Publications

Résumé Aims: we propose a sociotechnical taxonomy for the analysis of socioeconomic disruptions caused by technological innovations. Methodology: a transdisciplinary principled approach is used to build the taxonomy through categorization and characterization of technologies using concepts and definitions originating from cybernetics, occupational science, and economics. The sociotechnical taxonomy is then used, with the help of logical propositions, to connect the characteristics of different categories of technologies to their socioeconomic effects, for example their externalities. Results: we offer concrete illustrations of concepts and uses, and an Industry 5.0 case study as an application of the taxonomy. We suggest that the taxonomy can inform the analysis of opportunities and risks related to technological disruptions, specially of those that result from the rise of cognitive machines.
Mots clés Cognitive machines, Sociotechnical taxonomy, Occupational science, Artificial intelligence, Technological disruptions, Industry 50, Externalities, Skillreplacing, Skill-enhancing, Cognitive technology, Physical technology, Autonomous, Automatic, Technological innovations
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Résumé In the Design of Experiments , we seek to relate response variables to explanatory factors. Response Surface methodology (RSM) approximates the relation between output variables and a polynomial transform of the explanatory variables using a linear model. Some researchers have tried to adjust other types of models, mainly nonlinear and nonparametric. We present a large panel of Machine Learning approaches that may be good alternatives to the classical RSM approximation. The state of the art of such approaches is given, including classification and regression trees, ensemble methods, support vector machines, neural networks and also direct multi-output approaches. We survey the subject and illustrate the use of ten such approaches using simulations and a real use case. In our simulations, the underlying model is linear in the explanatory factors for one response and nonlinear for the others. We focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and show how their hyperparameters may be tuned. Our simulations show that even when the underlying relation between the response and the explanatory variables is linear, the RSM approach is outperformed by the direct neural network multivariate model, for any sample size (
Mots clés Design of Experiments, Multi-output regression, Hyperparameter tuning
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Résumé The popular view is that governments should crack down on tax avoidance by multinational corporations, but in practice, lax anti-profit-shifting policies are common. Here, we analyze how controlling profit shifting influences fiscal competition. Equilibrium tax rates are determined by the elasticities of two components: retained profit and capital mobility. Anti-profit-shifting policies decrease the elasticity of the first, but increase the elasticity of the second. The impact of these policies on equilibrium tax rates is then ambiguous. We show that there are cases in which laxer policies increase equilibrium tax rates and countries’ well-being by favoring investments. We use estimates of different elasticities to show that our model can support lax enforcement.
Mots clés Capital mobility, International taxation, Profit shifting, Tax competition
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Résumé En France, l’assurance maladie obligatoire (AMO) couvre la majorité des dépenses de santé, le reste à charge étant plus ou moins pris en charge par l’assurance maladie complémentaire (AMC). Mais les assurés connaissent-ils vraiment leur contrat d’AMC ? Ce travail empirique explore des données administratives appariées à des données d’enquête renseignant des caractéristiques habituellement non observées (état de santé ou aversion au risque). Dans un premier temps, nous identifions les facteurs qui influencent la connaissance qu’ont les assurés de leur contrat, puis nous analysons l’écart entre les remboursements et les cotisations à l’aide de régressions quantiles. Paradoxalement, cet écart ne semble pas être creusé par la consommation de soins dits « de confort » mais plutôt par des soins hospitaliers. Une meilleure connaissance de son contrat semble être profitable .
Mots clés Health insurance, Information and knowledge, Quantile regression, Assurance santé, Information et connaissance, Régression quantile
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Résumé This paper investigates how affective forecasting errors (A.F.E.s), the difference between anticipated emotion and the emotion actually experienced, may induce changes in preferences on time, risk and occupation after combat. Building on psychological theories incorporating the role of emotion in decision-making, we designed a before-and-after-mission survey for Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2011. Our hypothesis of an effect from A.F.E.s is tested by controlling for other mechanisms that may also change preferences: immediate emotion, trauma effect – proxied by post-traumatic stress disorder (P.T.S.D.) – and changes in wealth and risk perception. At the aggregate level, results show stable preferences before and after mission. We find positive A.F.E.s for all three emotions studied (fear, anxiety and excitement), with anticipated emotions stronger than those actually experienced. We provide evidence that positive A.F.E.s regarding fear significantly increase risk tolerance and impatience, while positive A.F.E.s regarding excitement strengthen the will to stay in the military. Trauma has no impact on these preferences.
