Publications
This paper investigates the link between parental separation and children's achievement in adulthood. Using a French dataset on “Education-Training-Employment”, I first estimate a random effects model and then examine the differences in age at divorce for children within the same family, to control for divorced family selection. Three outcomes are analysed: number of years of schooling, earnings-weighted education and social position. Using a random effects model, parental separation is linked to poorer educational attainment for their children, from 32% to 12% of a standard deviation lower where the number of years of education is concerned, and from 30% to 8% of a standard deviation lower where the earnings-weighted education is concerned. This effect varies with age: least affected are the 16 to 18-year-olds, and most affected are the youngest. Where social position is concerned, effects are weaker, but remain negative. Accounting for the family fixed effect yields somewhat weaker estimated effects for the youngest, but results remain similar. Parental separation is more detrimental to boys' education under both models, but conducting a F-test, we only reject the nul hypothesis for earnings-weighted education where family fixed effect is accounted for. In results from both models, teenagers who experience a parental separation are less affected if born after 1970, but differences are not statistically different from zero where the family fixed effect is accounted for. JEL Codes: I20, J12.
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we examine convergence properties of an inexact proximal point method with a quasi distance as a regularization term in order to find a critical point (in the sense of Toland) of a DC function (difference of two convex functions). Global convergence of the sequence and some convergence rates are obtained with additional assumptions. Second, as an application and its inspiration, we study in a dynamic setting, the very important and difficult problem of the limit of the firm and the time it takes to reach it (maturation time), when increasing returns matter in the short run. Both the formalization of the critical size of the firm in term of a recent variational rationality approach of human dynamics and the speed of convergence results are new in Behavioral Sciences.
We introduce an approach based on functional data analysis to identify patterns of malaria incidence to guide effective targeting of malaria control in a seasonal transmission area. Using functional data method, a smooth function (functional data or curve) was fitted from the time series of observed malaria incidence for each of 575 villages in west-central Senegal from 2008 to 2012. These 575 smooth functions were classified using hierarchical clustering (Ward’s method), and several different dissimilarity measures. Validity indices were used to determine the number of distinct temporal patterns of malaria incidence. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the resulting malaria incidence patterns were determined from the velocity and acceleration of their incidences over time. We identified three distinct patterns of malaria incidence: high-, intermediate-, and low-incidence patterns in respectively 2% (12/575), 17% (97/575), and 81% (466/575) of villages. Epidemiological indicators characterizing the fluctuations in malaria incidence showed that seasonal outbreaks started later, and ended earlier, in the low-incidence pattern. Functional data analysis can be used to identify patterns of malaria incidence, by considering their temporal dynamics. Epidemiological indicators derived from their velocities and accelerations, may guide to target control measures according to patterns.
Le marginalisme autrichien a pénétré en Ukraine dès la fin du xixe et le début du xxe siècle à travers la théorie de l’utilité développée par l’économiste et mathématicien Yevgen Slutsky. Sa Théorie de l’utilité marginale montre comment les idées autrichiennes majeures y furent reçues et reprises. Slutsky abordait l’économie en scientifique avec une réception critique de la théorie subjective de la valeur élaborée par Carl Menger. Slutsky développa son propre concept de valeur, qu’il présenta dans sa Critique du concept de valeur. Les auteurs se basent sur un matériau inédit conservé dans des archives à Kiev. Slutsky débattit les positions d’Eugen Böhm-Bawerk, il « objectiva » la fonction d’utilité et il souligna le rôle du comportement de consommation au sein du marché. Ses découvertes exercèrent une grande influence : les « équations de Slutsky », l’« effet Slutsky-Yule » et le « théorème de Slutsky » en témoignent.
This paper examines how voluntary contributions to a public good are affected by the contributors' heterogeneity in beliefs about the uncertain impact of their contributions. It assumes that contributors have Savagian preferences that are represented by a two-state-dependent expected utility function and different beliefs about the benefit that will result from the sum of their contributions. We establish general comparative statics results regarding the effect of specific changes in the distribution of beliefs on the (unique) Nash equilibrium provision of the public good, under certain conditions imposed on the preferences. We specifically show that the equilibrium public good provision is increasing with respect to both first- and second-order stochastic dominance changes in the distribution of beliefs. Hence, increasing the contributors' optimism about the uncertain benefit of their contributions increases aggregate public good provision, as does any homogenization of these beliefs around their mean.
