Publications
Most studies examining the impact of migrants on crime rates in hosting populations are in the context of economic migrants in developed countries. However, we know much less about the crime impact of refugees in low- and middle-income countries—whose numbers are increasing worldwide. This study examines this issue in the context of the largest refugee group in any country—Syrian refugees in Turkey. Although these refugees are much poorer than the local population, have limited access to formal employment, and face partial mobility restrictions, we find that total crime per person (including natives and refugees) falls due to the arrival of the refugees. This finding also applies to several types of crime; the only exception is smuggling, which increases due to the population influx. We also show that the fall in crime does not result from tighter security; we find no evidence of a change in the number of armed forces (military and civil personnel) in the migrant-hosting regions.
A large literature characterises urbanisation as resulting from productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. Incorporating economic geography elements into a growth model, we suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that initiates sustained economic growth. This model is consistent with the fact that urbanisation rates in western Europe, most notably England, reached unprecedented levels by the mid-eighteenth century, the eve of the Industrial Revolution.
In an earlier article, we found that a univariate state space time series model estimated using the Kalman filter provided reasonably accurate monthly forecasts of generic Bordeaux red wine prices for the period up to 2016. We use the same model to forecast prices for the period 2017 to 2020, a period in which the market for this wine was subject to a number of demand and supply shocks. We find that the model's forecasts are poor from late 2018 through 2019 when the price collapsed from an all-time high and returned levels not seen since 2012. There is evidence of a structural break or regime change, and we explore the underlying reasons for this. The main one is the collapse in Chinese demand for Bordeaux wines which was brought about by a combination of shocks.
Background :
Scarcity of data on the health impacts and associated economic costs of heat waves may limit the will to invest in adaptation measures. We assessed the economic impact associated with mortality, morbidity, and loss of well-being during heat waves in France between 2015 and 2019.
Methods :
Health indicators monitored by the French national heat wave plan were used to estimate excess visits to emergency rooms and outpatient clinics and hospitalizations for heat-related causes. Total excess mortality and years of life loss were considered, as well as the size of the population that experienced restricted activity. A cost-of-illness and willingness-to-pay approach was used to account for associated costs.
Results :
Between 2015 and 2019, the economic impact of selected health effects of heat waves amounts to €25.5 billion, mainly in mortality (€23.2 billion), minor restricted activity days (€2.3 billion), and morbidity (€0.031 billion).
Conclusion :
The results highlight a significant economic burden on the French health system and the population. A better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on health is required to alert decision-makers to the urgency of mitigation and to support concrete adaptation actions.
Financial inclusion is a policy priority in both developed and developing countries. Yet almost one in four people remain financially excluded around the globe, with the vast majority living in the developing world. In this paper, we argue that financial resilience: an individual’s ability to function effectively in adverse financial situations, can better help us assist people to cope with financial adversity, develop effective policy and, ultimately, improve economic development. This paper builds on an existing financial resilience measurement framework and adapts it to develop a measure appropriate to the context of developing countries. Indonesia, where one in three people are financially excluded, is used as a case country from which to draw conclusions. We use the Indonesia Family Life Survey and put forward the country’s first snapshot of financial resilience. Implications for research and policy are presented.
This article offers a general reflection on governance and managerial practices within a Social and Solidarity Economy (SSE) and suggests that in a time of profound socioeconomic change, it is in SSE companies’ interest to establish global sustainable governance and responsible team management systems consistent with both the values structuring this domain as well as employee aspirations. This a French point of view with a sustainable dimension based on a literature review and on several published studies but not on an empirical approach. In a way it is an essay more than a demonstration. It is a proposal which could lead to methodological work. Here is a first step.
