Meryem Rhouzlane, Océane Piétri
Océane Piétri : oceane.pietri[at]univ-amu.fr
Morgan Raux : morgan.raux[at]univ-amu.fr
Laura Sénécal : laura.senecal[at]univ-amu.fr
Potential growth and natural yield curve in Japan
co-écrit avec Gilles Dufrénot et Etienne Vaccaro-Grange
We estimate the yield curve gap in Japan and examine whether it has contributed to the sustained low growth and low inflation rates observed since the beginning 2000s. We use a semi-structural empirical model that generalizes Laubach and Williams' approach, considering the entire range of maturities of the interest rates and dealing with the issue of mixed frequency sampling. We consider global factors exerting downward pressures on inflation and examine how the neutral yield curve has affected the snowball effect in the dynamics of the Japanese public debt ratio.
Optimal fiscal response to monetary shock and inequality
In this paper, we evaluate what should be the optimal fiscal response to different monetary policy regimes when inequality and redistribution matter. Due to persistent high indebtedness, high unemployment rates and increasing inequality, income and wealth distribution evolution have become essential to assess the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. In order to deal with these redistribution issues, we focus on the optimal fiscal response using a HANK model with matching frictions using US data. As shown in Gornemann et al. (2016), depending on the authority’s objective, monetary policy has different effects on the distribution. Using a Ramsey program maximizing welfare, we determine the optimal path for taxation rates responding to different regimes of monetary shock and analyse the consequences on income and wealth distributions.