Publications

Résumé Numeracy, or the ability to understand and use numbers, has been associated with obtaining better health and financial outcomes. Studies in high-income countries suggest that low numeracy is associated with older age—perhaps especially among individuals with lower education. Here, we examined whether findings generalize to the rest of the world. Methods Gallup surveyed >150,000 participants for the 2019 Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, from 21 low-income, 34 lower-middle income, 42 upper-middle income, and 43 high-income countries. Low numeracy was operationalized as failing to correctly answer, “Is 10% bigger than 1 out of 10, smaller than 1 out of 10, or the same as 1 out of 10?” Results Regressions controlling for participants’ education, income, and other characteristics found that, worldwide, low numeracy was associated with older age, lower education, and their interaction. Findings held in each country-income category, although low numeracy was more common in low-income countries than in high-income countries. Limitations Age differences may reflect cohort effects and life span–developmental changes. Discussion Low numeracy is more common among people who are older and less educated. We discuss the need for education and interventions outside of the classroom. Highlights We analyzed a global survey conducted in 21 low-income, 34 lower-middle income, 42 upper-middle income, and 43 high-income countries. Low numeracy was associated with older adult age, even after accounting for age differences in education. Low numeracy was more common in older people with lower education.
Mots clés Number ability, Cognitive ability, Age-related decline
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Résumé Considering optimal non-linear income tax problems when the social welfare function only depends on ranks as in Yaari (Econometrica 55(1):95–115, 1987) and weights agreeing with the Lorenz quasi-ordering, we extend the analysis of Simula and Trannoy (Am Econ J Econ Policy, 2021) in two directions. First, we establish conditions under which bunching does not occur in the social optimum. We find a sufficient condition on individual preferences, which appears as a reinforcement of the Spence-Mirrlees condition. In particular, the marginal dis-utility of gross income should be convex, but less convex the higher the productivity. We also show that, for all productivity distributions with a log-concave survival function, bunching is precluded under the maximin, Gini, and “illfare-ranked single-series Ginis”. Second, we turn to a discrete population setting, and provide an “ABC” formula for optimal marginal tax rates, which is related to those for a continuum of types found in Simula and Trannoy (2021), but remain essentially distinct.
Mots clés Optimal Income Taxation, Bunching, Log-Concavity, Gini, Rank dependence
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Résumé This paper investigates how labour market regulations alter the adverse impact of rising import competition from China in European local labour markets between 1997 and 2006. The paper constructs measures of regional exposure to Chinese imports based on previous literature and on regional labour market frictions exploiting involuntary labour reallocations. Taking into account the endogeneity of import competition and its interaction with labour market regulations, the paper finds that regions more exposed to the rise of China have suffered from a reduction in manufacturing employment shares. This shock grows larger with regional labour market frictions; hence, it exacerbates the impact of trade shock on employment. Moreover, the paper finds that employment in public services, and not in construction or private services sector, absorbed the negative shock to the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate, the labour force participation rate and wages in all sectors are unresponsive to import competition from China.
Mots clés Empirical trade, Employment structure, Labour reallocation, Regional labour markets
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Résumé Under income-differentiated mortality, poverty measures suffer from a selection bias: they do not count the missing poor (i.e., persons who would have been counted as poor provided they did not die prematurely). The Pre-Industrial period being characterized by an evolutionary advantage (i.e., a higher number of surviving children per household) of the non-poor over the poor, one may expect that the missing poor bias is substantial during that period. This paper quantifies the missing poor bias in Pre-Industrial societies, by computing the hypothetical headcount poverty rates that would have prevailed provided the non-poor did not benefit from an evolutionary advantage over the poor. Using data on Pre-Industrial England and France, we show that the sign and size of the missing poor bias are sensitive to the degree of downward social mobility.
Mots clés Measurement, Selection effects, Missing poor, Poverty
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Résumé The objective of this study was to explore and describe the specificities of the occupational life of infertile endometriotic women treated by in vitro fertilization. We conducted a qualitative monocentric study between December 2020 and June 2021. Twelve semi-structured in-depth interviews using a theme-based interview guide with open questions were undertaken with infertile women with deep infiltrating endometriosis. Data analysis was conducted using an inductive approach according to the grounded theory method. Three main themes emerged from the interviews: (i) barriers to reconciling illness and work life, (ii) facilitating factors for well-being at work, and (iii) consequences and outlooks. It appeared that the time of infertility treatment represents a particular period of change in the working lives of women with endometriosis. For most women, these changes are experienced negatively, often with a renunciation of goals. For others, this is the time to communicate the difficulties linked to their illness to their professional entourage. There is a long path ahead to finally achieving recognition of endometriosis in the context of professional life.
