Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
General practitioners' attitude towards cooperation with other health professionals in managing patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy: A cross-sectional studyJournal articleHélène Carrier, Anna Zaytseva, Aurélie Bocquier, Patrick Villani, Martin Fortin et Pierre Verger, European Journal of General Practice, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp. 109-117, 2022

Background:
Cooperation between general practitioners (GPs) and other healthcare professionals appears to help reduce the risk of polypharmacy-related adverse events in patients with multimorbidity.
Objectives:
To investigate GPs profiles according to their opinions and attitudes about interprofessional cooperation and to study the association between these profiles and GPs’ characteristics.
Methods:
Between May and July 2016, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of a panel of French GPs about their management of patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy, focussing on their opinions on the roles of healthcare professionals and interprofessional cooperation. We used agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to identify GPs profiles, then multivariable logistic regression models to study their associations with the characteristics of these doctors.
Results:
1183 GPs responded to the questionnaire. We identified four profiles of GPs according to their declared attitudes towards cooperation: GPs in the ‘very favourable’ profile (14%) were willing to cooperate with various health professionals, including the delegation of some prescribing tasks to pharmacists; GPs in the ‘moderately favourable’ profile (47%) had favourable views on the roles of health professionals, with the exception for this specific delegation of the task; GPs from the ‘selectively favourable’ profile (27%) tended to work only with doctors; GPs from the ‘non-cooperative’ profile (12%) did not seem to be interested in cooperation. Some profiles were associated with GPs’ ages or participation in continuing medical education.
Conclusion:
Our study highlights disparities between GPs regarding cooperation with other professionals caring for their patients and suggests ways to improve cooperation.

Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural BrazilJournal articlePhoebe W. Ishak, World Development, Volume 157, pp. 105933, 2022

This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on violent crime using disaggregated data from Brazilian municipalities over the period 1991–2015. Employing a distributed lag model that takes into account temporal correlations of weather shocks and spatial correlation of crime rates, I document that adverse weather shocks in the form of droughts lead to a significant increase in violent crime in rural regions. This effect appears to persist beyond the growing season and over the medium run in contrast to the conventional view perceiving weather effects as transitory. To explain this persistence, I show that weather fluctuations are positively associated not only with agriculture yields, but also with the overall economic activity. Moreover, evidence shows the dominance of opportunity cost mechanism reflected in the fluctuations of the earnings especially for the agriculture and unskilled workers, giving credence that it is indeed the income that matters and not the general socio-economic conditions. Other factors such as local government budget capacity, (un)-employment, poverty, inequality, and psychological factors do not seem to explain violent crime rates.

Systemic risk: a network approachJournal articleJean-Baptiste Hasse, Empirical Economics, Volume 63, pp. 313-344, 2022

We propose a new measure of systemic risk based on interconnectedness, defined as the level of direct and indirect links between financial institutions in a correlation-based network. Deriving interconnectedness in terms of risk, we empirically show that within a financial network, indirect links are strengthened during systemic events. The relevance of our measure is illustrated at both local and global levels. Our framework offers policymakers a useful toolbox for exploring the real-time topology of the complex structure of dependencies in financial systems and for measuring the consequences of regulatory decisions.

Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade: Revisiting gains from tradeJournal articleSergey Kokovin, Pavel Molchanov et Igor Bykadorov, Journal of International Economics, Volume 137, pp. 103595, 2022

We study the canonical Krugman (1979) trade model with non-CES preferences that yield autarky at finite trade costs. We prove a non-monotone impact of gradual trade liberalization. At first, near autarky, emerging trade reduces world welfare, while at free trade it becomes large enough to be beneficial (Krugman's result). This non-monotonicity persists under heterogenous firms. The harmful small-scale trade is explained by variable markups and underpriced imports, which become socially excessive. Unlike protectionists, we argue that “liberalization should go far”. On the other hand, we show that anti-dumping measures can be viewed as a remedy for the aforementioned imports distortion.

Pareto rationalizability by two single-peaked preferencesJournal articleRicardo Arlegi et Miriam Teschl, Mathematical Social Sciences, Volume 118, pp. 1-11, 2022

We study, in a finite setting, the problem of Pareto rationalizability of choice functions by means of a preference profile that is single-peaked with respect to an exogenously given linear order over the alternatives. This problem requires a new condition to be added to those that characterize Pareto rationalizability in the general domain of orders (Moulin (1985)). This new condition appeals to the existence of a central range of options such that the choice function excludes alternatives which are distant from that range.

