Alberto Martin

amse seminar

Alberto Martin

Barcelona School of Economics
Falling interest rates and credit misallocation: Lessons from general equilibrium
Lieu

IBD Amphi

Îlot Bernard du Bois - Amphithéâtre

AMU - AMSE
5-9 boulevard Maurice Bourdet
13001 Marseille

Date(s)
Lundi 21 mars 2022| 11:30 - 12:45
Contact(s)

Ewen Gallic : ewen.gallic[at]univ-amu.fr
Avner Seror : avner.seror[at]univ-amu.fr

Résumé

What is the effect of declining interest rates on the efficiency of resource allocation and overall economic activity? We study this question in a setting in which entrepreneurs with different productivity invest in capital, subject to financial frictions. We show that a fall in the interest rate has an ambiguous effect on aggregate output. In partial equilibrium, a lower interest rate raises aggregate investment both by relaxing financial constraints and by prompting relatively less productive entrepreneurs to invest. In general equilibrium, however, this higher demand for capital raises its price and crowds out investment by the more productive entrepreneurs. When this crowding-out effect is strong enough, a fall in the interest rate becomes contractionary. Moreover, in a dynamic setup, such reallocation effects among entrepreneurs interact with the classic balance-sheet channel, giving rise to a boom-bust impulse response of output to a fall in the interest rate. We provide evidence in support of our mechanism using data from the US and Spain.

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