Publications

Résumé This paper introduces a novel mechanism driving endogenous business cycle fluctuations within a frictionless three-sector intertemporal equilibrium model. We emphasize the critical role of consumer preferences as a primary driver of cyclical dynamics by considering a consumption bundle composed of a pure consumption good and a mixed consumption-investment good that simultaneously serves as both a final consumption good and a capital-accumulating investment good. Endogenous fluctuations naturally arise from sectoral capital intensity differences, an intertemporal consumption trade-off between the two goods, or the interaction of both mechanisms. We offer a detailed characterization of the economy's dynamics, identifying the Hopf bifurcation conditions that trigger persistent cyclical behavior. Additionally, we explore the periodicity of the resulting limit cycles, providing insights into how shifts in preferences and sectoral complementarities can generate self-sustained macroeconomic fluctuations.
Mots clés Three-sector intertemporal equilibrium growth models, Business cycles fluctuations, Hopf bifurcation, Endogenous cycle, Periodicity
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Résumé Clustering is widely used in unsupervised learning to fnd homogeneous groups of observations within a dataset. However, clustering mixed-type data remains a challenge, as few existing approaches are suited for this task. Tis study presents the state-of-the-art of these approaches and compares them using various simulation models. Te compared methods include the distance-based approaches k-prototypes, PDQ, and convex k-means, and the probabilistic methods KAy-means for MIxed LArge data (KAMILA), the mixture of Bayesian networks (MBNs), and latent class model (LCM). Te aim is to provide insights into the behavior of diferent methods across a wide range of scenarios by varying some experimental factors such as the number of clusters, cluster overlap, sample size, dimension, proportion of continuous variables in the dataset, and clusters' distribution. Te degree of cluster overlap and the proportion of continuous variables in the dataset and the sample size have a signifcant impact on the observed performances. When strong interactions exist between variables alongside an explicit dependence on cluster membership, none of the evaluated methods demonstrated satisfactory performance. In our experiments KAMILA, LCM, and k-prototypes exhibited the best performance, with respect to the adjusted rand index (ARI). All the methods are available in R.
Mots clés Bayesian networks, Clustering, KAMILA, LCM, Mixed-type data
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Résumé For standard inequality measures, distribution-free inference methods are valid under conventional assumptions that fail to hold in applications. Resulting Bahadur-Savage type failures are documented, and correction methods are provided. Proposed solutions leverage on the positive support prior that can be defended with economic data such as income, in which case directional non-parametric tests can be salvaged. Simulation analysis with generalized entropy measures allowing for heavy tails and contamination reveals that proposed lower confidence bounds provide concrete size and power improvements, particularly through bootstraps. Empirical analysis on within-country wage inequality and on world income inequality illustrates the usefulness of the proposed lower bound, as opposed to the erratic behavior of traditional upper bounds.
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Résumé Chacun peut être amené au cours de sa vie à s’intéresser à l’histoire pour saisir les enjeux d’un affrontement entre groupes sociaux ou mieux appréhender comment les doctrines naissent et disparaissent. L’économie, de son côté, est devenue omniprésente. On écoute aujourd’hui les économistes comme les Grecs et les Romains écoutaient les oracles. L’histoire et l’économie sont donc des disciplines incontournables. Dans ces temps troublés, on aimerait que ces deux disciplines, aux méthodes parfois antagonistes, associent leurs génies respectifs, l’histoire offrant la perspective du temps long, l’économie offrant la panoplie la plus actuelle de méthodes quantitatives.
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Résumé This paper focuses on the welfare effects of domestic and international lobbying in the context of two countries linked by both trade and pollution. We consider a reciprocal-markets model where, in each country, a domestic firm produces a polluting good, that can result in a cross-national environmental externality, and competes in quantities in each market with a foreign firm. Each government independently sets a pollution tax under political pressure from green and industrial lobbies à la Grossman and Helpman (1994). Our results mainly show that political pressure from domestic and/or international lobbies can help mitigate tax competition between the two countries, resulting in an improvement in social welfare. In fact, lobbying acts much like a strategic delegation device by changing the social welfare weights in the objective function of each government. The (potential) welfare-improving effect of political pressure depends on the relative strengths of the lobbies and on the nature of the strategic interactions in taxes.
Mots clés Lobbying, Transboundary pollution, International trade, International politics, Environmental tax
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Résumé C’est la version économique de la quadrature du cercle : comment à la fois investir massivement pour la transition écologique et maîtriser la dette pour retrouver des marges de manœuvre financières ? Sous certaines conditions, les deux sont possibles simultanément. Découvrez comment.
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Résumé As countries develop and experience structural transformation, the gendered patterns of labor change. We use harmonized labor force data and do not find evidence that women's share of the agricultural labor force is positively correlated with per capita income. Yet, the evidence shows many changes taking place that vary across locations. We identify five areas that require attention to understand these processes of change: the patterns of joint ownership and management among smallholder farmers, the responses to the migration of men off‐farm, shifts across sectoral boundaries, time spent on domestic services and care work, and the impact on empowerment. It is important to go beyond the number of people employed in production agriculture to understand the many ways that the gendered patterns of labor are changing.
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Résumé L’urgence d’agir face au changement climatique n’a jamais été aussi pressante. Les coûts liés à ces perturbations sont extrêmement élevés : baisse des rendements agricoles, effets sur la santé des populations, perte de la biodiversité… Contribuant à l’amélioration de notre niveau de vie, l’économie est aussi responsable de l’augmentation incontrôlée des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Source du problème, notre système économique est-il capable de répondre efficacement à l’urgence climatique ? Fanny Henriet invite à prendre en compte les différentes solutions possibles : décroissance, progrès technique, sobriété. Elle insiste sur la nécessité de dépasser les seules responsabilités individuelles pour engager une politique publique ambitieuse, capable de mobiliser les États comme les entreprises.
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Résumé This paper examines how two smoking-related parental health shocks affect offspring smoking behavior depending on the timing of the health shock. A descriptive analysis restricted to individuals whose parents were diagnosed with lung cancer or another smoking-related cancer suggests different smoking behaviors depending on the age of the individual at diagnosis. We build a retrospective panel and use individual fixed effects to control for the endogeneity of the timing of the diagnosis and to neutralize the intergenerational transmission effect in smoking behaviors. Doing so, we aim at evaluating the extent to which a parental diagnosis acts as an informational shock and affects offspring behavior by bringing salient information about the health hazards of smoking. We find that receiving a parental diagnosis reduces the long-term probability of being a smoker. This effect is driven by individuals receiving the parental diagnosis at the age when the decision to smoke is about to be made. The informational shock effect associated with lung cancer appears systematically stronger than the informational shock effect associated with other smoking-related cancers.
Mots clés Smoking, Health shocks, Intergenerational transmission
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Résumé This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms’ network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.
Mots clés Knowledge diffusion, Innovation networks, Spatial frictions, Patent citations
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