We introduce two tests for the constancy of conditional correlations of unknown functional form in multivariate GARCH models. The first test is based on artificial neural networks and the second on a Taylor expansion of each unknown conditional correlation. They can be seen as general misspecification tests for a large set of multivariate GARCH-type models. We investigate their size and their power through Monte Carlo experiments. Moreover, we study the robustness of these tests to nonnormality by simulating some models, such as the GARCH - t and Beta - t - EGARCH. We give some illustrative empirical examples based on financial data. JEL: C22, C45, C58 / KEY WORDS: Multivariate GARCH, Neural Network, Taylor Expansion. RÉSUMÉ. Nous introduisons deux tests de constance des corrélations conditionnelles de forme fonctionnelle inconnue dans les modèles GARCH multivariés. Le premier test est basé sur les réseaux de neurones artificiels et le second sur un développement de Taylor de chaque corrélation conditionnelle inconnue. Ces tests peuvent ětre considérés comme des tests généraux de mauvaise spécification pour un grand nombre de modèles multivariés de type GARCH. Nous étudions leur taille et leur puissance par des expériences de Monte-Carlo. De plus, nous nous intéressons à la robustesse de ces tests à la non normalité en simulant certains modèles comme les modèles GARCH-t et beta-t-EGARCH. Nous donnons enfin quelques exemples empiriques illustratifs sur données financières.
The aim of this study was to investigate whether the labor market mobility of a population of cancer survivors 2 years after diagnosis differed compared to the French general population by focusing on
We present a set of theoretical and empirical papers and briefly describe the specific contributions to the Macroeconomic Dynamics special issue on technology aspects in the process of development.
We propose an endogenous growth model incorporating social capital. Social capital serves only as an input in the production of human capital and it involves a cost in terms of the final good. In contrast to alternative specifications, this model ensures that social capital enhances productivity gains by playing the role of a timing belt that drives the transmission and propagation of all productivity shocks. We find that, depending on the measure of social capital, the elasticity of human capital with respect to social capital varies from 6% to 10%. Finally, we investigate the short-term dynamics and imbalance effect properties of the model, depending on the value of this elasticity. In particular, we show that when the substitutability of social capital for human capital increases, the economy is better equipped to surmount initial imbalances, as individuals may allocate more working time to the final good sector without impeding economic growth.
This paper empirically examines the idea that Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are more likely to be signed by governments playing ‘endgames’; that is, when governments are about to lose power. Two empirical strategies shed light on this hypothesis. One relies on events that increase the probability of political turnover, the other on term limits. I find that countries are more likely to sign FTAs after the unexpected exit of their leaders, when political instability is high. The key finding is partly confirmed in the term-limits strategy as governments are found to form more FTAs during their last term in office.
The option clause is a contractual device from free banking experiences meant to prevent banknote redemption duels. It has been used within the Diamond and Dybvig (J Pol Econ 91: 401–419, 1983) framew
Public decision-makers commonly use health impact assessments (HIA) to quantify the impacts of various regulation policies. However, standard HIAs do not consider that chronic diseases (CDs) can be both caused and exacerbated by a common factor, and generally focus on exacerbations. As an illustration, exposure to near road traffic-related pollution (NRTP) may affect the onset of CDs, and general ambient or urban background air pollution (BP) may exacerbate these CDs. We propose a comprehensive HIA that explicitly accounts for both the acute effects and the long-term effects, making it possible to compute the overall burden of disease attributable to air pollution. A case study applies the two HIA methods to two CDs—asthma in children and coronary heart disease (CHD) in adults over 65—for ten European cities, totaling 1.89 million 0–17-year-old children and 1.85 million adults aged 65 and over. We compare the current health effects with those that might, hypothetically, be obtained if exposure to NRTP was equally low for those living close to busy roads as it is for those living farther away, and if annual mean concentrations of both PM10 and NO2—taken as markers of general urban air pollution—were no higher than 20 μg/m3. Returning an assessment of € 0.55 million (95 % CI 0–0.95), the HIA based on acute effects alone accounts for only about 6.2 % of the annual hospitalization burden computed with the comprehensive method [€ 8.81 million (95 % CI 3–14.4)], and for about 0.15 % of the overall economic burden of air pollution-related CDs [€ 370 million (95 % CI 106–592)]. Morbidity effects thus impact the health system more directly and strongly than previously believed. These findings may clarify the full extent of benefits from any public health or environmental policy involving CDs due to and exacerbated by a common factor.
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Earnings are the product of wages and hours of work; hence, the dispersion of hours can magnify or dampen a given distribution of wages. This paper examines how earnings inequality is affected by the dispersion of working hours using data for the USA, the UK, Germany, and France over the period 1989–2012. We find that hours dispersion can account for over a third of earnings inequality in some countries and that its contribution has been growing over time. We interpret the expansion in hours inequality in European countries as being the result of weaker union power that led to less successful bargaining concerning working hours.
This study is an attempt to evaluate the effects of product and labour market regulations on industry productivity through their various impacts on changes in production prices and wages. In a first stage, the estimation of a regression equation on an industry*country panel, with controls for country*industry and country*year fixed effects, show that multi-factor productivity is negatively and significantly influenced by both indicators of industrial prices from same industry and weighted average of industrial prices from other industries, and by indicators of country wages weighted by industry labour shares for low and high skilled workers. In a second stage, an economic policy simulation of the implications these results on the basis of their calibration by the OECD product and labour market anti-competitive regulation indicators suggests that nearly all countries could expect sizeable gains in multifactor productivity from deregulation reforms.