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PRODID:-//AMSE//Event Calendar//FR
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UID:event-9654@www.amse-aixmarseille.fr
DTSTAMP:20260422T141905Z
CREATED:20260422T141905Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260422T141905Z
STATUS:CONFIRMED
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY:phd seminar - Sina Chen
DTSTART:20221108T100000Z
DTEND:20221108T104500Z
DESCRIPTION:Recent failures to predict landmark elections such as the 2016 
 U.S. Presidential race and the Brexit vote have\, rightly or wrongly\, ratt
 led public confidence in election polls and the survey method at large. Why
  polling errors occurred in a given election but not in others often remain
 s a matter of speculation. The aim of this paper is to develop a contextual
  understanding of polling errors and their triggers. To do so\, we cover a 
 broad range of features of the electoral contest which pundits and scholars
  have suspected of encouraging polling errors\, including candidacies\, mob
 ilization\, polarization\, and electoral conduct. Whereas most previous stu
 dies of U.S. Senate elections confound poll bias and sampling variance\, we
  adopt a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach that allows us to disenta
 ngle systematic and random error at the election level\, and then to link e
 lection features to specific error components.\\n\\nContact: Camille Hainna
 ux : camille.hainnaux[at]univ-amu.frDaniela Horta Saenz : daniela.horta-sae
 nz[at]univ-amu.frJade Ponsard : jade.ponsard[at]univ-amu.frNathan Vieira : 
 nathan.vieira[at]univ-amu.fr\n\nPlus d'informations: https://www.amse-aixma
 rseille.fr/fr/evenements/sina-chen
LOCATION:MEGA
URL;VALUE=URI:https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/evenements/sina-chen
CONTACT:Camille Hainnaux : camille.hainnaux[at]univ-amu.frDaniela Horta Sae
 nz : daniela.horta-saenz[at]univ-amu.frJade Ponsard : jade.ponsard[at]univ-
 amu.frNathan Vieira : nathan.vieira[at]univ-amu.fr
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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