I develop a model in which 
 voters choose between protectionist and liberal parties based on their afte
 r-tax income. While trade protection can increase pre-tax income for those 
 negatively affected by trade\, it reduces overall income and the tax base. 
 The model predicts that the impact of trade-induced income inequality on pr
 otectionist voting is moderated by the strength of democratic institutions 
 and their influence over tax policy. To test this\, I construct a panel dat
 aset of 66 democracies from 1950 to 2020\, combining data on trade integrat
 ion\, countries' skill levels\, vote shares\, and democracy scores. Utilizi
 ng improvements in air transportation relative to sea as an instrument for 
 trade integration\, the results show that trade shocks with low-skilled par
 tners affect protectionist vote shares differently based on a country’s d
 emocracy score: in strong democracies\, trade with low-skilled partners inc
 reases protectionist voting\, while in weak democracies\, it decreases. Thi
 s effect is driven by both exports to and imports from low-skilled trade pa
 rtners. Additionally\, trade enhances support for redistributive and protec
 tionist parties\, especially in weak democracies. These findings are furthe
 r validated by district-level analyses within 14 EU countries.**We derive a
 n OLG model to study the effect of demographic transition and aggregate pro
 ductivity growth slowdown on structural changes in employment in agricultur
 e in European countries. The demographic transition in the model is associa
 ted with a significant fall in mortality probabilities\, especially in old 
 age\, a fall in population growth\, and a fall in labor productivity. Overa
 ll\, together with the productivity growth slow down\, it implies an increa
 se in the savings rate and a fall in the interest rate. The higher savings 
 and investments directly affect the employment share in agriculture because
  the agricultural sector has higher capital intensity and capital-labor sub
 stitutability than the rest of the economy. We show that the demographic tr
 ansition alone can account for about 15 percent of the observed fall in agr
 icultural employment in the 1970-2020 period. Together with the TFP growth 
 slowdown\, it can account for about 35 percent of the observed fall in agri
 cultural employment.\\n\\nContact: Philippine Escudié : philippine.escudi
 e[at]univ-amu.frLucie Giorgi : lucie.giorgi[at]univ-amu.frKla Kouadio : kla
 .kouadio[at]univ-amu.frLola Soubeyrand : lola.soubeyrand[at]univ-amu.fr\n\
 nPlus d'informations: https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/ernest
 o-ugolini-wilma-ticona-huanca
LOCATION:Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 11\, AMU - AMSE\, 5-9 boulevard Maur
 ice Bourdet\, 13001 Marseille
URL;VALUE=URI:https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/ernesto-ugolini-wilma-ticona-huanca
CONTACT:Philippine Escudié :&nbsp\;philippine.escudie[at]univ-amu.frLucie 
 Giorgi : lucie.giorgi[at]univ-amu.frKla Kouadio : kla.kouadio[at]univ-amu.f
 rLola Soubeyrand :&nbsp\;lola.soubeyrand[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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