Jean Boutier : jean.boutier[at]univ-amu.fr
Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa : cecilia.garcia-penalosa[at]univ-amu.fr
Eric Roca Fernandez : eric.roca-fernandez[at]univ-amu.fr
Alain Trannoy : alain.trannoy[at]univ-amu.fr
Arundhati Virmani : arundhati.virmani[at]ehess.fr
This paper uses a diﬀerence-in-diﬀerences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used to ﬁght the 1918 inﬂuenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 U.S. cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied for a relatively long and sustained time, might have reduced individual and herd immunity and the population general health condition, thereby leading to a signiﬁcantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years.
Discutante : Anne Rasmussen, EHESS