Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
Systemic risk: a network approachJournal articleJean-Baptiste Hasse, Empirical Economics, Volume 63, pp. 313-344, 2022

We propose a new measure of systemic risk based on interconnectedness, defined as the level of direct and indirect links between financial institutions in a correlation-based network. Deriving interconnectedness in terms of risk, we empirically show that within a financial network, indirect links are strengthened during systemic events. The relevance of our measure is illustrated at both local and global levels. Our framework offers policymakers a useful toolbox for exploring the real-time topology of the complex structure of dependencies in financial systems and for measuring the consequences of regulatory decisions.

Pareto rationalizability by two single-peaked preferencesJournal articleRicardo Arlegi et Miriam Teschl, Mathematical Social Sciences, Volume 118, pp. 1-11, 2022

We study, in a finite setting, the problem of Pareto rationalizability of choice functions by means of a preference profile that is single-peaked with respect to an exogenously given linear order over the alternatives. This problem requires a new condition to be added to those that characterize Pareto rationalizability in the general domain of orders (Moulin (1985)). This new condition appeals to the existence of a central range of options such that the choice function excludes alternatives which are distant from that range.

The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19Journal articleGuilhem Cassan et Marc Sangnier, Journal of Population Economics, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp. 963-988, 2022

Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department’s epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

Attainment of universal health coverage in the occupied Palestinian territory assessed by a general equilibrium approach: is informality an irreversible hurdle for universality?Journal articleMohammad Abu-Zaineh et Sameera Awawda, The Lancet, Volume 399, pp. S24, 2022

Background:
Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) has recently received attention in response to calls from international organisations to expand health coverage to hard-to-reach segments of the population (eg, informal workers, and unemployed and poor people). Despite the strong commitment to achieving UHC, its implementation continues to spark vigorous debate among policy makers, scholars, and the international health community. Much of the recent debate has focused on the macro-fiscal challenges that many developing countries face in implementing and sustaining UHC-oriented reforms, and there has also been debate in relation to challenges of the micro-behavioural sphere (at the level of the individual). Some of these challenges pertain to the structure of the labour market in developing countries, which is characterised by the large size of non-contributory segments of the population, mainly informal workers and unemployed individuals. This raises the important policy questions of the feasibility of expanding health coverage to the informal sector and the unemployed on a contributory basis.
Methods:
We assessed the feasibility of UHC using a dynamic general equilibrium approach while accounting for heterogeneity across households in terms of their employment and socioeconomic status. The model was calibrated using the Palestinian Expenditures and Consumption Survey (PECS, 2011), and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM, 2011). We assessed alternative health insurance designs proposed to target the informal workers. Fiscal sustainability of the reforms was examined using the debt-to-GDP ratio and the microeconomic impact was assessed using the concept of consumption equivalent variation (CEV), defined as the amount of additional consumption a household would give up to move from the pre-insurance to the post-insurance level of welfare. A positive CEV value indicates that individuals are willing to pay for the health insurance. The higher the CEV value, the higher the gains of health insurance.
Findings:
A simultaneous expansion of UHC coverage of the population and health-care costs would enhance welfare for all households. However, such an expansion would reduce government expenditure that is allocated to other sectors; for example, it was estimated that the reduction would have been approximately 10% in 2020. To finance this UHC-driven debt, we examined the impact of a tax-financed UHC-oriented reform and a low-premium, low-coverage government-sponsored health insurance that targets informal workers. Although both policies would generate additional revenues to serve the UHC debt, government-sponsored health insurance targeting informal workers seems to be more feasible in terms of its impact on household welfare. That is, the informal workers would be better off under the government-sponsored health insurance scheme.
Interpretation:
In the absence of precise information on the ability to pay of informal workers, which in some cases might be comparable to that of formal workers, it is reasonable for the government to charge better-off informal workers rather than naively exempting them. The findings corroborate previous evidence suggesting that informal workers are willing to join health insurance schemes that charge them lower premiums for a slightly less generous benefit package than the health insurance schemes of formal workers. This health insurance might be deemed equitable in terms of the degree of financial protection that informal workers can obtain compared with the scenario in which they are left to bear high out-of-pocket health-care costs.

Asymmetric Information and Differentiated Durable Goods Monopoly: Intra-Period Versus Intertemporal DiscriminationJournal articleDidier Laussel, Ngo Van Long et Joana Resende, Dynamic Games and Applications, Volume 12, Issue 2, pp. 574-607, 2022

A durable good monopolist faces a continuum of heterogeneous customers who make purchase decisions by comparing present and expected price-quality offers. The monopolist designs a sequence of price-quality menus to segment the market. We consider the Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) of a game where the monopolist is unable to commit to future price-quality menus. We obtain the novel results that: (a) under certain conditions, the monopolist covers the whole market in the first period (even when a static Mussa–Rosen monopolist would not cover the whole market), because this is a strategic means to convince customers that lower prices would not be offered in future periods and that (b) this can happen only under the stage-wise Stackelberg leadership assumption (whereby consumers base their expectations on the value of the state variable at the end of the period). Conditions under which MPE necessarily involves sequentially trading are also derived.

