Dufrénot

Publications

Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets: New IndicatorsBook chapterMarcel Aloy, Gilles de Truchis, Gilles Dufrénot et Benjamin Keddad, In: Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics, Gilles Dufrénot, Fredj Jawadi et Waël Louhichi (Eds.), 2014, pp. 273-291, Springer International Publishing, 2014

This paper attempts to provide evidence of “shift-volatility” transmission in the East Asian equity markets. By “shift-volatility”, we mean the volatility shifts from a low level to a high level corresponding respectively to tranquil and crisis periods. We examine the interdependence of equity volatilities between Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the United States. Our main issue is whether shift-volatility needs to be considered as a regional phenomenon, or from a more global perspective. We propose several indicators that are be useful to guide the investors in their arbitrage behavior in the different regimes: the duration of each state, the sensitivity of the volatility in a market following a change in the volatility in another market. Finally, we are able to identify which market can be considered as leading markets in terms of volatility.

Les politiques budgétaires dans la crise : Comprendre les enjeux actuels et les défis futursBookPhilippe Frouté, Laurent Paul, Carine Bouthevillain et Gilles Dufrénot, 2013/09, 360 pages, de boeck, 2013

Les politiques budgétaires sont au coeur de la crise d’ampleur inédite qui affecte l’ensemble des économies avancées. En même temps, la présence accrue des questions de finances publiques dans les
débats économiques se double d’une complexité et d’une urgence nouvelles.
Cet ouvrage traite de l’actualité des politiques budgétaires en répondant à une double originalité : réunir en un seul volume les principaux arguments théoriques et l’analyse des faits les plus notables de la crise et aborder les questions de politique budgétaire sous différents angles — macroéconomique, fiscal, institutionnel et financier
— en montrant les multiples interactions entre ces domaines.
La démarche des auteurs est d’éclairer les enjeux actuels et les défis à venir en décryptant des thématiques complexes dans un langage compréhensible par le grand public. De nombreux exemples concrets permettent au lecteur de s’approprier des concepts et des mécanismes qui sont au centre des débats entre décideurs nationaux
et internationaux, l’accent étant plus particulièrement mis sur la situation de la zone euro.Chacun des six chapitres aborde une thématique particulière et permet au lecteur de progresser selon son niveau de connaissance, avec l’aide d’encadrés approfondissant certains sujets ciblés et de références

bibliographiques permettant d’aller plus loin. Les défis posés par le rôle de la politique budgétaire pour lisser le cycle économique à court terme, soutenir la croissance et l’emploi à long terme et concevoir une fiscalité efficace dans la crise sont exposés sans masquer les clivages des divers courants de pensée économiques. Les clés permettant de comprendre la nouvelle gouvernance économique européenne instaurée en réponse à la crise sont présentées. Enfin, les deux derniers chapitres sont consacrés aux interactions entre crise bancaire et crise des dettes souveraines et aux conséquences des choix effectués pour assurer leur financement dans les pays avancés.
L’ouvrage s’adresse ainsi aux étudiants de l’enseignement supérieur (grandes écoles, instituts d’études politiques, universités), à ceux qui préparent des épreuves d’économie de concours administratifs, notamment de la fonction publique française ou européenne, aux praticiens de la vie économique – journalistes ou chefs d’entreprise – et à toute personne soucieuse de comprendre les enjeux budgétaires dans le monde d’aujourd’hui.

A smooth transition long-memory modelJournal articleMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot, Charles Lai-Tong et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 17, Issue 3, pp. 281-296, 2013

This paper proposes a new fractional model with a time-varying long-memory parameter. The latter evolves nonlinearly according to a transition variable through a logistic function. We present an LR-Based test that allows to discriminate between the standard fractional model and our model. We further apply a nonlinear least squares estimation method to estimate the long-memory parameter. We present an application to the unemployment rate in the United States from 1948 to 2012.

Computational tools in econometric modeling for macroeconomics and financeJournal articleGilles Dufrénot et Fredj Jawadi, Economic Modelling, Volume 34, Issue C, pp. 1-4, 2013

This paper presents the evolution of structural and non-structural macroeconomic models and discusses the progress of quantitative macroeconomics. We also present and discuss several empirical studies that model the statistical properties of the macroeconomic and financial series under consideration in different ways, using diverse econometric and computational tools. We examine the challenges of quantitative macroeconomics. These elements are illustrated by the different contributions of this special issue.

Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset pricesJournal articleLuca Agnello, Gilles Dufrénot et Ricardo M. Sousa, Economic Modelling, Volume 34, Issue C, pp. 25-36, 2013

This paper tests for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the US fiscal policy. By modeling government spending and taxes as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), we find that taxes significantly adjust in a nonlinear fashion to asset prices. In particular, taxes respond to housing and (to a smaller extent) to stock price changes during normal times. However, at periods characterized by high financial volatility, government taxation only counteracts stock market developments (and not the dynamics of the housing sector). As for government spending, it is neutral vis-a-vis the asset market cycles. We conclude that, correcting the fiscal balance and, notably, the revenue side for time-varying effects of asset prices provides a more accurate assessment of the fiscal stance and its sustainability.

West African Single Currency and CompetitivenessJournal articleGilles Dufrénot et Kimiko Sugimoto, Review of Development Economics, Volume 17, Issue 4, pp. 763-777, 2013

This paper compares different nominal anchors to promote internal and external competitiveness in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the future single regional currency of the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS). We use counterfactual analyses and estimate a model of dependent economy for small commodity exporting countries. We consider four foreign anchor currencies: the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Our simulations show little support for a dominant peg in the ECOWAS area if they pursue several goals: maximizing the export revenues, minimizing their variability, stabilizing them and minimizing the real exchange rate misalignments from the fundamental value.

Le Franc CFA face aux turbulences dans la zone euroJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Géopolitique Africaine, Issue 43, 2012

Les crises de dettes publiques et la croissance atone de la zone euro font-elles peser un risque de dévaluation du franc CFA ?

Le contexte économique moribond de l’Europe peut-il entraîner son décrochage par rapport à l’euro ? Au cours des années à venir, assisterons-nous à une évolution de cette monnaie, et sous quelles formes ?

Finite sample properties of tests for STGARCH models and application to the US stock returnsBook chapterGilles Dufrénot, Vêlayoudom Marimoutou et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, In: Progress in Financial Markets Research, C. Kyrtsou (Eds.), 2012, pp. 83-101, Nova Science Publishers, New York, 2012
Testing Catching-Up between the Developing Countries: “Growth Resistance” and sometimes “Growth Tragedy”Journal articleGilles Dufrénot, Valérie Mignon et Théo Naccache, Bulletin of Economic Research, Volume 64, Issue 4, pp. 470-508, 2012

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per-capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non-stationary long-memory models, wavelet models and time-varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long-run growth (the catch-up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non-stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per-capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per-capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.

The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycleJournal articleGilles Dufrénot et Sheheryar Malik, Economic Modelling, Volume 29, Issue 5, pp. 1960-1967, 2012

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.