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Selon l'auteur, professeur d'économie à l'Université d'Aix-Marseille, le statut des pauvres a évolué. Longtemps oubliés du capitalisme, ils seraient devenus des piliers du profit marchand. De cette relation entre deux entités contradictoires émerge un questionnement sur les fondements et l'avenir du système économique capitaliste.
This paper proposes some simple models where the central bank trades off between stabilizing the business cycle and targeting inflation to a level that stabilizes the public debt ratio. We show that in a closed economy fiscal dominance does not necessarily imply hyperinflation. Moreover, in an open economy it is successful in lowering debt ratios when output is reactive enough to unconventional monetary policy and when the expectations of future inflation are well anchored to the debt-stabilization inflation target. We show that the dynamics of both inflation and public debt ratio are described by first-difference equations with time varying coefficients. We provide some conditions for the asymptotic solutions of the long-run steady states. In particular, we define two regimes of respectively strong and weak fiscal dominance, depending upon whether or not the central bank's action ensures both the sustainability and the speed of convergence of debt to its long-term level.
Depuis au moins deux décennies, les économies des pays industrialisés connaissent une décélération tendancielle de l’inflation ainsi qu’un écrasement des cycles de l’inflation. Ces phénomènes sont le résultat de plusieurs facteurs d’ordre structurel.Le premier est l’atténuation des déterminants nationaux de l’inflation. Elle se traduit par une moindre réactivité de l’inflation aux tensions du marché...
Avoiding to assign emerging market countries a ‘typical’ behaviour, this article considers the heterogeneity across them and through time to predict their sovereign default episodes. Moreover, it focuses on the imbalance between defaulted debt and GDP. For the first time, we use a panel nonlinear regime-switching model whose explanatory factors have a different impact on sovereign default, depending on the regime the country belongs to. We mitigate some common views of the literature (in particular the ‘serial default’ theory) and identify countries deserving to be monitored carefully, because of a higher exposure to sovereign default risk.Abbreviation: CRAG : Credit Rating Assessment Group; EMBI: Emerging Market Bond Index; FSI: Financial Stress Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Product; GFC: Global Financial Cycle; GTD: Gonzalez, Teräsvirta, and V. Dijk; IMF: International Monetary Fund; LM: Lagrange Multiplier; PSTR: Panel Smooth Transition Regression; PTR: Panel Threshold Regression; STAR: Smooth Transition Auto Regressive model; US: United States; VIX: Volatility Index
This paper investigates, in the case of the euro area, the standard assumption that the liquidity trap steady state, which arises from the existence of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, is locally unstable. We show that the policy function of the European Central Bank (ECB) is described by a nonlinear Taylor rule. Then, using our estimations, we show that around the liquidity trap steady state the equilibrium is locally determinate for most plausible parameter values. Finally, we find that an inflation shock is more efficient than a demand shock to escape the liquidity trap steady state.
Alors que les politiques d'austérité et les réformes budgétaires décidées par la zone euro ont un impact de plus en plus perceptible sur les millions de citoyens européens, ce livre tente d'offrir une réponse aux questionnements qui traversent l'opinion publique. Au-delà d'un état des lieux de la zone euro, ce livre interroge la pertinence des choix d austérité et pose la question des ajustements à mettre en oeuvre dans une union monétaire entre pays hétérogènes.
This note provides an overview on recent theoretical and empirical developments in decision-making under uncertainty, monetary policy and financial markets. It introduces in particular a special issue that contains a selection of papers presented at the third International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF) in April 2014 in Paris (www.iscef.com). The papers, both theoretical and empirical, discuss issues that improve our understanding of how computational tools can be used to facilitate our understanding of the agents' behaviors and policies.
This paper presents a continuous time stochastic growth model to study the effects of tax evasion and tax corruption on the level and volatility of private investment and public spending that are both factors of growth. The model highlights several channels through which the mean and volatility of these variables are affected. We first stress the role of equity markets, showing that the evasion outcome for the private sector is not necessarily viewed as a burden. Equity market performs here have the same role as a policy of tax exemption. In societies in which the share of private investment in percentage of GDP is growing, in which tax cheaters usually choose to shelter the proceeds of their illegal activities from the official financial institutions, and in which the productivity of public spending is often low, tax evasion and tax corruption may contribute to the development of private capital if people find an opportunity to invest the proceeds of their illegal activities in equity markets.
This paper provides evidence of various reactions of growth rates to changes in the composition of taxes and public spending in Europe. We use a quantile estimator to allow different slopes of fiscal variables, across countries and years. We find that sovereign spending should be encouraged in the medium term if growth is low, but the medium-term effect on the economic activity is not positive in situations of moderate or rapid growth. Human capital expenditure jeopardizes growth, if a country belongs to the group of under-performers, while the initial costs are progressively transformed into growth-friendly factors for the group of over-achievers. Welfare expenditure is unproductive in the medium term, but only above a given growth threshold. Higher direct taxes are more harmful for low-growth countries, since their effects are more persistent than for countries with high growth. Our findings are contrary the idea that one size fits all.
Developments in macro-econometrics have been evolving since the aftermath of the Second World War.[...]