Mots clés Risk preferences, Time preferences, Affective forecasting errors, PTSD, Afghanistan, Combat
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Résumé This paper studies government spending multipliers in a panel of OECD countries. While recent literature has highlighted the differences in government consumption and investment effects, we extend this approach sectorally and report findings that suggest strong heterogeneities across sectors for government spending and output. Differences in price stickiness and sectors’ position in the production network are the main drivers of these heterogeneities.
Mots clés Sector-specific shocks, Sectoral heterogeneity, Government consumption, Government investment, Fiscal multiplier
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Résumé We experimentally investigate the impact of information disclosure on managing common harms that are caused jointly by a group of liable agents. Subjects interact in a public bad setting and must choose ex ante how much to contribute in order to reduce the probability of causing a common damage. If a damage occurs, subjects bear a part of the loss according to the liability-sharing rule in force. We consider two existing rules: a per capita rule and a proportional rule. Our aim is to analyze the relative impact of information disclosure under each rule. We show that information disclosure increases contributions only under a per capita rule. This result challenges the classical results regarding the positive effects of information disclosure, since we show that this impact may depend upon the legal context. We also show that while a proportional rule leads to higher contributions than a per capita one, the positive effect of disclosure on a per capita rule makes it as efficient as a proportional rule without information disclosure.
Mots clés Environmental Regulation, Information disclosure, Common harms, Multiple Tortfeasors, Liability Sharing Rules, Public Bads, Environmental Regulation
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Résumé This paper shows how ethnic identities may become more salient due to natural resources extraction. We combine individual data on the strength of ethnic—relative to national—identities with geo-localised information on the contours of ethnic homelands, and on the timing and location of mineral resources exploitation in 25 African countries, from 2005 to 2015. Our strategy takes advantage of several dimensions of exposure to resources exploitation: time, spatial proximity and ethnic proximity. We find that the strength of an ethnic group identity increases when mineral resource exploitation in that group’s historical homeland intensifies. We argue that this result is at least partly rooted in feelings of relative deprivation associated with the exploitation of the resources. We show that such exploitation has limited positive economic spillovers, especially for members of the indigenous ethnic group; and that the link between mineral resources and the salience of ethnic identities is reinforced among members of powerless ethnic groups and groups with strong baseline identity feelings or living in poorer areas, or areas with a history of conflict. Put together, these findings suggest a new dimension of the natural resource curse: the fragmentation of identities, between ethnic groups and nations.
Mots clés Identity, Ethnicity, Natural resources
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Résumé This paper analyses the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a dynamic, multi-country model with international production networks. The response of real gross domestic product to a fiscal spending shock can be decomposed into a direct effect, income effect and price effect. The direct effect depends only on input-output linkages, while the price effect is zero in the aggregate. We apply this decomposition to the Eurozone, and find that fiscal spillovers from Germany and the core Eurozone countries can be large, and within the range of empirical estimates. Without international production networks, spillovers would be significantly smaller. In an empirical application, using the decomposition, we find results strongly consistent with the model.
Mots clés Nominal Rigidities, Eurozone, Spillovers, Fiscal policy, Production Network
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Résumé Based on French firm-level data, we evaluate the contribution of the micro-level profit-shifting –through tax haven foreign direct investments– to the aggregate productivity slowdown measured in France. We show that firm measured productivity in France declines over the years following the establishment in a tax haven, with an average estimated drop by 3.5% in apparent labor productivity. To isolate the contribution of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) tax optimization to the decline in productivity, we then exploit the 2006 Cadbury-Schweppes decision of the European Court of Justice limiting the extent to which member States can counter European MNEs' tax planning strategies. We find that multinational groups benefiting from that loosening of the legal constraints do exhibit a lower labor productivity following that ruling. Finally, given these firms' weight, our results imply an annual loss of 5.7% in terms of the aggregate annual labor productivity growth.
Mots clés Tax havens, Profit-shifting FDI, Productivity slowdown, Productivity mismeasurement, Intangible capital
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Résumé In this paper, we evaluate the causal effects of climate policies on carbon emissions reduction. Specifically, we investigate the properties of the Granger causality test in the frequency domain, assuming that the dependent variables include a binary variable and a continuous variable (resp. treatment and outcome variables). Monte Carlo simulations confirm that: (i) this test is valid under this assumption; and (ii) it has more power than its time-domain counterpart. Then, using Sweden as a case study, we evaluate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol, the Swedish carbon tax, and the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on carbon emissions reduction over the period 1964-2021. Our empirical results indicate that only the carbon tax Granger causes carbon emissions reduction in the long run. Our methodological framework offers policymakers a useful toolbox for climate policy evaluation as well as new insights into the outcomes of international treaties and carbon pricing policies.
