Le Grand retour de la terre dans les patrimoines: Et pourquoi c'est une bonne nouvelle!BookAlain Trannoy et Étienne Wasmer, 2022-01-19, 256 pages, Odile Jacob, 2022

a France est riche. La valeur de son patrimoine foncier s'élève aujourd'hui à 7 000 milliards d'euros, soit six années de revenu national, contre à peine une année après la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Comment expliquer cette hausse et à qui profite-t-elle ? S'agit-il d'une bulle immobilière un peu plus durable que les autres ? Et, sinon, quelles conséquences faut-il en tirer pour notre économie ?
Dans ce livre passionnant et minutieusement documenté, Alain Trannoy et Etienne Wasmer expliquent pourquoi la terre urbaine s'est considérablement valorisée au cours des trente dernières années, une tendance que la préférence française pour le foncier et les contraintes écologiques (le "zéro artificialisation") ne peuvent que conforter.
Alors que faire de cette manne providentielle ? Les auteurs proposent ni plus ni moins qu'une révolution fiscale.
Avec un objectif : diminuer fortement les impôts grevant l'activité économique, augmenter les salaires tout en soutenant l'accumulation du capital productif, afin de pérenniser notre modèle social.
Une proposition audacieuse, pour réconcilier justice sociale et efficacité économique.

Ranking populations in terms of inequality of health opportunity: A flexible latent type approachJournal articlePaolo Brunori, Alain Trannoy et Caterina Francesca Guidi, Health Economics, Volume 30, Issue 2, pp. 358-383, 2021

We offer a flexible latent type approach to rank populations according to unequal health opportunities. Building upon the latent-class method, an approch increasingly adopted to estimate health inequalities, our contribution is to let the number of socioeconomic groups considered vary to obtain an opportunity-inequality curve for a population that gives how the between-type inequality varies with the number of types. A population A is said to have less inequality of opportunity than population B if its curve is statistically below that of population B. This version of the latent class approach allows for a robust ranking of 31 European countries regarding inequality of opportunity in health.

Measuring educational inequality of opportunity: pupil’s effort mattersJournal articleNiaz M. Asadullah, Alain Trannoy, Sandy Tubeuf et Gaston Yalonetzky, World Development, Volume 138, pp. 105262, 2021

The distinction between effort and other factors, such as family background, matters for correcting policies and normative reasons when we appeal to inequality of opportunity. We take advantage of a purposefully designed survey on secondary schools in rural Bangladesh to offer a comprehensive view of the importance of overall effort when measuring inequalities of opportunity in education. The analysis comprises decomposition exercises of the predicted variance of student performance in mathematics and English by source (effort, circumstances, etc.) and subgroup (within- and between-schools) based on parametric estimates of educational production functions. Pupils’ effort, preferences, and talents contribute between 31% and 40% of the total predicted variances in performance scores. The contribution of overall effort falls by 10% when the correlation between effort and circumstances is taken into account. These findings are robust to the choice of estimation strategy (i.e. combined within- and between-schools variation models versus multilevel random-effect models). All in all, these results advocate that social determinism in education can be mitigated by individual effort at school.

Les impôts de "déproduction"Journal articleAlain Trannoy, Revue de Droit Fiscal, Issue 10, pp. 159, 2021

Les entreprises françaises vont sortir de la crise le dos au mur avec un taux d’endettement de 86 %, proche du double de celui des entreprises allemandes (45 %) et même supérieur à celui des...

Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxedJournal articleOdran Bonnet, Guillaume Chapelle, Alain Trannoy et Étienne Wasmer, European Economic Review, Volume 134, pp. 103696, 2021

Land is back. The increase in wealth in the second half of 20th century arose from housing and land. It should be taxed. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s standard setup: first best optimal taxation is achieved with a property tax on land and requires no tax on capital. With positive taxes on housing rents, a first best is still possible but with subsidies to rental housing investments, and either with differential land tax rates or with a tax on imputed rents. It can be taxed. Even absent land taxes, one can tax it indirectly and reach a Ramsey-second best still with no tax on capital and positive housing rent taxes in the steady-state. This result extends to the dynamics under restrictions on parameters.

Les dépenses pré-engagées : près d’un tiers des dépenses des ménages en 2017Journal articlePierre-Yves Cusset, Ana Gabriela Prada-Aranguren et Alain Trannoy, La note d'analyse, Volume 102, Issue 4, pp. 1-12, 2021
Egalitarian redistribution in the era of hyper-globalizationJournal articleGianluca Grimalda, Alain Trannoy, Fernando Filgueira et Karl Ove Moene, Review of Social Economy, Volume 78, Issue 2, pp. 151-184, 2020

Two traditional theorems of welfare economics posit a trade-off between a government redistribution targets and efficiency. We propose a third ‘claim’ of welfare economics, stating that in closed economies the actual efficiency costs associated with redistribution are small. We then examine the claim in the current phase of ‘hyper-globalization’. On the one hand, a race-to-the-bottom in taxation restricts the capacity to tax high-earners and the associated brain drain may affect a country’s long-run growth. On the other hand, demand for social insurance should be particularly high in an open economy, especially with advancing digitalization. Xenophobic sentiments may, however, offset this demand. We also discuss the impact of globalization on wage equalization and productive efficiency. We conclude against the idea that the welfare state is intrinsically unable to carry out its redistributive function in an era of globalization. However, its strategies and tools of intervention must be rethought.

