Production Networks and International Fiscal SpilloversJournal articleMichael B. Devereux, Karine Gente et Changhua Yu, The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, pp. 1871-1900, 2023

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a dynamic, multi-country model with international production networks. The response of real gross domestic product to a fiscal spending shock can be decomposed into a direct effect, income effect and price effect. The direct effect depends only on input-output linkages, while the price effect is zero in the aggregate. We apply this decomposition to the Eurozone, and find that fiscal spillovers from Germany and the core Eurozone countries can be large, and within the range of empirical estimates. Without international production networks, spillovers would be significantly smaller. In an empirical application, using the decomposition, we find results strongly consistent with the model.

Migration, remittances and accumulation of human capital with endogenous debt constraintsJournal articleNicolas Destrée, Karine Gente et Carine Nourry, Mathematical Social Sciences, Volume 112, Issue Suppl C, pp. 38-60, 2021

This paper studies the impact of migration and workers’ remittances on human capital and economic growth when young individuals face debt constraints to finance education. We consider an overlapping generations model à la de la Croix and Michel (2007). In this no-commitment setting, education is the engine of growth. Individuals may choose to default on their debt and be excluded from the asset market. We show that remittances tend to tighten the borrowing constraints for a given level of interest rate, but may enhance growth at the equilibrium. The model replicates both negative and positive impacts of migration and remittances on economic growth underlined by the empirical literature. We calibrate the model for 30 economies.

How crucial are preferences for non-tradable goods and cross-country sectoral TFP gap for integration?Journal articleMarion Davin, Karine Gente et Carine Nourry, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 57, Issue C, pp. 166-181, 2018

This paper deals with the effects of economic integration in a 2x 2x 2 model of overlapping generations. We distinguish between a non-tradable and a tradable sector which use human and physical capital. We show that the preference for non-tradable consumption in total consumption expenditure and sectoral productivities are crucial factors to determine which country does benefit from integration in terms of economic growth. Short-run and long-run effects of integration may differ, especially when countries are heterogeneous and when there exist high cross border externalities in education. Moreover, an impatient country may lose to integration when it has a comparative advantage in the tradable sector and/or when the preference for non-tradable goods is high.

Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market viewJournal articleGilles Dufrénot, Karine Gente et Frédia Monsia, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 67, Issue C, pp. 123-146, 2016

This paper tries to identify the macro-financial imbalances that exposed the euro area countries to fiscal stress before the outbreak of the European debt crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom that interprets fiscal stress in terms of fiscal sustainability, we focus on short-term fiscal vulnerability as reflected by the conditions of debt refinancing in the sovereign bond markets. We find that market-based indicators capturing risk perceptions of sovereign debts have been influenced by the indicators defined in the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) and by variables of financial vulnerability. When pricing the risk of sovereign bonds, the holders of government debts take into account, not only the macroeconomic imbalances, but also factors such as banking distress, corporate bond risk, liquidity risks in the interbank market or the volatility of stock prices.

External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?Journal articleKarine Gente, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma et Carine Nourry, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 56, pp. 223-249, 2015

Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an {OLG} model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and {FDI} inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications.

Should a country invest more in human or physical capital?Journal articleMarion Davin, Karine Gente et Carine Nourry, Mathematical Social Sciences, Volume 76, Issue C, pp. 44-52, 2015

Should a country invest more in human or physical capital? Using a two-sector overlapping generations setting with endogenous growth driven by human capital accumulation, we prove that relative factor intensity between sectors drastically shapes the welfare analysis: two identical laissez-faire economies with different sectoral capital shares may generate physical capital excess or scarcity, with respect to the optimum. The design of optimal policy depends on the sectoral properties and the social planner discount rate.

Real exchange rate and productivity in a specific-factor model with skilled and unskilled labourJournal articleThi Hong Thinh Doan et Karine Gente, Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 40, Issue C, pp. 1-15, 2014

The present study develops a two-sector specific factor model in which capital is mobile between sectors. We assume that the traded (non-traded) sector uses skilled (unskilled) labour for production. The theoretical model reveals that the real exchange rate (RER) response to a productivity shock depends on the countries' relative abundance of skilled labour: a rise in traded productivity leads to a higher RER appreciation in a country whose relative skilled labour rate is high. Using panel data, structural break tests confirm that the skilled versus unskilled labour ratio may be a significant splitting variable. In the long run, the relationship between productivity and RER may be positive or negative, as suggested by the theoretical model, depending on the country's relative abundance of skilled labour.

Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG ModelJournal articleThi Hong Thinh Doan et Karine Gente, Annals of Economics and Statistics, Issue 109-110, pp. 259-281, 2013

This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciation in debtor countries, a depreciation in creditor countries, an appreciation in countries whose population growth rate is low.

Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration testsJournal articleMarcel Aloy, Mohamed Boutahar, Karine Gente et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Applied Economics, Volume 45, Issue 7, pp. 817-828, 2013

The recent empirical literature supports the view that most of the international stock prices are not pairwise cointegrated. However, by using fractional cointegration techniques, this article shows that France, Germany, Hong Kong and Japan's stock prices indices are pairwise fractionally cointegrated with US stock prices. Equilibrium errors are mean reverting with half-life lying between 2 and 12 days. It is worthwhile noting that emerging markets like Brazil and Argentina are not pairwise cointegrated with the US stock market. These new results have important implications for asset pricing and international portfolio strategy.

Social optimum in an OLG model with paternalistic altruismJournal articleMarion Davin, Karine Gente et Carine Nourry, Economics Bulletin, Volume 32, Issue 4, pp. 3417-3424, 2012

There is no consensus yet on the correct way to write the social utility function in the presence of paternalistic altruism. This note shows that the specification of the central planner objective is crucial for optimal capital accumulation and growth. When paternalistic altruism enters the social welfare function, we depart from the standard Modified Golden Rule. Capital intensity is no more determined by the equality between optimal returns on human and physical capital, and the optimal growth rate is higher when we consider altruism enters in the social welfare function. We calibrate the model for several countries and emphasize large differences on optimal growth rate, according to the specification of the social welfare function.