Publications

Résumé Has secular education contributed to the decline of polygamy in Africa? To answer this question, we study a wave of public school construction in late-colonial Cameroon. Our difference-in-differences and event-study specifications show that school openings have simultaneously increased education and the chances to be in a polygamous union for men and, more surprisingly, for women. We estimate a structural model of marriage to explain why education made women more likely to be in a polygamous union. The main estimated channel is marriage to educated men who are more often polygamists than uneducated men, not direct preferences for polygamy.
Mots clés Polygamy, Education, Marriage, Matching models
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Résumé This paper introduces the class of quasi score-driven (QSD) models. This new class inherits and extends the basic ideas behind the development of score-driven (SD) models and addresses a number of unsolved issues in the score literature. In particular, the new class of models (i) generalizes many existing models, including SD models, (ii) disconnects the updating equation from the log-likelihood implied by the conditional density of the observations, (iii) allows testing of the assumptions behind SD models that link the updating equation of the conditional moment to the conditional density, (iv) allows QML estimation of SD models, (v) and allows explanatory variables to enter the updating equation. We establish the asymptotic properties of the QLE, QMLE and MLE of the proposed QSD model as well as the likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier test statistics. The finite sample properties are studied by means of an extensive Monte Carlo study. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of QSD models to estimate the conditional variance of 400 US stocks.
Mots clés Score-driven models, GARCH, Fat-tails, Asymmetry, QLE, QMLE
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Résumé We propose an inertial proximal point method for variational inclusion involving difference of two maximal monotone vector fields in Hadamard manifolds. We prove that if the sequence generated by the method is bounded, then every cluster point is a solution of the non-monotone variational inclusion. Some sufficient conditions for boundedness and full convergence of the sequence are presented. The efficiency of the method is verified by numerical experiments comparing its performance with classical versions of the method for monotone and non-monotone problems.
Mots clés Variational inclusion, Proximal point method, Monotone vector fields, DC functions, Hadamard manifolds
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Résumé Throughout our project on premodern academia, we use a heuristic human capital index to measure each scholar’s quality. This index is built by combining several statistics from individual Wikipedia and Worldcat pages. The question we address here is whether this measure is correlated with the actual wages professors received. This note is a technical appendix to our paper on the academic market (De la Croix et al. 2020) but also has an interest as a stand-alone publication. There is considerable evidence that compensations for academic contractswentwell beyond paid salaries.1 They included payments from students, prebends,2 and many forms of in-kind benefits. Yet, it is interesting to examine the relationship between scholars’ human capital and existing data on monetary remunerations. Such remunerations have been used by Dittmar (2019) to show that professor salaries increased significantly relative to skilled wages after printing spread, with science professors benefiting from the largest salary increases. In the two sections below, we first review the available data on salaries, and argue that such data are imperfect proxies for the overall remuneration for academic services (i.e. a scholar’s market value). Keeping in mind such limitations, we thendocument a positive correlation between monetary income and scholars’ human capital.
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Résumé We study price personalization in a two period duopoly with horizontally differentiated products. In the second period, a firm has collected detailed information on its old customers, using it to engage in price personalization. Customers, when returning to buy, may choose to incur a cost in order to access the standard offer of their previous provider in addition to its personalized offer and the standard offer of its rival. The analysis confirms that firms’ second period profits are boosted when consumers are active in this sense (being equal to perfect price discrimination ones when initial market hares do not differ too much) but it reveals that this advantage is dissipated and possibly over-dissipated by the resulting fierce first-period competition for the market. Two-period aggregate profits are smaller with active customers provided the consumers are naive and/or the firms patient enough. Consumers’ access to both personalized and standard firms’ offers which benefit the oligopolists in mature markets may plausibly hurt them in emergent ones. The equilibrium is shown not to depend on the level of the cost as long as it is below some critical value.
Mots clés Identity management, Active customers, Behavior-Base price discrimination
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Résumé This study investigates the effects of the investment-based presence of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on poverty in developing countries. The relationship is decomposed into different pathways corresponding to various facets of firms’ presence and activities, and monetary and multidimensional poverty. We hypothesize that depending on the pathways, the effects can be positive or negative in terms of poverty alleviation, and an overall conclusion has to be nuanced. The hypotheses are tested across 431 Indonesian administrative districts, observed in 2008, 2014 and 2018. Pooled instrumental variable regressions show that a higher presence of foreign MNEs does not reduce the number of people below the poverty line. It raises the depth and severity of poverty, and the population is also more exposed to pollutions. These results inform the ongoing debate, and offer important implications for policy makers eager to attract foreign direct investments, as well as for MNEs’ managers concerned with social responsibility and achieving sustainable development goals in host developing countries.
Mots clés Indonesia, Developing country, CSR, Poverty, FDI, Multinational enterprises
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Résumé We study how firm premia influence the gender wage gap for 21 European countries. We use a quadrennial harmonized matched employer-employee dataset to estimate gender-specific firm premia. Subsequently, we decompose the firm-specific wage premia differential into withinand between-firm components. On average, the former accounts mainly for the decline in the pay gap between 2002 and 2014. We pay particular attention to the development of each component by age group, and find that the between-firm component is associated with an increase in the gender pay gap over age. The decomposition of firm premia allows us to investigate how institutional settings relate to each component. We associate the within-firm component with collective bargaining at the national and firm levels, and the between-firm component with family policies. Decentralized wage bargaining is associated with a larger within-firm pay gap, whereas family policies incentivizing women to return to employment after family formation are linked to a smaller between-firm component.
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Résumé This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under varying degrees of employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.
Mots clés Uncertainty shocks Real-time data, Rational forecast error, Employment protection legislation, System of national accounts
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Résumé We formulate a hydro-economic model of the North-Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) to assess the effects of intensive pumping on the groundwater stock and examine the subsequent consequences of aquifer depletion. This large system comprises multi-layer reservoirs with vertical exchanges, all exploited under open access properties. We first develop a theoretical model to account for relevant features of the NWSAS by introducing, in the standard Gisser-Sanchez model, a non-stationary demand and quadratic stock-dependent cost functions. In the second step, we calibrate parameters values using data from the NWSAS over 1955–2000. We finally simulate the time evolution of the aquifer system with exploitation under an open-access regime. We specifically examine time trajectories of the piezometric levels in the two reservoirs, the natural outlets, and the modification of water balances. We find that natural outlets of the two reservoirs might be totally dried before 2050.
Mots clés Hydro-economic model, Private pumping, Multi aquifer system, Groundwater-dependant ecosystems, Semi-arid region, Simulation
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