Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
Why is the Interest Rate an Inverted Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Activity in the United States?Journal articlePatrick Pintus, Rue de la Banque, Issue 49, pp. 1-5, 2017

The real interest rate at which US firms borrow funds to finance their investment and other expenses has two striking features. It is low when GDP is high (and vice versa) and it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity. Low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. This Rue de la Banque shows that inherent to such correlations is a redistribution channel through which resources typically flow from lending entities to borrowing firms during expansions. Such a redistribution channel is driven by expectations about future levels of the borrowing cost, which accounts for a large share of the volatility of output, investment and other macroeconomic variables during business cycles.

Risk Measure InferenceJournal articleChristophe Hurlin, Sébastien Laurent, Rogier Quaedvlieg et Stephan Smeekes, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Volume 35, Issue 4, pp. 499-512, 2017

We propose a bootstrap-based test of the null hypothesis of equality of two firms’ conditional risk measures (RMs) at a single point in time. The test can be applied to a wide class of conditional risk measures issued from parametric or semiparametric models. Our iterative testing procedure produces a grouped ranking of the RMs, which has direct application for systemic risk analysis. Firms within a group are statistically indistinguishable from each other, but significantly more risky than the firms belonging to lower ranked groups. A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that our test has good size and power properties. We apply the procedure to a sample of 94 U.S. financial institutions using ΔCoVaR, MES, and %SRISK. We find that for some periods and RMs, we cannot statistically distinguish the 40 most risky firms due to estimation uncertainty.

Le panel de médecins généralistes de ville : éclairages sur les enjeux de la médecine de premier recours d’aujourd’huiJournal articlePierre Verger, Aurélie Bocquier, Marie-Christine Bournot, Jean-François Buyck, Hélène Carrier, Hélène Chaput, Julien Giraud, Thomas Hérault, Simon Filippi, Claire Marbot, et al., Revue française des affaires sociales, Issue 3, pp. 213-235, 2017
Austérité budgétaire : remède ou poison ? La zone euro à l'épreuve de la criseBookMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot, Anne Péguin-Feissolle et Michel Aglietta, 2017-10, 150 pages, ATLANDE, 2017

Alors que les politiques d'austérité et les réformes budgétaires décidées par la zone euro ont un impact de plus en plus perceptible sur les millions de citoyens européens, ce livre tente d'offrir une réponse aux questionnements qui traversent l'opinion publique. Au-delà d'un état des lieux de la zone euro, ce livre interroge la pertinence des choix d austérité et pose la question des ajustements à mettre en oeuvre dans une union monétaire entre pays hétérogènes.

A justification of whistleblowingJournal articleManohar Kumar et Daniele Santoro, Philosophy & Social Criticism, Volume 43, Issue 7, pp. 669-684, 2017

Whistleblowing is the act of disclosing information from a public or private organization in order to reveal cases of corruption that are of immediate or potential danger to the public. Blowing the whistle involves personal risk, especially when legal protection is absent, and charges of betrayal, which often come in the form of legal prosecution under treason laws. In this article we argue that whistleblowing is justified when disclosures are made with the proper intent and fulfill specific communicative constraints in addressing issues of public interest. Three communicative constraints of informativeness, truthfulness and evidence are discussed in this regard. We develop a ‘harm test’ to assess the intent for disclosures, concluding that it is not sufficient for justification. Along with the proper intent, a successful act of whistleblowing should provide information that serves the public interest. Taking cognizance of the varied conceptions of public interest, we present an account of public interest that fits the framework of whistleblowing disclosures. In particular, we argue that whistleblowing is justified inter alia when the information it conveys is of a presumptive interest for a public insofar as it reveals an instance of injustice or violation of a civil or political right done against and unbeknown to some members of a polity.

Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic developmentJournal articleCharles D. Brummitt, Kenan Huremović, Paolo Pin, Matthew H. Bonds et Fernando Vega-Redondo, Nature Human Behaviour, Volume 1, Issue 9, pp. 665-672, 2017

Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions—delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft and government failures—that systematically thwart the production process. To understand how these disruptions affect economic development, we modelled an evolving input–output network in which disruptions spread contagiously among optimizing agents. The key finding was that a poverty trap can emerge: agents adapt to frequent disruptions by producing simpler, less valuable goods, yet disruptions persist. Growing out of poverty requires that agents invest in buffers to disruptions. These buffers rise and then fall as the economy produces more complex goods, a prediction consistent with global patterns of input inventories. Large jumps in economic complexity can backfire. This result suggests why ‘big push’ policies can fail and it underscores the importance of reliability and gradual increases in technological complexity.

The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining RD and a Behavioral ModelJournal articleOlivier Bargain et Karina Doorley, Journal of Human Resources, Volume 52, Issue 4, pp. 1032-1059, 2017

Natural experiments provide robust identifying assumptions for the estimation of policy effects. Yet their use for policy design is often limited by the difficulty of extrapolating on the basis of reduced-form estimates. In this study, we exploit an age condition in the eligibility for social assistance in France, which lends itself to a regression discontinuity (RD) design. We suggest to make the underlying labor supply model explicit, i.e. to translate the reduced-form discontinuity in terms of discontinuous changes in disposable incomes. This exercise shows the potential of combining natural experiments and behavioral models. In particular, we can test the external validity of the combined approach. We find that it predicts the effect of a subsequent reform, which extends transfers to the working poor, remarkably well. The model is then used to simulate the extension of social assistance to young people and finds that a transfer program with an in-work component would not create further disincentives to work in this population.

Low prices cum selective distribution versus high prices: how best to signal quality?Journal articleNada Ben Elhadj et Didier Laussel, Applied Economics, Volume 49, Issue 44, pp. 4440-4459, 2017

We investigate the best signalling strategy for a monopoly introducing a new product with unobservable quality when second-period sales are linked to first-period ones and the firm may tailor its distribution network to exclude some consumers. When producing a high quality product rather than a low quality one is relatively costly with respect to the increase in quality, optimal signalling is by price alone. But when the cost differential is lower, it will be optimal to set a low first-period price, not to serve all would-be consumers at this price (selective distribution) and raise the price afterwards. Paradoxically, this strategy allows a larger customer base to be reached than in the case of pure price signalling.

Recension de John Locke, "Écrits monétaires par John Locke", traduits par Florence Briozzo sous la direction scientifique d’André Tiran, préfaces du traducteur et du directeur, Paris, Editions Classiques Garnier, collection « Écrits sur l’économie », 2011Journal articleGilles Campagnolo, Cités, Volume 70, Issue 2, pp. 195-199, 2017

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Broken-Heart, Common Life, Heterogeneity: Analyzing the Spousal Mortality DependenceJournal articleYang Lu, ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, Volume 47, Issue 3, pp. 837-874, 2017

Using data on joint annuities, we conduct an analysis of the inter-couple lifetime dependence. We estimate a mixed proportional hazards model with treatment effects, which disentangles the broken-heart syndrome from the spurious risk dependence induced by unobserved heterogeneities. We use a flexible semi-parametric distribution for the unobserved heterogeneities to allow for either positive or negative spurious risk dependence. We find that the effect of losing one's spouse is asymmetric for the two sexes. Moreover, although the broken-heart syndrome explains a large portion of the dependency, there is evidence of positive spurious risk dependence. These findings have important implications for the pricing of joint insurance products. Failure to take into account either of these two effects leads to pricing error that can be either positive or negative, depending on the characteristics of the couple.