Inequality of opportunities in health and death: an investigation from birth to middle age in Great BritainJournal articleDamien Bricard, Florence Jusot, Alain Trannoy et Sandy Tubeuf, International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 49, Issue 5, pp. 1739-1748, 2020

We assess the existence of unfair inequalities in health and death using the normative framework of inequality of opportunities, from birth to middle age in Great Britain.
We use data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, which provides a unique opportunity to observe individual health from birth to the age of 54, including the occurrence of mortality. We measure health status combining self-assessed health and mortality. We compare and statistically test the differences between the cumulative distribution functions of health status at each age according to one childhood circumstance beyond people’s control: the father’s occupation.
At all ages, individuals born to a ‘professional’, ‘senior manager or technician’ father report a better health status and have a lower mortality rate than individuals born to ‘skilled’, ‘partly skilled’ or ‘unskilled’ manual workers and individuals without a father at birth. The gap in the probability to report good health between individuals born into high social backgrounds compared with low, increases from 12 percentage points at age 23 to 26 at age 54. Health gaps are even more marked in health states at the bottom of the health distribution when mortality is combined with self-assessed health.
There is increasing inequality of opportunities in health over the lifespan in Great Britain. The tag of social background intensifies as individuals get older. Finally, there is added analytical value to combining mortality with self-assessed health when measuring health inequalities.

Talent, equality of opportunity and optimal non-linear income taxJournal articleAlain Trannoy, The Journal of Economic Inequality, Volume 17, Issue 1, pp. 5-28, 2019

We adopt a philosophical perspective of equality of opportunity and address the issue of whether outcome inequalities are legitimate when they come from differences in talent. We propose a cumulative definition of talent. In a dynamic setting, talent is a by-product of past-effort, current effort and innate talent, which becomes a residual as time goes by. It implies that talent can change from the status of a circumstance when people are young to an almost responsibility variable when people are getting older. We plug this definition of talent into the Mirrlees model of optimal non-linear income tax and we show that the conflict between the principle of compensation and the principle of natural reward boils down to the optimal income tax with Rawlsian weights in the second-best setting.

The Impact of the ‘Scellier’ Income Tax Relief on Building Land Prices in France / Impact du dispositif Scellier sur les prix des terrains à bâtirJournal articlePierre-Henri Bono et Alain Trannoy, Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Issue 507-508, pp. 91-114, 2019

This study assesses the impact of a tax incentive scheme to boost private rental investment in force in France from 2009 to 2012, called the “Scellier scheme” (after the name of the minister who promoted it), on changes in the price of building land. A difference in differences estimation is implemented, drawing on data from the BNDP database covering the period 2004 2010. The definition of the control and treatment groups is based on the boundary between municipalities which are eligible for the Scellier scheme and municipalities which are not. The estimation results suggest that the scheme had an inflationary effect and point to land price capitalisation, with an increase in the price per square metre of around 7 euros in the first year and of 8 to 9 euros over 2009 and 2010, without a significant rise of the phenome¬non in the second year, i.e. an increase of 8% in the first year and of 9 to 10% after two years. The regions where the market was the tightest saw the most rapid price increase, particularly the Mediterranean region.

Bunching in rank-dependent optimal income tax schedulesJournal articleLaurent Simula et Alain Trannoy, Social Choice and Welfare, Forthcoming

Considering optimal non-linear income tax problems when the social welfare function only depends on ranks as in Yaari (Econometrica 55(1):95–115, 1987) and weights agreeing with the Lorenz quasi-ordering, we extend the analysis of Simula and Trannoy (Am Econ J Econ Policy, 2021) in two directions. First, we establish conditions under which bunching does not occur in the social optimum. We find a sufficient condition on individual preferences, which appears as a reinforcement of the Spence-Mirrlees condition. In particular, the marginal dis-utility of gross income should be convex, but less convex the higher the productivity. We also show that, for all productivity distributions with a log-concave survival function, bunching is precluded under the maximin, Gini, and “illfare-ranked single-series Ginis”. Second, we turn to a discrete population setting, and provide an “ABC” formula for optimal marginal tax rates, which is related to those for a continuum of types found in Simula and Trannoy (2021), but remain essentially distinct.