OECD countries have experienced a large increase in top wage inequality. Atkinson (2008) attributes this phenomena to the superstar theory leading to a Pareto tail in the wage distribution with a low Pareto coefficient. Do we observe a similar phenomena for academic wages? We examine wage formation in a public US university using for each academic rank a hybrid mixture formed by a lognormal distribution for regular wages and a Pareto distribution for top wages, using a Bayesian approach. The presence of superstars wages would imply a higher dispersion in the Pareto tail than in the lognormal body. We concluded that academic wages are formed in a different way than other top wages. There is an effort to propose competitive wages to some young Assistant Professors. But when climbing up the wage ladder, we found a phenomenon of wage compression which is just the contrary of a superstar phenomenon.
In this paper, we develop a unified spatial model of turnout and voting behaviors in which citizens can identify with one or two parties. We show the existence of a conflicted voter's curse: If there is no position that reconciles the ideological views of both parties, it is always rational for citizens that identify with two parties to abstain even if they are a majority. In a two-candidate electoral competition, the conflicted voter's curse implies that candidates converge to the center of the political domain if and only if conflicted voters are pivotal and the parties have shared ideological views. Otherwise, we show that candidates may converge or diverge depending upon the degree of party polarization and whether candidates care about ideology or not. Our analysis suggests that the behavior of conflicted voters may be relevant for electoral outcomes and public choice.
Background:
Compared with the number of studies performed in the United States, few studies have been conducted on the link between health insurance and healthcare consumption in Europe, likely because most European countries have compulsory national health insurance (NHI) or a national health service (NHS). Recently, a major French private insurer, offering voluntary complementary coverage in addition to the compulsory NHI, replaced its single standard package with a range of offers from basic coverage (BC) to extended coverage (EC), providing a quasi-natural experiment to test theoretical assumptions about consumption patterns.
Methods:
Reimbursement claim data from 85,541 insurees were analysed from 2009 to 2018. Insurees who opted for EC were matched to those still covered by BC with similar characteristics. Difference-in-differences (DiD) models were used to compare both the monetary value and physical quantities of healthcare consumption before and after the change in coverage.
Results:
As expected, the DiD models revealed a strongly significant, though transitory (mainly during the first year), increase after the change in coverage for EC insurees, particularly for costly care such as dental prostheses and spectacles. Surprisingly, consumption seemed to precede the change in coverage, suggesting that one possible determinant of opting for more coverage may be previous unplanned expenses.
Conclusion:
Both catching-up behaviour and moral hazard are likely to play a role in the observed increase in healthcare consumption.
Voici un cinquième article publié dans le cadre de notre forum « Covid-19 : causes, impacts et stratégies », qui vise à ouvrir les colonnes de Futuribles à divers experts pour évoquer, encore « à chaud », différents aspects, d’ordre économique, social, sanitaire, alimentaire, écologique…, de la crise du Covid-19. Gilbert Cette y montre qu’en dépit des difficultés inhérentes à cette crise sanitaire et aux conséquences économiques qui vont s’ensuivre, il existe aussi une opportunité à saisir dans le domaine du travail. En effet, le confinement et la limitation des déplacements ont permis une large extension du télétravail, qui pourrait perdurer par la suite et permettre, à terme, de relancer la productivité économique, qui semblait en phase d’épuisement depuis plusieurs décennies. S.D.
L'objectif du chantier de la restructuration des branches est de remplacer un paysage conventionnel morcelé par des branches professionnelles plus cohérentes. Ce processus soulève des difficultés. La réponse à ces difficultés peut résider dans l'articulation renouvelée du dialogue social dans les branches et les entreprises. Un moratoire de quelques années peut être utile à un stade de la restructuration. Explications et analyse de Jacques Barthélémy, avocat et Ancien professeur associé à la faculté de droit de Montpellier, Gilbert Cette, Banque de France et Aix-Marseille University, AMSE et Gepy Koudadje, avocate au Cabinet Flichy Grangé Avocats et chargée d'enseignement université Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne.
