Guillaume Chapelle

Interdisciplinary seminars
History and economics seminar

Guillaume Chapelle

University of Cergy Pontoise
The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 Influenza in U.S. cities
Wednesday, November 4 2020| 2:30pm to 4:00pm

Jean Boutier: jean.boutier[at]
Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa: cecilia.garcia-penalosa[at]
Eric Roca Fernandez: eric.roca-fernandez[at]
Alain Trannoy: alain.trannoy[at]
Arundhati Virmani: arundhati.virmani[at]


This paper uses a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used to fight the 1918 influenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 U.S. cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied for a relatively long and sustained time, might have reduced individual and herd immunity and the population general health condition, thereby leading to a significantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years.

Discussant: Anne Rasmussen, EHESS

More information