Revolutions are often perceived as the key event triggering the fall of an autocratic regime. They are believed to be driven by the people with the purpose of establishing a democratic regime for the people. However, the historical record does not agree with this picture: revolutions are rare, elite-driven, and often non-democratising. We first develop a new set of stylised facts summarising and deepening the latter features. Second, to explain these facts, we develop a theory of elite-driven non-democratising institutional changes triggered by popular uprisings. Our model includes four key ingredients: (i) a minority/majority split in the population; (ii) the persistence of fiscal particularism post-revolution; (iii) the presence of windfall resources; (iv) a distinction between labour income and resource windfalls as well as endogeneity of the labour supply. We show that revolutions are initiated by the elite and only when fractionalisation is moderate. Resource windfalls and labour market repression can also play a role in triggering this 'alliance' between the majority and the elite. If a revolution happens, redistribution in the subsequent regime still favours the elite, although the masses are better off.
Mots clés: dominant minorities, elite-led revolutions, social structures, particularism, resources
While the educational expansion of the 20 th century promoted social mobility overall, the top of the social hierarchy may have remained privileged. This paper examines the evolution of intergenerational mobility in admissions to the French elite colleges-the Grandes Écoles (GE)-over more than a century. Admission to these institutions is subject to partially anonymous competitive examinations, and their degrees are the ticket to top positions in the public and private sectors. In the growing literature measuring intergenerational mobility through surnames, I design a novel method and apply it to a self-collected dataset on all 285,286 graduates from ten of the most prestigious Grandes Écoles between 1886 and 2015. Principally, I find that children of male GE graduates were highly over-represented in the top colleges throughout the 20 th century. Importantly, unlike previous studies exploiting fathers' socio-professional categories, I find a stable low level of intergenerational mobility for all cohorts born since 1916: chances of GE admission for children of GE graduates were approximately 80 times higher than for the rest of the population.
Mots clés: intergenerational mobility, higher education, elites, Grandes Ecoles, historical economics
We consider public goods games played on a potentially non-symmetric network and provide comparative statics results on individual and aggregate contributions, as well as on the effect of transfers between players. We show that, contrary to the case of the complete and symmetric network, a positive shock on a player can have adverse consequences. First, it could actually decrease this player's contribution, unless the interaction matrix is a P-matrix. Second, a positive shock on a contributing player increases aggregate contributions, but a positive shock on a non-contributing player will decrease aggregate contributions, even if the player who benefited from the positive shock increases his own contribution. In each case we provide simple conditions to determine whether a positive shock will have positive or negative consequences on contributions, by looking at the unconstrained solution of an alternative, associated game. The sign of the coordinates of this solution determines the effect of a shock. With this in hand, we further show that the aggregate neutrality result of Andreoni  regarding transfers between players generally does not hold on non-symmetric networks and provide conditions for it to hold. Finally, as an application of previous results, we consider introducing agents that follow Kantian moral principles and show that, depending on their position in the network, the presence of Kantian agents can, counter-intuitively, lead to a decrease in aggregate contributions.
Mots clés: public Goods, Network, comparative Statics, kantian players
Mexican cities along the US-Mexico border, especially Cd. Juarez became notorious due to high femicide rates supposedly associated with maquiladora industries and the NAFTA. Nonetheless, statistical evaluation of data from 1990 to 2012 shows that their rates are consistent with other Mexican cities’ rates and tend to fall with increased employment opportunities in maquiladoras. Femicide rates in Cd. Juarez are in most years like rates in Cd. Chihuahua and Ensenada and, as a share of overall homicide rates, are lower than in most cities evaluated. These results challenge conventional wisdom and most of the literature on the subject.
Mots clés: maquiladoras, crime, gender violence, violence against women, homicide, femicide, border, Mexico, Juarez
In this paper, we use tools from network theory to trace the properties of the matching function to the structure of granular connections between applicants and firms. We link seemingly disparate parts of the literature and recover existing functional forms as special cases. Our overarching message is that structure counts. For rich structures, captured by non-random networks, the matching function depends on whole sets rather than just the sizes of the two sides of the market. For less rich-random network-structures it depends on the sizes of the two sides and a few structural parameters. Structures characterized by greater asymmetries reduce the matching function's efficacy, while denser structures can have ambiguous effects on it. For the special case of the Erdös-Rényi network, we show that the way the network varies with the sizes of the two sides of the market determines if the matching function exhibits constant returns to scale, or even if it is of a specific functional form, such as CES.
In a linear economy, manufacturing is less costly and more profitable than remanufacturing because of reduced private costs of utilization and production. However, manufacturing also involves higher resource extraction and waste as externalized costs than remanufacturing. We use a vintage capital framework to assess technological innovations in remanufacturing and their potential benefits to society and human occupations. Our study shows that replacing manufacturing with remanufacturing technologies creates positive static and dynamic circular economy externalities. These externalities can be quantified to assess improvements in social outcomes. A smartphone remanufacturing innovation case study is presented as an illustration of the article's main ideas. Future research should investigate additional specific cases to develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the impact of remanufacturing innovations on social outcomes. This will provide valuable insights into the broader implications of remanufacturing practices.