Budget-Neutral Capital Tax CutsJournal articleFrédéric Dufourt, Lisa Kerdelhué et Océane Piétri, Annals of Economics and Statistics, Issue 146, pp. 93-122, 2022

We revisit the canonical policy of eliminating capital taxation by increasing labor taxation in a endogenous-labor, heterogeneous-agent model with income and wealth heterogeneity, when the government is subject to a strict (per-period) balanced-budget constraint. By contrast with its non-budget neutral equivalent-associated with a constant tax rate over time and a permanent increase in the level of public debt-we show that the obtained endogenous path for the labor tax rate is sharply increasing in the initial period and decreasing over time. The policy then generates a deeper recession in the short-run and a greater expansion in the long-run, as well as a smaller decline in wealth inequality associated with a reduced incentive to save for precautionary motives. Overall, the policy still generates significant losses in average welfare.

Quand le messager est plus important que le message : étude expérimentale en Afrique francophone sur l’utilisation des connaissancesJournal articleAmandine Fillol, Esther Mc Sween-Cadieux, Bruno Ventelou, Marie-Pier Larose, Ulrich Nguemdjo, Kadidiatou Kadio, Christian Dagenais et Valéry Ridde, Revue francophone de recherche sur le transfert et l’utilisation des connaissances, Volume 6, Issue 3, 2022

Contexte : Les injustices épistémiques sont de plus en plus décriées dans le domaine de la santé mondiale. Cette étude vise à déterminer si la source des connaissances influence la perception de ces connaissances et la volonté de les utiliser.
Méthodes : L’étude suit un devis expérimental randomisé dans lequel les participant·es ont été assigné·es au hasard à l'une des sept notes de politique conçues avec le même contenu scientifique, mais avec différentes organisations présentées comme autrices. Chaque organisation était représentative d'une autorité financière, scientifique ou morale. Pour chaque type d'autorité, deux organisations étaient proposées : l'une nord-américaine ou européenne, l'autre africaine.
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que le type d’autorité et la localisation des organisations autrices ne sont pas significativement associés à la qualité perçue et à l’utilisation instrumentale déclarée. Toutefois, des interactions entre le type d’autorité et la localisation étaient significatives. Ainsi, les analyses stratifiées ont mis en évidence que pour la qualité perçue, les notes de politique signées par l'organisme bailleur (autorité financière) africain obtenaient de meilleurs scores que les notes de politique signées par l’organisme bailleur nord-américain/européen. Tant pour la qualité perçue que pour l'utilisation instrumentale déclarée, ces analyses stratifiées ont révélé que les notes de politique signées par l'université africaine (autorité scientifique) étaient associées à des scores plus faibles que les notes de politique signées par l'université nord-américaine/européenne.
Interprétation : Les résultats confirment l'influence significative des sources sur la perception des connaissances en santé mondiale et rappellent l’intersectionnalité de l’influence des sources d’autorité. Cette analyse nous permet à la fois d'en apprendre davantage sur les organisations qui dominent la scène de la gouvernance mondiale en santé et de réfléchir aux implications pour les pratiques d'application des connaissances.

Vector Optimization with Domination Structures: Variational Principles and ApplicationsJournal articleTruong Q. Bao, Boris S. Mordukhovich, Antoine Soubeyran et Christiane Tammer, Set-Valued and Variational Analysis, Volume 30, Issue 2, pp. 695-729, 2022

This paper addresses a large class of vector optimization problems in infinite-dimensional spaces with respect to two important binary relations derived from domination structures. Motivated by theoretical challenges as well as by applications to some models in behavioral sciences, we establish new variational principles that can be viewed as far-going extensions of the Ekeland variational principle to cover domination vector settings. Our approach combines advantages of both primal and dual techniques in variational analysis with providing useful sufficient conditions for the existence of variational traps in behavioral science models with variable domination structures.

Les attendus d’une approche d’économie comportementale pour les décisions individuelles face à la pandémie de COVID-19 : succès et déceptionsJournal articleThierry Blayac, Dimitri Dubois, Sebastien Duchêne, Phu Nguyen-Van, Ismael Rafai, Bruno Ventelou et Marc Willinger, médecine/sciences, Volume 38, Issue 6-7, pp. 594-599, 2022

Dans le cadre du premier appel à projet « Flash-COVID-19 » de l’Agence nationale de la recherche, nous avons mobilisé des méthodes récentes de l’économie comportementale afin de mieux comprendre les décisions des individus face à la crise sanitaire due à la pandémie de COVID-19 (<i>coronavirus disease 2019<i/>) et d’identifier les paramètres pouvant influencer le respect des mesures sanitaires. Cet article introduit brièvement l’économie comportementale, présente un compte rendu des attendus du projet CONFINOBS (Observance et observation des mesures barrières et du confinement : une approche d’économie comportementale) et de ses méthodes, puis il propose une synthèse des résultats obtenus.

Potential growth and natural yield curve in JapanJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Meryem Rhouzlane et Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 124, pp. 102628, 2022

We estimate the yield curve gap in Japan and examine whether it has contributed to the sustained low growth and low inflation rates observed since the beginning 2000s. We use a semi-structural empirical model that generalizes Laubach and Williams’ approach, considering the entire range of maturities of the interest rates and dealing with the issue of mixed frequency sampling. An important result is that, even in the absence of a zero lower bound, monetary and fiscal policies proved ineffective in bringing the Japanese economy out of a situation of prolonged stagnation and low inflation. This happened even when the yield curve moved below its natural level.