Publications

Résumé This paper presents a classroom experiment on the Traveler's Dilemma in order to show the impact of the common knowledge of the value of the luggage. This value becomes a focal point that canalizes the behavior of the students. This leads us to commenting on the impact of such focal points both on the reasoning of the players and on the structure of the game. We construct a new game which models this impact and we study its Nash equilibrium.
Mots clés Traveler&#039, s dilemma, Honesty, Classroom experiment, Focal point, Nash equilibrium, Dilemme du voyageur, Equilibre de Nash, Point focal, Expérience en classe, Honnêteté
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Résumé Background: Sexual and gender diverse people face intersecting factors affecting their well-being and livelihood. These include homophobic reactions, stigma or discrimination at the workplace and in healthcare facilities, economic vulnerability, lack of social support, and HIV. This study aimed to examine the association between such factors and symptoms of anxiety and depression among sexual and gender diverse people. Methods: This study is based on a sample of 108,389 gay, bisexual, queer and questioning men, and transfeminine people from 161 countries collected through a cross-sectional internet survey. We developed a multinomial logistic regression for each group to study the associations of the above factors at different severity scores for anxiety and depression symptoms. Results: Almost a third (30.3%) of the participants reported experiencing moderate to severe symptoms of anxiety and depression. Higher severity scores were found for transfeminine people (39%), and queer or questioning people (34.8%). Severe symptoms of anxiety and depression were strongly correlated with economic hardship for all groups. Compared to those who are HIV-negative, those living with HIV were more likely to report severe symptoms of anxiety and depression, and the highest score was among those who do not know their HIV status. Transfeminine people were the most exposed group, with more than 80% higher risk for those living with HIV suffering from anxiety and depression. Finally, homophobic reactions were strongly associated with anxiety and depression. The relative risk of severe anxiety and depression was 3.47 times higher for transfeminine people facing transphobic reactions than those with no symptoms. Moreover, anxiety and depression correlate with stigma or discrimination in the workplace and healthcare facilities. Conclusions: The strong association between the severity of anxiety and depression, and socioeconomic inequality and HIV status highlights the need for concrete actions to meet the United Nations' pledge to end inequalities faced by communities and people affected by HIV. Moreover, the association between stigma or discrimination and anxiety and depression among sexual and gender diverse people is alarming. There is a need for bold structural public health interventions, particularly for transfeminine, queer and questioning people who represent three communities under the radar of national HIV programmes.
Mots clés PHQ-4, Stigma and discrimination, Homophobia, HIV, Anxiety, Depression, Queer, Transgender, Bisexual, Gay, LGBT
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Résumé This paper develops a search and matching framework in which workers are characterised by asymmetric reference-dependent reciprocity, and firms set wages by considering the effect that these can have on workers' effort, and therefore on output. The cyclical response of effort to wage changes can considerably amplify shocks, independently of the cyclicality of the hiring wage, which becomes irrelevant for unemployment volatility; and firms' expectations of downward wage rigidity in existing jobs increases the volatility of job creation. The model is consistent with evidence on hiring and incumbents' wage cyclicality, and provides novel predictions on the dynamics of effort.
Mots clés Reciprocity, Wage cyclicality, Downward wage rigidity, Job creation, Unemployment volatility
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Résumé This paper introduces an autoregressive conditional beta (ACB) model that allows regressions with dynamic betas (or slope coefficients) and residuals with GARCH conditional volatility. The model fits in the (quasi) score-driven approach recently proposed in the literature, and it is semi-parametric in the sense that the distributions of the innovations are not necessarily specified. The time-varying betas are allowed to depend on past shocks and exogenous variables. We establish the existence of a stationary solution for the ACB model, the invertibility of the score-driven filter for the time-varying betas, and the asymptotic properties of one-step and multistep QMLEs for the new ACB model. The finite sample properties of these estimators are studied by means of an extensive Monte Carlo study. Finally, we also propose a strategy to test for the constancy of the conditional betas. In a financial application, we find evidence for time-varying conditional betas and highlight the empirical relevance of the ACB model in a portfolio and risk management empirical exercise.
Mots clés Betas, GARCH model, Time-varying parameters, Score driven model
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Résumé Objectives: We propose a general framework for estimating long-term health and economic effects that takes into account four time-related aspects.We apply it to a reduction in exposure to air pollution in the Canton of Geneva. Study design: Methodological developments on the evaluation of long-term economic and health benefits, with an empirical illustration. Methods: We propose a unified frameworkdthe comprehensive impact assessment (CIA)dto assess the long-term effects of morbidity and mortality in health and economic terms. This framework takes full account of four time-related issues: cessation lag, policy/technical implementation timeframe, discounting and time horizon. We compare its results with those obtained from standard quantitative health impact assessment (QHIA) in an empirical illustration involving air pollution reduction in the canton of Geneva. Results: We find that by neglecting time issues, the QHIA estimates greater health and economic benefits than the CIA. The overestimation is about 50% under reasonable assumptions and increases ceteris paribus with the magnitude of the cessation lag and the discount factor. It decreases both with the time horizon and with the implementation timeframe. Conclusion: A proper evaluation of long-term health and economic effects is an important issue when they are to be used in cost-benefit analyses, particularly for mortality, which often represents the largest fraction. We recommend using the CIA to calculate more accurate values.
