La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
Bubble on real estate: the role of altruism and fiscal policyJournal articleLise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard et Thomas Seegmuller, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 23, Issue 4, pp. 20190020, 2019

In this paper, we are interested in the interplay between real estate bubble, aggregate capital accumulation and taxation in an overlapping generations economy with altruistic households. We consider a three-period overlapping generations model with three key elements: altruism, portfolio choice, and financial market imperfections. Households realise different investment decisions in terms of asset at different periods of life, face a binding borrowing constraint and leave bequests to their children. We show that altruism plays a key role on the existence of a productive real estate bubble, i.e. a bubble in real estate raising physical capital stock and aggregate output. The key mechanism relies on the fact that a real estate bubble raises income of retired households. Because of higher bequests, there children are able to invest more in productive capital. Introducing fiscal policy, we show that raising real estate taxation dampens capital accumulation.

Real Estate Prices and Corporate Investment: Theory and Evidence of Heterogeneous Effects across FirmsJournal articleDenis Fougère, Rémy Lecat et Simon Ray, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 51, Issue 6, pp. 1503-1546, 2019

In this paper, we investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.

The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry tradesJournal articleEric Girardin et Fatemeh Salimi Namin, Economic Modelling, Volume 81, Issue C, pp. 422-439, 2019

In this study, we investigate monthly seasonality in the foreign exchange market. Given the well-known recurrent higher returns in some month than in others in stock markets around the world, we consider it likely that a seasonal outperformance of a country’s stock market over another is associated with similar seasonal patterns in capital flows and exchange rates. A seasonal profit (carry trade) opportunity can be created by the simultaneous appreciation of a country’s currency and the outperformance of its stock market. By focusing on the world’s key currency pairs, the US dollar-Deutsche mark and the US dollar-euro, and by using a Markov-switching framework, we document persistent January and December effects in the foreign exchange market from 1971 to 2017. Analysis of the German-US stock returns differential and their bilateral capital flows reveal similar month effects in 65% of the whole sample.

Competitive equilibrium cycles for small discounting in discrete-time two-sector optimal growth modelsJournal articleAlain Venditti, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 23, Issue 4, pp. 1-14, 2019

We study the existence of endogenous competitive equilibrium cycles under small discounting in a two-sector discrete-time optimal growth model. We provide precise concavity conditions on the indirect utility function leading to the existence of period-two cycles with a critical value for the discount factor that can be arbitrarily close to one. Contrary to the continuous-time case where the existence of periodic-cycles is obtained if the degree of concavity is close to zero, we show that in a discrete-time setting the driving condition does not require a close to zero degree of concavity but a symmetry of the indirect utility function’s concavity properties with respect to its two arguments.

The love for children hypothesis and the multiplicity of fertility ratesJournal articlePaolo Melindi-Ghidi et Thomas Seegmuller, Journal of Mathematical Economics, Volume 83, Issue C, pp. 89-100, 2019

As illustrated by some French departments, how can we explain the existence of equilibria with different fertility and growth rates in economies with the same fundamentals, preferences, technologies and initial conditions? To answer this question we develop an endogenous growth model with altruism and love for children. We show that independently from the type of altruism, a multiplicity of equilibria might emerge if the degree of love for children is high enough. We refer to this condition as the love for children hypothesis. Then, the fertility rate is determined by expectations on the future growth rate and the dynamics are not path-dependent. Our model is able to reproduce different fertility behaviours in a context of completed demographic transition independently from fundamentals, preferences, technologies and initial conditions.

Country Factors and Investment Decision-Making Process of Sovereign Wealth FundsJournal articleJeanne Amar, Bertrand Candelon, Christelle Lecourt et Zhou Xun, Economic Modelling, Volume 80, pp. 34-48, 2019

We examine in this paper the complex decision-making processes that lead to investment location choice of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). Using a two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, we find that country-level factors do not have the same impact on the investment decision and the amount to invest and that SWFs tend to invest more frequently and with higher amounts in countries in which they already have invested. More specifically, we find that SWFs prefer to invest in countries with higher political stability, whereas they are more prone to investing for large amounts in countries that are less democratic and more financially opened. Our results also lend support to the idea that SWFs are prudent in the choice of target country concerning their investment decision but behave as more opportunistic investors concerning the amounts to be invested.

On the optimality of path-dependent structured funds: The cost of standardizationJournal articlePhilippe Bertrand et Jean-Luc Prigent, European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 277, Issue 1, pp. 333-350, 2019

This paper examines the suitability of an important class of standard financial structured products, namely those whose performances are based on smoothing the return of a given risky underlying asset while providing a guarantee at maturity. Using various assumptions about the customers attitudes towards risk, we show that such standardized products are not optimal, even if the financial market volatility is constant. As a by-product, we provide in particular the optimal portfolio value in the regret/rejoice framework to go further with the notion of aversion of getting a return smaller than the risk-free one. Using the notion of compensating variation, we determine for the first time, the monetary losses of providing these standardized products instead of the optimal ones to the customers. We show that these monetary losses can be very significant when the volatility of the risky asset is stochastic. From the operational point of view, such results highly suggest to trade on the Volatility Index (VIX) and/or to introduce derivatives written on it, when selling standardized funds in order to better meet investors needs and preferences.

Option-Based performance participationJournal articleRudi Zagst, Julia Kraus et Philippe Bertrand, Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 105, Issue C, pp. 44-61, 2019

The purpose of this article is to introduce and analyze the option-based performance participation (OBPP) as performance participation method based on a portfolio consisting of two risky assets. By generalizing the provided guarantee to a participation in the performance of a second risky underlying, this new kind of strategies allows to cope with well-known problems associated with standard portfolio insurance methods, especially in times of low or even negative interest rates. However, the minimum guaranteed portfolio value at the end of the investment horizon is not deterministic anymore, but subject to systematic risk instead. Hence, we compare the newly introduced OBPP with the option-based portfolio insurance (OBPI) in various dimensions such as terminal payoffs, mean-variance efficiency and stochastic dominance. To do this, general analytical expressions for all moments of the payoff distributions of the two strategies are derived. Furthermore, we show how an OBBP can be designed so that it stochastically dominates a given OBPI (with a given probability) while retaining the potential for a participation in rising markets via a so-called reserve asset. Numerical case studies show how the proposed concept can be easily implemented for practical applications.

Linear Quantile Regression and Endogeneity CorrectionJournal articleChristophe Muller, Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Volume 9, Issue 5, pp. 1-6, 2019

The main two methods of endogeneity correction for linear quantile regressions with their advantages and drawbacks are reviewed and compared. Then, we discuss opportunities of alleviating the constant effect restriction of the fitted-value approach by relaxing identification conditions.

Empirical evidence on the long and short run determinants of health expenditure in the Arab worldJournal articleKarim Barkat, Rashid Sbia et Youcef Maouchi, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Volume 73, Issue C, pp. 78-87, 2019

This paper empirically examines the determinants of health care spending for 18 Arab world countries for the period 1995–2015 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We conducted the same estimations for 3 sub-samples, namely high-income, upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries to reduce the heterogeneity among them. Our empirical findings demonstrate that health care expenditure and its determinants are non-stationary, and revealed the existence of a long run relationship among variables. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that income is not the only driver of health expenditure in the Arab world countries in the long run. Other variables such as medical progress and ageing population are also playing an important role in the increase of health care expenditure with major policy implications for the region in the long run. Furthermore, the results support that health care expenditure is a necessity good for the three income groups. Finally, the Pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship between health care expenditures and income for the full sample, as well as for the groups income.