Mots clés Climate policy, Carbon pricing, Spectral analysis, Granger causality
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Résumé We address the question of the measurement of health achievement and inequality in the context of variables exhibiting an inverted-U relation with health and well-being. The chosen approach is to measure separately achievement and inequality in the health increasing range of the variable, from a lower survival bound a to an optimum value m, and in the health decreasing range from m to an upper survival bound b. Because in the health decreasing range, the equally distributed equivalent value associated with a distribution is decreasing in progressive transfers, the paper introduces appropriate relative and absolute achievement and inequality indices to be used for variables exhibiting a negative association with well-being. We then discuss questions pertaining to consistent measurement across health attainments and shortfalls, as well as the ordering of distributions exhibiting an inverted-U relation with well-being. An illustration of the methodology is provided using a group of five Arab countries.
Mots clés Anthropometrics, Health achievement and inequality, Survival thresholds, Arab countries
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Résumé Young citizens vote at relatively low rates, which contributes to political parties de-prioritizing youth preferences. We analyze the effects of low-cost online interventions in encouraging young Moroccans to cast an informed vote in the 2021 elections. These interventions aim to reduce participation costs by providing information about the registration process and by highlighting the election's stakes and the distance between respondents' preferences and party platforms. Contrary to preregistered expectations, the interventions did not increase average turnout, yet exploratory analysis shows that the interventions designed to increase benefits did increase the turnout intention of uncertain baseline voters. Moreover, information about parties' platforms increased support for the party closest to the respondents' preferences, leading to better-informed voting. Results are consistent with motivated reasoning, which is surprising in a context with weak party institutionalization.
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Résumé This paper empirically examines which factors have influenced numerical compliance with fiscal rules in Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 2000 to 2020. We use logistic regression models to associate three groups of specific factors with a greater or lesser probability of compliance with the rule: the macroeconomic and political environment of the countries and the design features of the enforced rules. We find that only changes in the macroeconomic and political context affect the probability of compliance with the enforced rules. In contrast, the institutional design of the fiscal rules does not seem to play an essential role in the compliance outcome. This result suggests that adjustments in this direction are not decisive for rule compliance.
Mots clés Compliance, Latin America, Fiscal rules
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Résumé In this paper, we investigate the determinants of equity shares purchased by Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). Based on the literature of cross-border acquisitions and entry mode choice theory, we shed light on the real drivers of these state-owned funds when they buy small or large stakes in cross-border target firms. Using an original dataset of SWF acquisitions over the period 2000–2015, a Two-Part Fractional Regression Model is estimated to account for both the fractional nature of the dependent variable as well as the separation between the decision to invest and that concerning the share of equity invested. We find that the decision to invest and the decision on the share of equity to be acquired are two distinct processes. We also find that SWFs take the investment decision in cross-border target firms by trying to reduce transaction costs and information asymmetry according to the cross-border acquisition theory, and also by taking the legal and institutional environment of the host country into consideration. However, the fact that they do not hesitate to take large shares or to acquire targeted firms that are considered to be strategic and located in politically unstable countries suggests that their motives may go beyond financial consideration.
Mots clés Sovereign Wealth Funds, Cross-border acquisitions, Entry mode choice
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Résumé Introduction: We estimated the health and economic impacts of chronic exposure to air pollution for the Swiss part of the Greater Geneva area from 2016 to 2018. Materials and methods: We extracted from fine-scale modelled concentration maps for two pollutant indicators, particulate matter PM 2.5 and nitrogen dioxide. Then, we performed a quantitative health impact assessment of the health burden attributable to anthropogenic-origin air pollution, and estimated the benefits of compliance with the federal Ordinance on Air Pollution Control (OAPC) limit values. Finally, we computed the economic impacts of these health effects. Results: Exposure to fine particles of anthropogenic origin was responsible for 7.5% of annual mortality (280 deaths or 5,900 life years lost), for 14 lung cancers and for 68 strokes annually in the Canton of Geneva. Compliance with the OAPC limit value of 10 µg/m 3 as an annual average would reduce annual mortality by 1.5% (62 deaths avoided or 1,300 life years gained). Exposure to anthropogenic-origin NO 2 was associated with 5.3% of annual deaths (approximately 200 deaths per year). The estimated total negative economic impacts of anthropogenic-origin fine particles were at least CHF 2017 1.3 billion per year, whereas compliance with the OAPC limit values would result in annual economic benefits of at least CHF 2017 290 million. Conclusion: We confirmed that air quality remains a health issue on which stakeholder mobilisation is vital. Action plans should tackle emissions from freight and personal mobility, heating, industry and agriculture, while seeking to improve knowledge on health risks from air pollution exposure.