Mots clés: manufacturing, externalities, occupational meaning, circular economy, sustainability, national accounting systems
In this article we argue that the disruptive social implications of skill-replacing technological innovations are determined neither by human characteristics, such as "low skills" or "low cognition," nor by task characteristics, such as "routine," as it is typically assumed in the predominant economics and management science literature, but by the cybernetic characteristics of the innovations. We also propose that the negative effects of technological disruptions on human well-being cannot be fully understood without the use of a transdisciplinary approach involving cybernetics science and occupational science, and that it is urgent that policymakers look beyond their narrow effects on productivity and on the labor force, and consider instead the complexity of the interactions between cybernetic technologies and meaningful human occupations. We offer as an example the case of the fast adoption of online food delivery services and of remote work technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethical implications are derived from the arguments.
Mots clés: technological disruptions, technological innovations, cybernetics science, occupational science, labor and nonlabor occupations
The article examines stock index price responses in Brazil, Chile and Mexico to those in the US, Spain and four European countries during three sub-periods surrounding the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s: 1988 to 1994, 1995 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004, using VAR modeling. It finds that equity markets became more interconnected as countries opened to international trade and capital flows, and that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets. Stronger economic linkages (more trade and foreign direct investment) between Spain and these countries, specially in Brazil, seem to explain increased equity markets interconnectedness.
Mots clés: Emerging markets, Latin America, Spain, Stock markets interdependence, VAR modeling
Several representativeness issues affect the available data sources in studying populations' income distributions. High-income under-reporting and non-response issues have been evidenced to be particularly significant in the literature, due to their consequence in underestimating income growth and inequality. This paper bridges several past parametric modelling attempts to account for high-income data issues in making parametric inference on income distributions at the population level. A unified parametric framework integrating parametric income distribution models and popular data replacing and reweighting corrections is developped. To exploit this framework for empirical analysis, an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach is developped. This approach updates prior beliefs on the population income distribution and the high-income data issues pressumably affecting the available data by attempting to reproduce the observed income distribution under simulations from the parametric model. Applications on simulated and EU-SILC data illustrate the performance of the approach in studying population-level mean incomes and inequality from data potentially affected by these high-income issues.
Mots clés: 'Missing rich', GB2, Bayesian inference
Recent empirical analysis of income distributions are often limited by the exclusive availability of data in a grouped format. This data format is made particularly restrictive by a lack of information on the underlying grouping mechanism and sampling variability of the grouped-data statistics it contains. These restrictions often result in the unavailability of an analytical parametric likelihood function exploiting all information available in the grouped data. Building on recent methods for inference on parametric income distributions for this type of data, this paper explores a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. ABC overcomes the restrictions posed by grouped data for Bayesian inference through a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood function exploiting simulated data from the income distribution model. Empirical applications of the proposed ABC method in both simulated and World Bank's PovCalNet data illustrate the performance and suitability of the method for the typical formats of grouped data on incomes.
Mots clés: Grouped data, Bayesian inference, Generalized Lorenz curve, GB2
As physics provides the equations of motion of a body, this paper formulates, for the first time, at the conceptual and mathematical levels, the inequations of motion of an individual seeking to meet his needs and quasi needs in an adaptive (not myopic) way. Successful (failed) dynamics perform a succession of moves, which are, at once, satisficing and worthwhile (free from too many sacrifices), or not. They approach or reach desires (fall in traps). They balance the desired speed of approach to a desired end (a distal promotion goal) with the size of the required immediate sacrifices to go fast (a proximal prevention goal). Therefore, each period, need/quasi need satisfaction success requires enough self control to be able to make, in the long run, sufficient progress in need/quasi need satisfaction without enduring, in the short run, too big sacrifices. A simple example (lose or gain weight) shows that the size of successful moves must be not too small and not too long. A second paper will solve this problem, using variational principles and inexact optimizing algorithms in mathematics. This strong multidisciplinary perspective refers to a recent mathematical model to psychology: the variational rationality theory of human life stay and change dynamics.
Mots clés: need satisfaction, speed of progress, sacrifices, dynamical system, variational rationality
We investigate the role of ENSO climate patterns on global economic conditions. The estimated model is based on a rich and novel monthly dataset for 20 economies, capturing 80.2% of global output (based on 2021 IMF data) over the period 1999:01 to 2022:03. The empirical evidence from an estimated global vector autoregression with local projections (GFAVLP) model links an El Niño (EN) shock with higher output and inflation, corresponding with lower global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). While a shock to the world oil and food price is inflationary, a food price shock leads to elevated GEPU, more so during a LN shock. A main finding is that an increase of the food price can be a source of global vulnerability. The findings indicate that the weather shock impact on global economic conditions is dependent on the climate state. Our result undermines existing studies connecting climate change and economic damage via statistical approach.
