Céline Gimet

Chercheuse , Sciences Po Aix

Macroéconomie, économie du travail et économie internationale
Gimet
Statut
Professeur des universités
Domaine(s) de recherche
Économie du développement, Finance, Macroéconomie
Thèse
2006, Aix-Marseille Université
Téléchargement
CV
Contact
celine.gimet[at]sciencespo-aix.fr
Adresse

Maison de l'économie et de la gestion d'Aix
424 chemin du viaduc, CS80429
13097 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 2

Résumé This article investigates the impact of European Central Bank policies on credits considering financial and banking fragmentation. Using European data from the past decade, we estimate SVAR models to analyze the regional impact of conventional and unconventional measures on price and volume indicators of fragmentation. The risk-taking channel is studied using GVAR models to document the national consequences of this fragmentation. We find that unconventional measures increase credit in peripheral countries. Monetary policies alleviate fragmentation, but mostly in terms of price dispersion rather than credit volume. Finally, unconventional measures imply a rebalancing of European bank assets in favor of foreign currency denominated-assets.
Mots clés Banking fragmentation, Financial fragmentation, Monetary policy, Risk-taking channel
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Résumé In current economic conditions, financial stability is paramount to the proper functioning of open markets. Financial stability must be balanced with financial flexibility. This relationship is deeply affected by financial fragmentation. This is why Central Banks have focused on these issues in the last decade in particular. Both financial stability and financial fragmentation have unintended consequences on optimal currency areas. In this paper, we survey the original optimal currency areas literature and relate it with the new literature on financial stability and financial fragmentation. We highlight the importance of new macroprudential policies both at the national and regional levels.
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Résumé The following sections are included: •Introduction •Microfinance and Economic Development •Indian Microfinance and the Impact of Commercialization •Minsky's “Financial Instability” Hypothesis •Data and Econometric Methodology •Results and Policy Implications •Conclusions •References
Mots clés Economie quantitative
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Résumé This paper analyzes what features of financial systems can strengthen the linkages between banks and economic development. We investigate whether a set of banking and capital market characteristics can improve the ability of banks to provide increased credit flows to the private sector, while simultaneously improving financial inclusion for the poor. We analyze the determinants of both macro-level lending conditions and micro-level access to finance using a set of Panel Vector Error Correction Models and GMM estimations in a panel of 138 countries for the 2002-2009 time periods. Results converge to suggest that rather than focusing solely on banking sector size, financial policy should seek to foster inter banks competition, develop appropriate macro-prudential safeguards, promote capital market development. In addition, improved access to finance requires adequate civil rights and support to entrepreneurship.
Mots clés Finance, Development, Institutions, GMM, PVEC
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Résumé This paper analyzes the under-investigated relationship uniting financial development and income distribution. We use a novel approach taking into account for the first time the specific channels linking banks, capital markets and income inequality, the time-varying nature of the relationship, and reciprocal causality. We construct a set of annual indicators of banking and capital market size, robustness, efficiency and international integration. We then estimate the determinants of income distribution using a panel Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, for a set of 49 countries over the 1994-2002 period. We uncover a significant causality running from financial sector development to income distribution. In addition, the banking sector seems to exert a stronger impact on inequality. Finally, the relationship appears to depend on characteristics of the financial sector, rather than on its size.
Mots clés Finance, Income distribution, SVAR
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Résumé This paper investigates wether the ongoing financial crisis has destabilized the microstructures of ASEAN stock market. Using daily stock market data from 2007 to 2010, we first develop a set of monthly country-level liquidity, efficiency, international integration and volatility indicators. We then analyze the impact of global market volatility shocks on those indicators, using a set of Bayesian S-VAR models. Finally, forecast error variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function permits to identify the magnitude and the symmetry of ASEAN financial systems' exposures to international shocks. Our results uncover significant and asymmetrical schock transmission channels. We draw implications for the design of future integration initiatives.
Mots clés Microstructures, Regional integration, Schock vulnerability, SVAR
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Mots clés Délocalisation, Externalisation, Fragmentation, Spécialisation appauvrissante, Salaires relatifs, Secteur textile et vêtements
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Résumé With production activity tending rapidly towards international fragmentation, this study examines the consequences for labour countries of the forms of specialisation brought about by fragmentation processes. It further addresses the risk that fragmented sectors may become excluded from greater developments within the manufacturing industry as a whole. An empirical analysis using panel data reveals that, contrary to expectation, the textile and clothing sector in labour countries does not always reap the positive benefits of this form of international trade integration. Rather, we observe a phenomenon of immiserising specialisation, due to a drop in relative wages within this sector.
Mots clés Offshoring, Outsourcing, Fragmentation, Immiserising specialisation, Relative wages, Textile and clothing sector
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Résumé This paper studies the main determinants of bilateral financial flows in the euro area to achieve sustainable and fair financing opportunities. We revisit the modern theory of the optimal currency area considering the impact of heterogeneity in inequality measures, within and across countries, on crossborder financial flows. To do so, we introduce financial and social fragmentation in gravity models of European capital flows. We use data from 19 Eurozone countries from 2000 to 2021 and show how fragmentation impacts capital flows, namely foreign direct investment, cross-border loans as well as portfolios, equity and bond flows. Since capital is, in principle, free to flow in the Eurozone, our analysis directly identifies the roles of potential sources of fragmentation: social inequalities, lack of market openness, and domestic regulations such as macroprudential controls. Overall, our results show that financial integration in Europe entails more capital flows of any type while social fragmentation across European countries is detrimental to capital flows, no matter which type. This is strong evidence of the importance of financial and social fragmentation in the Eurozone on the distribution of capital.
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