Barbara Castillo Rico*, Fatemeh Salimi Namin**

Séminaires internes
phd seminar

Barbara Castillo Rico*, Fatemeh Salimi Namin**

Geographic disparities of interest rate: Housing credit market concentration and the heterogeneous pass through of MP in France*
Exchange rates, stock prices and stock market uncertainty**

IBD Salle 16

Îlot Bernard du Bois - Salle 16

5-9 boulevard Maurice Bourdet
13001 Marseille

Mardi 26 novembre 2019| 12:45 - 14:15

Anushka Chawla : anushka.chawla[at]
Laura Sénécal : laura.senecal[at]
Carolina Ulloa Suarez : carolina.ulloa-suarez[at]


*We study the heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy to the housing credit system in France. In particular, we estimate the hedonic reduced form of the housing credit market assuming some degree of imperfect competition, which depends on the geographic area. We provide evidence about the existence of geographic disparities in terms of interest rates. We use Bank of France data on new housing loans and banks credit volumes to households to create a single extensive data set of regional housing credit activity. We document two main results. First, banks set higher interest rates in areas of high credit market concentration. Second, in periods of expansionary monetary policy, banks reduce interest rates less in concentrated markets than they do in more competitive ones.


**In this study, we re-examine the role of previously-proposed exchange rate return determinants such as interest rates differential (as suggested by uncovered interest rate parity) and stock returns differential (uncovered equity parity) in a non-linear framework. In addition, as uncertainty is one of the most important factors in the decision-making process of investors, we consider for the first time that the differential of the Implied Volatility (VIX) of the two corresponding countries’ stock markets would play a role in exchange rate movements. By focusing on the JPY/USD exchange rate returns from the beginning of the new millennium to 2015 and examining two subsamples of non-zero- and zero-interest rates differentials, we show that the stock returns differential can be one of the most important drivers of the JPY/USD exchange rate movements during the former period whereas the IV differential and quantitative easing measures play more significant roles in the latter period.