Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidenceJournal articleCéline Gimet, Thomas Lagoarde-Segot et Luis Reyes-Ortiz, Economic Modelling, Volume 81, pp. 89-110, Forthcoming

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.

What Drives European Football Clubs’ Stock Returns and Volatility?Journal articleCéline Gimet et Sandra Montchaud, International Journal of the Economics of Business, Volume 23, Issue 3, pp. 351-390, Forthcoming

The article studies the main determinants of European football clubs’ stock returns and volatility. A panel-data analysis of a sample of 24 European football clubs was conducted to test the influence of several variables, based on a matrix of internal/external and real/financial dimensions, on both stock returns and their volatility. The results show that clubs’ stock returns are influenced by the real and financial context and by a set of internal variables such as profit considered as a reflection of accounting discipline, capitalization as an indicator of size and stadium attendance as a proxy indicator of reputation. The volatility of stock returns seems particularly vulnerable to the overall instability on stock markets and dependent on clubs’ profit and net players’ transfers and, to a lesser extent, on sporting outcomes.

Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: The importance of banking and financial regional criteriaJournal articleCéline Gimet, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Volume 17, Issue 4, pp. 317-335, Forthcoming

The last financial crises have revealed the vulnerability of many emerging countries. Yet, within an economically integrated area, some groups of countries have been spared the disastrous consequences of these crises. The purpose of this article is to underline the similarities between these countries in order to draw up a set of regional criteria that would protect an area against speculative attacks. Using a probit analysis, we show that the convergence of some banking and financial indicators towards reference levels guarantees the confidence of international lenders, which in turn limits financial contagion. A narrow margin between the amount of external debt, in particular the short-term debt of the country and a reference level constitutes a protection against the risk of illiquidity. Similarly, a low domestic credit in comparison with the international reserves of the economy is also an indicator of the sustainability of an area for international lenders that ensures its stock exchange stability.

The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisisJournal articleMarie-Hélène Gagnon et Céline Gimet, Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 37, Issue 11, pp. 4599-4614, Forthcoming

This paper evaluates the domestic and international impacts of lowering short-term interest rates and increasing budget spending on several indicators of liquidity, volatility, credit and economic activity. Data from the 2003–2011 period in the United States, the Euro zone and Canada were used to develop two SVAR models for assessing the national effectiveness and the international spillovers of monetary and budgetary policies during the credit freeze crisis. While monetary policies caused a temporary decrease in volatility and increase in liquidity in North American stock markets, the shocks were mainly domestic and ineffective at generating liquidity in the banking sector. In contrast, government spending shocks had a positive impact on credit and consumption, especially in Europe and Canada. Moreover, budgetary policies also had a positive international spillover effect on consumption and credit, especially for smaller economies such as Canada.

Endogenous Fragility in Microfinance: Evidence from IndiaBook chapterCéline Gimet et Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, May 21, 2013, pp. 63-88, IMPERIAL COLLEGE PRESS, Forthcoming
Ranking populations in terms of inequality of health opportunity: A flexible latent type approachJournal articlePaolo Brunori, Alain Trannoy et Caterina Francesca Guidi, Health Economics, Volume n/a, Issue n/a, Forthcoming

We offer a flexible latent type approach to rank populations according to unequal health opportunities. Building upon the latent-class method, an approch increasingly adopted to estimate health inequalities, our contribution is to let the number of socioeconomic groups considered vary to obtain an opportunity-inequality curve for a population that gives how the between-type inequality varies with the number of types. A population A is said to have less inequality of opportunity than population B if its curve is statistically below that of population B. This version of the latent class approach allows for a robust ranking of 31 European countries regarding inequality of opportunity in health.

Violence against Rich Ethnic Minorities: A Theory of Instrumental ScapegoatingJournal articleYann Bramoullé et Pauline Morault, Economica, Forthcoming

Historically and in many parts of the developing world, ethnic minorities have played a central role in the economy. Examples include Chinese throughout Southeast Asia, Indians in East Africa, and Jews in medieval Europe. These rich minorities are often subject to popular violence and extortion, and are treated ambiguously by local politicians. We analyze the impact of the presence of a rich ethnic minority on violence and on interactions between a rent-seeking local elite and a poor majority. We find that the local elite can always make use of the rich minority to maintain its hold on power. When the threat of violence is high, the government may change its economic policies strategically to sacrifice the minority to popular resentment. We investigate the conditions under which such instrumental scapegoating emerges, and the forms it takes. We then introduce some social integration capturing, for instance, mixed marriages and shared education. Social integration reduces violence and yields qualitative changes in economic policies. Overall, our results help explain documented patterns of violence and segregation.

Population preferences for inclusive COVID-19 policy responsesJournal articleThierry Blayac, Dimitri Dubois, Sebastien Duchêne, Phu Nguyen-Van, Bruno Ventelou et Marc Willinger, The Lancet Public Health, Forthcoming

Currently, countries across the world are applying policies designed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, such as lockdowns, international travel restrictions, subsectoral closures, and adjustments in public transportation. Although these restrictions can be effective in controlling the epidemiological dynamics, they also need to be assessed in terms of their acceptability by populations. The preferences of populations should matter, particularly after months of efforts, and the new requirements of lockdowns in several European countries despite these efforts.

The worst-case payoff in games with stochastic revision opportunitiesJournal articleYevgeny Tsodikovich, Annals of Operations Research, Forthcoming

We study infinitely repeated games in which players are limited to subsets of their action space at each stage—a generalization of asynchronous games. This framework is broad enough to model many real-life repeated scenarios with restrictions, such as portfolio management, learning by doing and training. We present conditions under which rigidity in the choice of actions benefits all players in terms of worst-case equilibrium payoff and worst-case payoff. To provide structure, we exemplify our result in a model of a two-player repeated game, where we derive a formula for the worst-case payoff. Moreover, we show that in zero-sum games, lack of knowledge about the timing of the revision can compensate for inability to change the action.

Exchange rate policy and external vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: nominal, real or mixed targeting?Journal articleFadia Al Hajj, Gilles Dufrénot et Benjamin Keddad, Applied Economics, pp. 1-20, Forthcoming

This paper discusses the theoretical choice of exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan African countries that are facing external vulnerabilities. To reduce instability, policymakers choose among promoting external competitiveness using a real anchor, lowering the burden of foreign debt using a nominal anchor or using a policy mix of both anchors. We observe that these countries tend to adopt mixed anchor policies. We solve a state space model to explain the determinants of and the strategy behind this policy. We find that the mixed targeting policy is a two-step strategy: First, monetary authorities choose the degree of nominal exchange rate flexibility according to the velocity of money, trade openness, foreign debt, degree of exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate target zone. Second, authorities seek to stabilize the real exchange rate depending on the degree of competition in the domestic goods market and the degree of foreign exchange intervention. We conclude with regime-switching estimations to provide empirical evidence of how these economic fundamentals influence exchange rate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa.