Publications
Despite its universal nature, the impact of COVID-19 has not been geographically homogeneous. While certain countries and regions have been severely affected, registering record infection rates and excess deaths, others experienced only milder outbreaks. We investigate to what extent human factors, in particular cultural origins reflected in different attitudes and behavioural norms, can explain different degrees of exposure to the virus. Motivated by the linguistic relativity hypothesis, we take language as a proxy for cultural origins and exploit the exogenous variation in the language spoken around the border that divides the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland to estimate the impact of culture on exposure to COVID-19. The results obtained using a spatial regression discontinuity design reveal, that within 50- and 25- kilometres bandwidth from the language border, the average COVID-19 exposure levels for individuals in French speaking municipalities was higher. In particular, we find that German speaking municipalities were associated with a reduction of around 40% - 50% in the odds of COVID-19 exposure compared to the French speaking municipalities.
We consider a general equilibrium model with vertical preferences, where workers and consumers are differentiated respectively by their sensitivity to effort and their intensity of preference for quality. We consider a public monopoly, i.e. which is owned equally by all individuals. The question is under which conditions the firm will be privatized and at which rate/price. The decisions are taken through majority vote in a plurality system. When the firm is controlled by the State, the price is determined through a vote among all the population. Otherwise, the price is the one which maximizes the profit. We prove that, when the maximum disutility of working in the firm is higher than the maximum utility of consuming its output, privatization may emerge as a possible choice of the majority, even if no hypothesis is made on the efficiency of a private management relative to a public one.
Who registers to vote? Although extensive research has examined the question of who votes, our understanding of the determinants of political participation will be limited until we know who is missing from the voter register. Studying voter registration in lower-income settings is particularly challenging due to data constraints. We link the official voter register with a complete social network census of 16 villages to analyze the correlates of voter registration in rural Uganda, examining the role of individual-level attributes and social ties. We find evidence that social ties are important for explaining registration status within and across households. Village leaders?and through them, household heads?play an important role in explaining the registration status of others in the village, suggesting a diffuse process of social influence. Socioeconomic factors such as income and education do not explain registration in this setting. Together these findings suggest an alternate theory of participation is required.
Le changement climatique, la perte de la biodiversité et l’altération globale de l’environnement détériorent la santé des populations. Plus particulièrement, l’augmentation des périodes marquées par des températures élevées et leur persistance pourraient constituer un risque majeur pour une large part de la population et limiter drastiquement l’activité humaine. Pourtant, les vagues de chaleur sont sous-représentées dans les analyses des événements météorologiques extrêmes, en particulier dans les évaluations économiques. Ce manque d’études, associé à la faible perception par la population du risque lié à la chaleur, limite la mise en place de mesures d’adaptation, alors que les effets des canicules sont en grande partie évitables. Cet article présente l’évolution de l’impact économique global des effets sanitaires des vagues de chaleur observées en France entre 1974 et 2020.
In this paper, we reexamine the predictive power of the yield spread across countries and over time. Using a dynamic panel/dichotomous model framework and a unique dataset covering 13 OECD countries over the period 1975–2019, we empirically show that the yield spread signals recessions. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, controlling for recession risk factors and time sampling. Using a new cluster analysis methodology, we present empirical evidence of a partial homogeneity of the predictive power of the yield spread. Our results provide a valuable framework for monitoring economic cycles.
The pre-Global Financial Crisis build-up, followed by the post-crisis collapse, in bank liquidity creation in developed countries is well-documented (Berger and Bowman, Berger and Bouwman, Review of Financial Studies 22:3779–3837, 2009). Comparable analyses on developing and emerging countries (DECs) have been severely hindered by the lack of detailed bank-by-bank balance sheet data. This paper proposes a new, high-frequency, Aggregate Bank Liquidity Creation (A-BLC) measure for 114 DECs on a comparable cross-country basis, which relies on macroeconomic, country-wide, banking systems’ balance sheet data. The A-BLC database allows us to assess the extent of bank fragility arising from illiquidity associated with intermediation at the banking system level for every DEC, at a monthly frequency over the period 2001–2016. Our measure captures more accurately than other measures proposed in the literature the evolution of bank liquidity creation in the DECs. Stylised facts and panel-regression analysis suggest a sharp pre-crisis build-up and post-crisis fall in liquidity creation in DECs, larger then that observed for developed countries. In addition, financial depth and stability appear as particularly important drivers of A-BLC in DECs.
Senegal introduced the infant hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination in 2004 and recently committed to eliminating hepatitis B by 2030. Updated epidemiological data are needed to provide information on the progress being made and to develop new interventions. We estimated the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in children and adults living in rural Senegal and assessed hepatitis B treatment eligibility. A cross-sectional population-based serosurvey of HBsAg was conducted in 2018-2019 in a large sample (n = 3,118) of residents living in the Niakhar area (Fatick region, Senegal). Individuals positive for HBsAg subsequently underwent clinical and biological assessments. Data were weighted for age and sex and calibrated to be representative of the area's population. Among the 3,118 participants, 206 were HBsAg positive (prevalence, 6.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.6-8.1). Prevalence varied markedly according to age group in individuals aged 0-4, 5-14, 15-34, and >= 35 years as follows: 0.0% (95% CI, 0.00-0.01); 1.5% (95% CI, 0.0-2.3); 12.4% (95% CI, 9.1-15.6); and 8.8% (95% CI, 6.1-11.5), respectively. Of those subsequently assessed, 50.9% (95% CI, 41.8-60.0) had active HBV infection; 4 (2.9%; 95% CI, 0.9-9.4) were eligible for hepatitis B treatment. Conclusion: In this first population-based serosurvey targeting children and adults in rural Senegal, HBsAg prevalence was very low in the former, meeting the World Health Organization's (WHO) < 1% HBsAg 2020 target; however, it was high in young adults (15-34 years old) born before the HBV vaccine was introduced in 2004. To reach national and WHO hepatitis elimination goals, general population testing (particularly for adolescents and young adults), care, and treatment scale-up need to be implemented.
We test the effectiveness of a social comparison nudge (SCN) to enhance lockdown compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic using a French representative sample (N = 1,154). Respondents were randomly assigned to a favorable/unfavorable informational feedback (daily road traffic mobility patterns, in Normandy - a region of France) on peer lockdown compliance. Our dependent variable was the intention to comply with a possible future lockdown. We controlled for risk, time, and social preferences and tested the effectiveness of the nudge. We found no evidence of the effectiveness of the SCN among the whole French population, but the nudge was effective when its recipient and the reference population shared the same geographical location (Normandy). Exploratory results on this subsample (N = 52) suggest that this effectiveness could be driven by noncooperative individuals.
In this paper, we develop an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and calibrate it to the Swedish historical data in order to estimate the economic cost of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic. The model identifies survivors from younger cohorts as main benefactors of the windfall bequests following the influenza mortality shock. We also show that the general equilibrium effects of the pandemic reveal themselves over the wage channel rather than the interest rate, fertility or labor supply channels. Finally, we demonstrate that the influenza mortality shock becomes persistent, driving the aggregate variables to lower steady states which costs the economy 1.819% of the output loss over the next century.
L’aide internationale au planning familial est dominée par un bailleur de fonds, les États-Unis, dont l’allocation dépend de débats nationaux autour de l’avortement. Cet article examine comment les autres donateurs ajustent leur financement en réaction.Codes JEL : C26, F35, I15, I18, J13, O15.