Mots clés Long-term health effects, Switzerland, Economic assessment, Air pollution, Comprehensive impact assessment, Quantitative health impact assessment
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Résumé What is the role of income polarization for explaining differentials in public funding of education? To answer this question, we provide a new theoretical modelling for the income distribution that can directly monitor income polarization. It leads to a new income polarization index where the middle class is represented by an interval. We implement this distribution in a political economy model with endogenous fertility and public/private educational choices. We show that when households vote on public schooling expenditures, polarization matters for explaining disparities in public education funding across communities. Using micro-data covering two groups of school districts, we find that both income polarization and income inequality affect public school funding with opposite signs whether there exist a Tax Limitation Expenditure (TLE) or not.
Mots clés Education politics, Schooling choice, Income polarization, Probabilistic voting, Bayesian inference
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Résumé Entrepreneurship, growth and total factor productivity are larger when asset prices are high and decline during financial crises. We explain these facts using a growth model with financial bubbles in which individuals have heterogeneous wages and returns on productive investment. Heterogeneity separates individuals between savers and entrepreneurs. Savers buy financial assets, which are deposits or a financial bubble. Entrepreneurs incur in a start-up cost and borrow to invest in productive capital. The bubble provides liquidities to credit-constrained entrepreneurs. These liquidities increase investment, growth and entrepreneurship. Finally, the bubble may increase productivity when the return of each entrepreneur's investment is positively correlated with her previous income.
Mots clés Bubble, Entrepreneurship, Growth, Productivity
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Résumé Worrisome topics, such as climate change, economic crises, or pandemics including Covid-19, are increasingly present and pervasive due to digital media and social networks. Do worries triggered by such topics affect the cognitive capacities of young adults? In an online experiment during the Covid-19 pandemic (N=1503), we test how the cognitive performance of university students responds when exposed to topics discussing (i) current adverse mental health consequences of social restrictions or (ii) future labor market hardships linked to the economic contraction. Moreover, we study how such a response is affected by a performance goal. We find that the labor market topic increases cognitive performance when it is motivated by a goal, consistent with a 'tunneling effect' of scarcity or a positive stress effect. However, we show that the positive reaction is mainly concentrated among students with larger financial and social resources, pointing to an inequality-widening mechanism. Conversely, we find limited support for a negative stress effect or a 'cognitive load effect' of scarcity, as the mental health topic has a negative but insignificant average effect on cognitive performance. Yet, there is a negative response among psychologically vulnerable individuals when the payout is not conditioned on reaching a goal.
Mots clés Human behaviour, Psychology and behaviour
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Résumé To what extent protectionism affects growth and (de)stabilizes the economies? Although the impact of protectionism on growth has been widely explored without reaching a consensus, few has been said on its impact on macroeconomic stability. The present paper attempts to gauge more precisely its implications using a Barro-type (Barro, 1990) endogenous growth model with public debt and credit constraint where tariffs are a proxy of protectionism. Our main result is to show that when the debt level is high, and the share of foreign goods in total consumption is large enough, increasing tariffs may have a destabilizing effect generating some expectation coordination failures between multiple equilibria. We also exhibit some trade-off between tariffs and growth as tariffs are beneficial only to the low growth equilibrium which may only appear when the international interest rate is low enough. Finally, focusing on the local stability property, we show that the high BGP is always characterized by local indeterminacy, while the low BGP is always a saddle point. We then prove that tariffs may be responsible for the existence of large self-fulfilling fluctuations.
Mots clés Public debt, Tariffs, Small open economy, Credit constraint, Global and local indeterminacy
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Résumé Lower tariffs typically raise productivity, production, and trade, increasing the benefits from building infrastructure. Infrastructure spending by governments should therefore increase after countries open up to trade. I test this hypothesis empirically using a trade reform in India and find that a 1 percentage point reduction in tariffs in- creased states’ infrastructure spending by 0.5% between 1991 and 2001. To understand the mechanisms behind my empirical findings, I develop and calibrate a multi-region model of international trade, private capital accumulation, and infrastructure spending, in which each government chooses such spending to maximize their state’s welfare. I find if governments choose infrastructure following the reform optimally, infrastructure would have increased by 60% on average. The actual increase, based on my empirical findings, was about 29%. Counterfactual exercises show that raising aggregate infras- tructure towards its optimal following the trade reform will result in state GDP to increase by 7% points on average.
Mots clés Infrastructures, Tariffs, Trade
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