Nicolas Posso*, Mathilde Esposito**

Séminaires internes
phd seminar

Nicolas Posso*, Mathilde Esposito**

Do Health effects of exposure to air pollution differ by deprivation level? Evidence from French urban areas*
Demographic winter, economic structure and productivity in Japan**
Co-écrit avec
Gilles Dufrénot, Eva Moreno Galbis**

MEGA Salle Carine Nourry

MEGA - Salle Carine Nourry

Maison de l'économie et de la gestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc
13080 Aix-en-Provence

Mardi 16 avril 2024| 11:00 - 12:30

Lucie Giorgi : lucie.giorgi[at]
Ricardo Guzman : ricardo.guzman[at]
Natalia Labrador : natalia.labrador-bernate[at]
Nathan Vieira : nathan.vieira[at]


*Air pollution is considered as the third largest mortality risk factor. The effects of air pollution on mortality might differ by some features like age, geographic location or socioeconomic status. I will explore the heterogeneity of the mortality impact of short-term air pollution exposure in different socioeconomic status. For this purpose, I will use data from the communes belonging to the main urban areas in France using general additive models. Four pollutants will be analysed: nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter 10 (PM10) and particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5). The socioeconomic status of each commune is determined by the French Deprivation index and French European Deprivation index. My master thesis provided evidence of a non-monotonic relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality by socioeconomic status at the urban area level, and I am going to replicate this analysis at the commune level.

**Demographic winter is increasingly prevalent across industrialized economies. Indeed, low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate and population contraction are becoming the new normal of demographic transition—the so-called "fifth stage" not anticipated by the original model. This paper delves into a theoretical and empirical examination of how demographic winter impacts Japan's economic structure and overall productivity. Specifically, we suggest that two key mechanisms might have been at play in Japan since the 1990s: i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. According to our theoretical model, Japanese demographic winter fosters the concentration of low-skilled, low-productive labor in the service sector. Subsequently, our empirical analysis seeks to determine whether demographic winter undermines Japan's productive potential through an industry-by-industry decomposition.