Mots clés Qualitative study, In vitro fertilization, Endometriosis
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Résumé We build up a general purpose decision model to predict the choice between going to war and staying at peace for a rational decision-maker. This model articulates root causes such as the risk of future war and parameters such as potential gains in case of victory, potential losses in case of defeat, the probability of victory and the war human losses. We apply and calibrate this model to the case of German and French decision-makers at the very end of July 1914, taking into account the decisions already taken by Austria-Hungary and Russia and the uncertainty surrounding the decision of Great Britain. We assume a short war that does not last beyond 1914. Our model predicts the entry into the war of Germany and France, the argument of preventive war (going to war today rather than tomorrow) proving to be decisive for both countries, with the added benefit for France of the potential recovery of Alsace-Moselle in the event of victory. The computation reveals that of the two countries, it was France that seems to have the most interest in the war, making it possible to explain the passive behavior of the French leaders, Raymond Poincaré in the first place, who, if they did not provoke the war, did not really try to avoid it either.
Mots clés WWI, Preventive war, Rational decision making, Raymond Poincaré, Bethmann-Hollweg, Guerre de 14-18, Guerre préventive, Modèle de décision rationnelle, Raymond Poincaré, Bethmann-Hollweg
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Résumé This paper uses a novel dataset on ethnic warfare to shed light on how conflict affects social identification and cohesion. A large body of anecdotal studies suggests that ethnic identities become more salient at times of conflict. Using data from eighteen sub-Saharan countries, I provide econometric evidence for such a claim. The effect of ethnic conflict on various measures of social cohesion is also investigated, uncovering a positive relationship between the two. The finding is understood as a result of the ethnocentric dynamics generated by conflict: as ethnic warfare increases ethnic identification, in-group cooperation follows suit. This parochial interpretation is further strengthened by the use of remote violence and the conditionality of conflict-induced pro-social behaviour on low levels of ethnic polarisation.
Mots clés Africa, Identity, Social cohesion, Ethnic conflict
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Résumé In pharmaceutical studies, the Quality by Design (QbD) approach is increasingly being implemented to improve product development. Product quality is tested at each step of the manufacturing process, allowing a better process understanding and a better risk management, thus avoiding manufacturing defects. A key element of QbD is the construction of a Design Space (DS), i.e., a region in which the specifications on the output parameters should be met. Among the various possible construction methods, Designs of Experiments (DoE), and more precisely Response Surface Methodology, represent a perfectly adapted tool. The DS obtained may have any geometrical shape; consequently, the acceptable variation range of an input may depend on the value of other inputs. However, the experimenters would like to directly know the variation range of each input so that their variation domains are independent. In this context, we developed a method to determine the “Proven Acceptable Independent Range” (PAIR). It consists of looking for all the hyper polyhedra included in the multidimensional DS and selecting a hyper polyhedron according to various strategies. We will illustrate the performance of our method on different DoE cases.
Mots clés Quality by Design QbD, Design of Experiments DoE, Response Surface Methodology RSM, Design Space DS, Proven Acceptable Independent Range PAIR
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Résumé With the low adherence to voluntary mutual health insurance, Senegal’s policymakers have sought to understand the feasibility of compulsory health insurance membership. This study aims to measure the acceptability of mandatory membership in community-based mutual health insurance (CBHI) and to understand its possible administrative modalities. The study consists of a national survey among a representative population sample selected by marginal quotas. The survey was conducted in 2022 over the phone, with a random composition method involving 914 people. The questionnaire measured the socio-economic characteristics of households, their level of acceptability concerning voluntary and compulsory membership, and their level of confidence in CBHIs and the health system. Respondents preferred voluntary (86%) over mandatory (70%) membership of a CBHI. The gap between voluntary and compulsory membership scores was smaller among women (p = 0.040), people under 35 (p = 0.033), and people with no health coverage (p = 0.011). Voluntary or compulsory membership was correlated (p = 0.000) to trust in current CBHIs and health systems. Lack of trust in the CBHI management has been more disadvantageous for acceptance of the mandatory than the voluntary membership. No particular preference emerged as the preferred administrative channel (e.g. death certificate, identity card, etc.) to enforce the mandatory option. The results confirmed the well-known challenges of building universal health coverage based on CBHIs—a poorly appreciated model whose low performance reduces the acceptability of populations to adhere to it, whether voluntary or mandatory. Suppose Senegal persists in its health insurance approach. In that case, it will be essential to strengthen the performance and funding of CBHIs, and to gain population trust to enable a mandatory or more systemic membership.
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