Mots clés: Weather; Oil and Food Prices; Global Macroeconometric Modeling; and Economic Policy Uncertainty
This paper provides a general and formalized theory of self-regulation success and failures as an application of the recent Variational rationality approach of stay and change human dynamics (Soubeyran, 2009, 2010, 2021.a,b,c,d). For concreteness purposes, it starts with an example in psychology: how to gain or to loose weight ? It ends with a general, conceptual, dynamical and computable formulation of self-regulation and goal pursuit in the context of variational principles and adaptive optimizing algorithms in mathematics.
Mots clés: variational rationality, self regulation, variational principles, adaptive optimizing algorithms
This paper investigates whether or not the access to and use of ICT can help African countries reduce their growth inefficiencies. Inefficiency is measured, on the one hand, by the gap between a country's growth rate and its own frontier, and on the other hand by the relative position of each country compared to the best achievers. We find that if countries were doing a better job of controlling corruption and improving citizen participation in politics, they would achieve higher growth efficiency performance by using ICT. When countries are compared with each other, considering the growth "frontier" as countries in the sample, then growth differentials are explained primarily by non-ICT factors of growth (human capital, schooling rates, capital growth rates, etc.). The role of ICT factors is secondary. But they contribute to growth to a greater extent for the best achievers (compared to the lowest and middle achievers) because they are better endowed with ICT factors than the others.
Mots clés: ICT, African countries, growth inefficiency, frontier, quantiles
We examine the efficiency and environmental consequences of assigning species-specific common-property rights, considering a Lotka-Volterra model in which fisheries are specialized in the harvesting of a single species. We show that the fragmentation of the ecosystem implies the tragedy of the anticommons even when fisheries compete for the resource. Indeed, contrasting the private exploitation equilibrium with the socially optimal solution, we demonstrate that the predator stock is too high while the prey stock is too low under private property rights. A puzzling result is that the "abundant" species is actually underused because of insufficient economic incentives; however, the scarce and high-priced species does not necessarily suffer from overexploitation. Biological interactions are consequently the main driver of stock depletion. Finally, we investigate how to simultaneously solve both the tragedy of the commons and that of the anticommons and analyze the economic costs of regulating only the tragedy of the commons.
Mots clés: exclusive property rights, common-pool resource, anticommons, fisheries, prey-predator relationship, optimal control
This paper uses a novel dataset on ethnic warfare to shed light on how conflict affects social identification and cohesion. A large body of anecdotal studies suggests that ethnic identities become more salient at times of conflict. Using data from eighteen sub-Saharan countries, I provide econometric evidence for such a claim. The effect of ethnic conflict on various measures of social cohesion is also investigated, uncovering a positive relationship between the two. The finding is understood as a result of the ethnocentric dynamics generated by conflict: as ethnic warfare increases ethnic identification, in-group cooperation follows suit. This parochial interpretation is further strengthened by the use of remote violence and the conditionality of conflict-induced pro-social behaviour on low levels of ethnic polarisation.
Mots clés: ethnic conflict, social cohesion, identity, Africa
We develop a model of incomplete employment contracts such that employees have some discretion over effort, which depends on their work morale. Nominal wage cuts have a strong negative effect on morale, while employee involvement in workplace decision-making tends to increase morale. We derive predictions on how these two mechanisms affect the decisions of firms to cut nominal wages. Using matched employer-employee and manager survey data from Great Britain, we find support for our model: nominal wage cuts are only half as likely when managers think that employees have some discretion over how they perform their work, but this reduced likelihood recovers partially when employees are involved in the decision-making process at their workplace.
Mots clés: wage rigidity; reciprocity; workplace relations; employer-employee data
Worrisome topics, such as climate change, economic crises, or the Covid-19 pandemic, are increasingly present and pervasive due to digital media and social networks. Do such worries affect cognitive performance? The effect of a distressing topic might be very different depending on whether people have the scope and means to cope with the consequences. It can also differ by how performance is rewarded, for instance, if is there a goal that people can focus on. In an online experiment during the Covid-19 pandemic, we test how the cognitive performance of university students responds to topics discussing (i) current mental health issues related to social restrictions or (ii) future labor market uncertainties linked to the economic contraction. Moreover, we study how the response is affected by a performance goal by conditioning payout on reaching a minimum level. We find that the labor market topic increases cognitive performance when performance is motivated by a goal. Conversely, there is no such effect after the mental health topic. We even find a weak negative effect among those mentally vulnerable when payout is not based on reaching a goal. The positive effect is driven by students with larger financial and social resources, pointing at an inequality-widening mechanism.
Mots clés: cognitive performance, financial worries, COVID-19, financial incentives, anxiety, coping behaviors
This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO 2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO 2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a 'business as usual' scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in 'usual technical progress'-not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity-makes global warming and climate damage worse than the 'business as usual' scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO 2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of non-carbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources. None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals.
Mots clés: climate, global warming, Technology, Environmental policy, growth, long-term projections, Uncertainties, Renewable energy