Mots clés Switzerland, Economic assessment, Morbidity, Mortality, Quantitative health impact assessment
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Résumé Dans son dernier ouvrage intitulé Measuring Social Welfare, Matthew Adler propose un vaste panorama portant sur les méthodes d’évaluation du bien-être social et sur les débats auxquels le développement de ces méthodes a donné lieu en choix social. L’enjeu de l’ouvrage est double. Il est d’une part de fournir à la communauté des étudiant(e)s et des chercheur(e)s en sciences économiques et sociales mais aussi en sciences politiques un manuel en choix social à la fois abordable techniquement tout en étant exigeant et rigoureux. Il est d’autre part, de montrer la pertinence à la fois sur le plan théorique et sur le plan pratique du programme de recherche développé en choix social autour des fonctions de bien-être social. Par là-même, ainsi que l’avance Matthew Adler, l’ouvrage contribue de fait à combler un vide dans la littérature sur les fonctions de bien-être social développées depuis cinquante ans. Cette littérature étant particulièrement mathématisée, elle s’adresse, le plus souvent, à un public d’initiés. L’apport premier de l’ouvrage est de décloisonner le savoir issu de la théorie du choix social, le rendant accessible à un public d’étudiant(e)s et de chercheur(e)s s’interrogeant sur l’évaluation sociale. Pour ce faire, l’ouvrage est rédigé de sorte à permettre différents niveaux de lecture : en particulier, les développements portant sur les aspects les plus formels de l’analyse mathématique sont placés en annexe et, outre la bibliographie très complète placée en fin d’ouvrage, chaque chapitre comporte une bibliographie restreinte accessible au plus grand nombre…
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Résumé We investigate whether and how an individual giving decision is affected in risky environments in which the recipient's wealth is random. We demonstrate that, under risk neutrality, the donation of dictators with a purely ex post view of fairness should, in general, be affected by the riskiness of the recipient's payoff, while dictators with a purely ex ante view should not be. Furthermore, we observe that some influential inequality aversion preferences functions yield opposite predictions when we consider ex post view of fairness. Hence, we report on dictator games laboratory experiments in which the recipient's wealth is exposed to an actuarially neutral and additive background risk. Our experimental data show no statistically significant impact of the recipient's risk exposure on dictators' giving decisions. This result appears robust to both the experimental design (within subjects or between subjects) and the origin of the recipient's risk exposure (chosen by the recipient or imposed on the recipient). Although we cannot sharply validate or invalidate alternative fairness theories, the whole pattern of our experimental data can be simply explained by assuming ex ante view of fairness and risk neutrality.
Mots clés Laboratory experiments, Dictator games, Background risk
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Résumé We consider a nondurable good monopolist that collects data on its customers in order to profile them and subsequently practice price discrimination on returning customers. The monopolist’s price discrimination scheme is leaky in the sense that an endogenous fraction of consumers choose to incur a privacy cost to conceal their identity when they return in the following periods. We characterize the Markov perfect equilibrium of the game under two alternative customer profiling regimes: full information acquisition (FIA) and purchase history information (PHI). In both cases, we find that, contrary to what could be expected, the monopolist’s aggregate profit is not monotonically increasing in the level of the privacy cost, but a U-shaped function of it, leading to ambiguous profit effects: a reduction in privacy costs increases the fraction of customers who choose to be anonymous (detrimental profit effect), but it also softens the firm’s introductory price, reducing the pace at which prices targeted to new customers fall over time (positive profit effect). When comparing results under FIA and PHI, we find that market expansion is faster, and more customers conceal their identity under FIA than under PHI. Equilibrium profits are also higher in the FIA case. Although equilibrium profits are U-shaped functions of the privacy cost in both profiling regimes, they tend to be globally decreasing with the privacy cost under PHI and globally increasing under FIA.
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