Céline Poilly, Fabien Tripier, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 115., pp. 172–76, 01/2025
Résumé
This short paper provides U.S. state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive margins of labor is the primary margin of employment adjustment. State-level employment is more strongly impacted by trade policy uncertainty in goods-producing industries, and more particularly in the durable goods industry. States which are more specialized in goods industries, when they face higher uncertainty, tends to postpone hiring by more, which explains the drop in total employment.>
Mots clés
Uncertainty shocks, Tariffs, Labor Market