Gregory Gadzinski
MEGA
Maison de l'économie et de la gestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc
13080 Aix-en-Provence
Eric Girardin : eric.girardin[at]univ-amu.fr
Gaël Leboeuf : gael.leboeuf[at]univ-amu.fr
Christelle Lecourt : christelle.lecourt[at]univ-amu.fr
The resurgence in inflation that started in 2021 made asset allocation suddenly more complicated. In past high inflationary episodes, the academic literature has shown that investors found success in investing in assets such as commodities, real estate, and certain types of stocks, notably in the energy and materials sectors. However, those options may not necessarily outperform in different macro and geopolitical environments, making it more difficult to build robust inflation hedged portfolios. To address this challenge, we first leverage fuzzy clustering and community detection to identify diversified clusters of industries indexes during historical high inflation regimes. Then, we build optimized portfolios of industries for each cluster and compare their performance in the recent inflationary episode. Finally, we assess the performance of “inflation-clustered” portfolios against traditional hedges, like commodities, to test if optimized stocks allocation in high inflation regimes is a better alternative for investors. We find that leveraging historical inflation information through clustering has been remarkably profitable during the recent period.