The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19Journal articleGuilhem Cassan et Marc Sangnier, Journal of Population Economics, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp. 963-988, 2022

Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department’s epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

Attainment of universal health coverage in the occupied Palestinian territory assessed by a general equilibrium approach: is informality an irreversible hurdle for universality?Journal articleMohammad Abu-Zaineh et Sameera Awawda, The Lancet, Volume 399, pp. S24, 2022

Background:
Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) has recently received attention in response to calls from international organisations to expand health coverage to hard-to-reach segments of the population (eg, informal workers, and unemployed and poor people). Despite the strong commitment to achieving UHC, its implementation continues to spark vigorous debate among policy makers, scholars, and the international health community. Much of the recent debate has focused on the macro-fiscal challenges that many developing countries face in implementing and sustaining UHC-oriented reforms, and there has also been debate in relation to challenges of the micro-behavioural sphere (at the level of the individual). Some of these challenges pertain to the structure of the labour market in developing countries, which is characterised by the large size of non-contributory segments of the population, mainly informal workers and unemployed individuals. This raises the important policy questions of the feasibility of expanding health coverage to the informal sector and the unemployed on a contributory basis.
Methods:
We assessed the feasibility of UHC using a dynamic general equilibrium approach while accounting for heterogeneity across households in terms of their employment and socioeconomic status. The model was calibrated using the Palestinian Expenditures and Consumption Survey (PECS, 2011), and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM, 2011). We assessed alternative health insurance designs proposed to target the informal workers. Fiscal sustainability of the reforms was examined using the debt-to-GDP ratio and the microeconomic impact was assessed using the concept of consumption equivalent variation (CEV), defined as the amount of additional consumption a household would give up to move from the pre-insurance to the post-insurance level of welfare. A positive CEV value indicates that individuals are willing to pay for the health insurance. The higher the CEV value, the higher the gains of health insurance.
Findings:
A simultaneous expansion of UHC coverage of the population and health-care costs would enhance welfare for all households. However, such an expansion would reduce government expenditure that is allocated to other sectors; for example, it was estimated that the reduction would have been approximately 10% in 2020. To finance this UHC-driven debt, we examined the impact of a tax-financed UHC-oriented reform and a low-premium, low-coverage government-sponsored health insurance that targets informal workers. Although both policies would generate additional revenues to serve the UHC debt, government-sponsored health insurance targeting informal workers seems to be more feasible in terms of its impact on household welfare. That is, the informal workers would be better off under the government-sponsored health insurance scheme.
Interpretation:
In the absence of precise information on the ability to pay of informal workers, which in some cases might be comparable to that of formal workers, it is reasonable for the government to charge better-off informal workers rather than naively exempting them. The findings corroborate previous evidence suggesting that informal workers are willing to join health insurance schemes that charge them lower premiums for a slightly less generous benefit package than the health insurance schemes of formal workers. This health insurance might be deemed equitable in terms of the degree of financial protection that informal workers can obtain compared with the scenario in which they are left to bear high out-of-pocket health-care costs.

Les attendus d’une approche d’économie comportementale pour les décisions individuelles face à la pandémie de COVID-19 : succès et déceptionsJournal articleThierry Blayac, Dimitri Dubois, Sebastien Duchêne, Phu Nguyen-Van, Ismael Rafai, Bruno Ventelou et Marc Willinger, médecine/sciences, Volume 38, Issue 6-7, pp. 594-599, 2022

Dans le cadre du premier appel à projet « Flash-COVID-19 » de l’Agence nationale de la recherche, nous avons mobilisé des méthodes récentes de l’économie comportementale afin de mieux comprendre les décisions des individus face à la crise sanitaire due à la pandémie de COVID-19 (<i>coronavirus disease 2019<i/>) et d’identifier les paramètres pouvant influencer le respect des mesures sanitaires. Cet article introduit brièvement l’économie comportementale, présente un compte rendu des attendus du projet CONFINOBS (Observance et observation des mesures barrières et du confinement : une approche d’économie comportementale) et de ses méthodes, puis il propose une synthèse des résultats obtenus.

Potential growth and natural yield curve in JapanJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Meryem Rhouzlane et Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 124, pp. 102628, 2022

We estimate the yield curve gap in Japan and examine whether it has contributed to the sustained low growth and low inflation rates observed since the beginning 2000s. We use a semi-structural empirical model that generalizes Laubach and Williams’ approach, considering the entire range of maturities of the interest rates and dealing with the issue of mixed frequency sampling. An important result is that, even in the absence of a zero lower bound, monetary and fiscal policies proved ineffective in bringing the Japanese economy out of a situation of prolonged stagnation and low inflation. This happened even when the yield curve moved below its natural level.

Language and the cultural markers of COVID-19Journal articleNeha Deopa et Piergiuseppe Fortunato, Social Science & Medicine, Volume 301, pp. 114886, 2022

Despite its universal nature, the impact of COVID-19 has not been geographically homogeneous. While certain countries and regions have been severely affected, registering record infection rates and excess deaths, others experienced only milder outbreaks. We investigate to what extent human factors, in particular cultural origins reflected in different attitudes and behavioural norms, can explain different degrees of exposure to the virus. Motivated by the linguistic relativity hypothesis, we take language as a proxy for cultural origins and exploit the exogenous variation in the language spoken around the border that divides the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland to estimate the impact of culture on exposure to COVID-19. The results obtained using a spatial regression discontinuity design reveal, that within 50- and 25- kilometres bandwidth from the language border, the average COVID-19 exposure levels for individuals in French speaking municipalities was higher. In particular, we find that German speaking municipalities were associated with a reduction of around 40% - 50% in the odds of COVID-19 exposure compared to the French speaking municipalities.