Les entreprises comme les entrepreneurs sont sous les feux de la rampe. Plus que jamais ils sont au cœur de nos préoccupations et de nos observations. La montée en puissance de la microentreprise, le charme de la « start-up nation », l’attirance des jeunes générations pour l’entrepreneuriat… tout nous indique un véritable attrait croissant pour la création ou la reprise d’entreprise plutôt qu’un rêve de salariat. Pour autant, l’aventure entrepreneuriale n’est pas sans porter quelques écueils. La démarche entrepreneuriale pourrait peut-être même se caractériser par le lien que le futur entrepreneur entretient avec le risque. C’est pourquoi, dans cet esprit de décryptage des tendances sociétales, le rapport au risque que nourrissent les entrepreneurs mérite d’être analysé. En effet, ce dernier révèle les motivations et les modalités de la démarche entrepreneuriale ainsi que les tendances sociétales de la création des entreprises. Afin de comprendre au mieux ce lien, nous avons pu bénéficier d’une étude mettant à jour les grandes lignes de ce rapport risque - entreprises sondées auprès de plus de 800 chefs d’entreprise. L’analyse des résultats de cette étude nous amène à proposer le désir d’indépendance et d’autonomie comme motivation principale à la création d’entreprise tout en soulignant aussi l’émergence des problématiques de protection sociale. Deux tendances lourdes de l’entrepreneuriat qu’il faudra assez vite traduire en réponses opérationnelles pour soutenir et entretenir cet élan.
Alors que les concepts « d’entrepreneur » et « d’entreprise » nous viennent du fin fond de l’histoire, ils ne sont pas toujours bien clairs pour tous et pas nécessairement bien compris aujourd’hui. Cette imprécision et cette confusion dans les termes peuvent devenir une difficulté pour appréhender l’entreprise et plus globalement le domaine économique. L’entrepreneuriat n’a jamais été aussi prisé, valorisé par les business School et aussi cité en référence, notamment par les plus jeunes générations qui adhèrent en majorité au concept. C’est pourquoi un éclairage sur l’évolution sémantique du concept d’entrepreneur peut nous aider à comprendre la réalité de l’entreprise aujourd’hui. À travers différentes périodes de notre histoire générale et économique, cet article retrace la longue et riche histoire de ces concepts en les mettant en perspectives avec leur période contextuelle pour arriver jusqu’aux temps contemporains et l’émergence du travail indépendant. Du Moyen-Âge au 21ième siècle, de l’entrepreneur épique à l’entrepreneur de crise, cet article propose de balayer des siècles d’évolution de l’entrepreneuriat pour mieux éclairer sa réalité contemporaine. Cela permet enfin d’aborder la nécessaire question du risque et du rapport que les entrepreneurs entretiennent avec cette difficile incertitude tout en évoquant les nouvelles mutations de l’entrepreneuriat et notamment l’entrepreneuriat individuel et le travail indépendant. Pour comprendre l’entrepreneuriat de demain, pour pouvoir l’articuler avec les évolutions des modèles de travail, le regard historique s’avère précieux et permet une projection riche sur la base d’un passé connu.
Deviations of asset prices from the random walk dynamic imply the predictability of asset returns and thus have important implications for portfolio construction and risk management. This paper proposes a real-time monitoring device for such deviations using intraday high-frequency data. The proposed procedures are based on unit root tests with in-fill asymptotics but extended to take the empirical features of high-frequency financial data (particularly jumps) into consideration. We derive the limiting distributions of the tests under both the null hypothesis of a random walk with jumps and the alternative of mean reversion/explosiveness with jumps. The limiting results show that ignoring the presence of jumps could potentially lead to severe size distortions of both the standard left-sided (against mean reversion) and right-sided (against explosiveness) unit root tests. The simulation results reveal satisfactory performance of the proposed tests even with data from a relatively short time span. As an illustration, we apply the procedure to the Nasdaq composite index at the 10-minute frequency over two periods: around the peak of the dot-com bubble and during the 2015–2106 stock market sell-off. We find strong evidence of explosiveness in asset prices in late 1999 and mean reversion in late 2015. We also show that accounting for jumps when testing the random walk hypothesis on intraday data is empirically relevant and that ignoring jumps can lead to different conclusions.
We construct a spatiotemporal frame for the study of spatial economic and ecological patterns generated by transboundary pollution. Space is continuous and polluting emissions originate in the intensity of use of the production input. Pollution flows across locations following a diffusion process. The objective functional of the economy is to set the optimal production policy over time and space to maximize welfare from consumption, taking into account a negative local pollution externality and the diffusive nature of pollution. Our framework allows for space and time dependent preferences and productivity, and does not restrict diffusion speed to be space-independent. Accordingly, we develop a methodology to investigate the environmental and economic implications of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. We propose a method for an analytical characterization of the optimal paths. An application to technological spillovers is proposed for illustration. We focus on the determination of the optimal short-term spatiotemporal dynamics induced by the resulting non-autonomous problems.
