Modeling Time-Varying Conditional Betas. A Comparison of Methods with Application for REITsBook chapterMarcel Aloy, Floris Laly, Sébastien Laurent et Christelle Lecourt, In: Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, Gilles Dufrénot et Takashi Matsuki (Eds.), 2021-01, pp. 229-264, Springer International Publishing, 2021

Beta coefficients are the cornerstone of asset pricing theory in the CAPM and multiple factor models. This chapter proposes a review of different time series models used to estimate static and time-varying betas, and a comparison on real data. The analysis is performed on the USA and developed Europe REIT markets over the period 2009–2019 via a two-factor model. We evaluate the performance of the different techniques in terms of in-sample estimates as well as through an out-of-sample tracking exercise. Results show that dynamic models clearly outperform static models and that both the state space and autoregressive conditional beta models outperform the other methods.

Mémoire longue dans les séries financières (Chapitre 2)Book chapterMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, In: Méthodes de prévisions en finance, A. Charles, O. Darné et L. Ferrara (Eds.), 2020-09, pp. 29-52, 2020
Austérité budgétaire : remède ou poison ? La zone euro à l'épreuve de la criseBookMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot, Anne Péguin-Feissolle et Michel Aglietta, 2017-10, 150 pages, ATLANDE, 2017

Alors que les politiques d'austérité et les réformes budgétaires décidées par la zone euro ont un impact de plus en plus perceptible sur les millions de citoyens européens, ce livre tente d'offrir une réponse aux questionnements qui traversent l'opinion publique. Au-delà d'un état des lieux de la zone euro, ce livre interroge la pertinence des choix d austérité et pose la question des ajustements à mettre en oeuvre dans une union monétaire entre pays hétérogènes.

Optimal Estimation Strategies for Bivariate Fractional Cointegration Systems and the Co-persistence Analysis of Stock Market Realized VolatilitiesJournal articleMarcel Aloy et Gilles de Truchis, Computational Economics, Volume 48, Issue 1, pp. 83-104, 2016

Estimation methods of bivariate fractional cointegration models are numerous and have in most cases non-equivalent asymptotic and finite sample properties, implying difficulties in determining an optimal estimation strategy. This paper addresses this issue by means of simulations and provides useful guidance to practitioners. Our Monte Carlo study reveals the superiority of techniques that estimate jointly all parameters of interest, over those operating in two steps. To illustrate the empirical relevance of our results, we propose a co-persistence analysis of two stock market realized volatility series.

A Comparison of the Fed’s and ECB’s Strategies during the Subprime CrisisBook chapterMarcel Aloy et Gilles Dufrénot, In: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, W. A. Barnett et F. Jawadi (Eds.), 2015-07, Volume 24, pp. 419-449,Chapitre12, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2015

Abstract This chapter proposes a comparative analysis of the monetary policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank after the 2008 subprime crisis. We point out the twin nature of the financial crises in Europe in comparison with the US crises: in addition to the role of bank funding, the euro area countries have also experienced a structural problem of balance of payment disequilibria. This explains why in the early stages of the subprime crisis, the Fed has succeeded in tackling the illiquidity problems facing the banking sector, while the ECB did not. The Fed could then focus on tackling the recession in the real sector by adopting quantitative easing policies to exert downward pressure on the long-term interest-rate. In the euro area quantitative easing policies came later, in 2013. Even the forward guidance policies have been different between the two central banks. Unlike the ECB, the Fed has gone through diverse forward guidance policies: qualitative, calendar-based, and state-contingent. The chapter proposes a new survey of the monetary policies after the subprime crisis by comparing two strategies in different contexts: the United States and the euro area.

Is financial repression a solution to reduce fiscal vulnerability? The example of France since the end of World War IIJournal articleMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 6, pp. 629-637, 2014

This article contributes to the recent empirical literature on financial repression and focuses on the French case since the end of World War II. We find that the fiscal adjustment needed to lower the debt ratio has been smaller during the years of financial repression in comparison with those of liberalized financial markets. This was possible because the real interest rates were low. We conduct a counterfactual analysis to see whether the vulnerability of public finances would have been different, if, since the late 1980s, the governments had continued carrying out the same financial repression policies. We answer affirmatively showing that the cost of debt service would have been reduced.

Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets: New IndicatorsBook chapterMarcel Aloy, Gilles de Truchis, Gilles Dufrénot et Benjamin Keddad, In: Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics, Gilles Dufrénot, Fredj Jawadi et Waël Louhichi (Eds.), 2014, pp. 273-291, Springer International Publishing, 2014

This paper attempts to provide evidence of “shift-volatility” transmission in the East Asian equity markets. By “shift-volatility”, we mean the volatility shifts from a low level to a high level corresponding respectively to tranquil and crisis periods. We examine the interdependence of equity volatilities between Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the United States. Our main issue is whether shift-volatility needs to be considered as a regional phenomenon, or from a more global perspective. We propose several indicators that are be useful to guide the investors in their arbitrage behavior in the different regimes: the duration of each state, the sensitivity of the volatility in a market following a change in the volatility in another market. Finally, we are able to identify which market can be considered as leading markets in terms of volatility.

A smooth transition long-memory modelJournal articleMarcel Aloy, Gilles Dufrénot, Charles Lai-Tong et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 17, Issue 3, pp. 281-296, 2013

This paper proposes a new fractional model with a time-varying long-memory parameter. The latter evolves nonlinearly according to a transition variable through a logistic function. We present an LR-Based test that allows to discriminate between the standard fractional model and our model. We further apply a nonlinear least squares estimation method to estimate the long-memory parameter. We present an application to the unemployment rate in the United States from 1948 to 2012.

Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration testsJournal articleMarcel Aloy, Mohamed Boutahar, Karine Gente et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Applied Economics, Volume 45, Issue 7, pp. 817-828, 2013

The recent empirical literature supports the view that most of the international stock prices are not pairwise cointegrated. However, by using fractional cointegration techniques, this article shows that France, Germany, Hong Kong and Japan's stock prices indices are pairwise fractionally cointegrated with US stock prices. Equilibrium errors are mean reverting with half-life lying between 2 and 12 days. It is worthwhile noting that emerging markets like Brazil and Argentina are not pairwise cointegrated with the US stock market. These new results have important implications for asset pricing and international portfolio strategy.

Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?Journal articleMarcel Aloy, Mohamed Boutahar, Karine Gente et Anne Péguin-Feissolle, Economic Modelling, Volume 28, Issue 3, pp. 1279-1290, 2011

This paper examines the time series behavior of monthly bilateral real exchange rates (RER) on a comprehensive sample of 78 industrialized and developing countries, using the US Dollar, the UK Pound and the German Deutsche Mark as numeraires. We suggest a three step testing procedure based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the mean-reverting properties of the RER and to address the question of whether real exchange rates follow a non linear process or a long memory process. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most of the bilateral real exchange rates under study are not mean-reverting. Secondly, the nonlinear ESTAR type adjustment is far from being prominent. Finally, only few bilateral RER exhibit true long memory mean-reverting properties.