Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
A discrete model for bootstrap iterationJournal articleRussell Davidson, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 201, Issue 2, pp. 228-236, 2017

The bootstrap can be validated by considering the sequence of P values obtained by bootstrap iteration, rather than asymptotically. If this sequence converges to a random variable with the uniform U(0,1) distribution, the bootstrap is valid. Here, the model is made discrete and finite, characterised by a three-dimensional array of probabilities. This renders bootstrap iteration to any desired order feasible. A unit-root test for a process driven by a stationary MA(1) process is known to be unreliable when the MA(1) parameter is near −1. Iteration of the bootstrap P value to convergence achieves reliable inference unless the parameter value is very close to −1.

Advances in specification testingJournal articleRussell Davidson et Victoria Zinde-Walsh, Canadian Journal of Economics, Volume 50, Issue 5, pp. 1595-1631, 2017

Testing the specification of econometric models has come a long way from the t tests and F tests of the classical normal linear model. In this paper, we trace the broad outlines of the development of specification testing, along the way discussing the role of structural versus purely statistical models. Inferential procedures have had to advance in tandem with techniques of estimation, and so we discuss the generalized method of moments, non parametric inference, empirical likelihood and estimating functions. Mention is made of some recent literature, in particular, of weak instruments, non parametric identification and the bootstrap.

Can the HOS model explain changes in labor shares? A tale of trade and wage rigiditiesJournal articleBruno Decreuse et Paul Maarek, Economic Systems, Volume 41, Issue 4, pp. 472-491, 2017

This paper questions the ability of the standard HOS (Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson) model to explain changes in the labor shares (LS) of income in OECD countries. We use the Davis (1998) version of the HOS model with wage rigidity in a sub-group of countries. We show that trade openness with developing countries reduces LS in rigid wage countries and does not affect LS in free wage countries. This pattern is induced by factor reallocation towards capital-intensive sectors in rigid wage countries. Using the KLEMS dataset for 8 OECD countries over the period 1970–2005, we show that the weight of capital-intensive sectors substantially increased in continental European countries, while it did not change or even decreased in the US and the UK. Fixed effects regressions suggest that trade intensity with China explains between 50% (IV estimates) and 80% (OLS estimates) of the observed differential labor share change between Continental Europe and Anglo-Saxon countries.

La théorie Héréditaire et Relativiste de la demande de monnaie : anticipations et problème de non-invariance chez Maurice AllaisJournal articleRamzi Klabi, Œconomia. History, Methodology, Philosophy, Issue 7-4, pp. 545-594, 2017

Nous nous intéressons dans cet article à la théorie Héréditaire et Relativiste (HR) de la demande de monnaie. Cette théorie, proposée par Allais en 1965, est restée dans l’ombre notamment en raison de son cadre conceptuel incongru à l’approche dominante. Elle propose en effet une modélisation orientée vers le passé d’un comportement héréditaire à l’ère d’une macroéconomie révolutionnée par la notion des anticipations. Elle stipule que l’échelle du temps physique n’est pas pertinente pour analyser les phénomènes monétaires. Et elle s’appuie sur l’idée de la relativité du temps pour concevoir une échelle de temps psychologique sur laquelle elle fonde sa formulation de la demande de monnaie. Nous entendons dans cet article replacer cette théorie par rapport au courant dominant. Nous montrerons qu’elle croise l’évolution méthodologique de ce courant en des points cruciaux. Nous y soulignerons en effet une conception originale « d’anticipations autorégressives dynamiques ». Nous montrerons qu’elle rend compte, de par l’endogénéité de ces anticipations, d’un problème de non-invariance similaire à celui posé par les anticipations rationnelles et mis en évidence par Lucas (1976) dans sa fameuse critique. Nous montrerons qu’elle lui apporte une solution tout à fait originale.

Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax-benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International PerspectiveJournal articleOlivier Bargain, Tim Callan, Karina Doorley et Claire Keane, Fiscal Studies, Volume 38, Issue 4, pp. 559-585, 2017

In this paper, we examine the impact of the economic crisis and the policy reaction on inequality and relative poverty in four European countries: France, Germany, Ireland and the UK. The period examined, 2008–13, was one of great economic turmoil, yet it is unclear whether changes in inequality and poverty rates over this time period were mainly driven by changes in market income distributions or by tax‐benefit policy reforms. We disentangle these effects by producing counterfactual (‘no reform') scenarios using tax‐benefit microsimulation and representative household surveys for each country. For the first stage of the Great Recession, we find that the policy reaction contributed to stabilising or even decreasing inequality and relative poverty in the UK, France and, especially, Ireland. Market income changes nonetheless pushed up inequality and relative poverty in France. Relative poverty increased in Germany as a result of policy responses combined with market income changes. Subsequent policy reforms, in the later stage of the crisis, had markedly different cross‐country effects, decreasing overall poverty in France, increasing it in Ireland, and giving mixed effects for different subgroups in Germany and the UK.

Equality of opportunity, moral hazard and the timing of luckJournal articleArnaud Lefranc et Alain Trannoy, Social Choice and Welfare, Volume 49, Issue 3-4, pp. 469-497, 2017

Equality of opportunity is usually defined as a situation where the effect of circumstances on outcome is nullified (compensation principle) and effort is rewarded (reward principle). We propose a new version of the reward principle based on the idea that effort deserves reward for it is costly. We show that luck can be introduced in two ways in the definition of these principles, depending on whether the correlation between luck and circumstances should be nullified and whether the correlation between luck and effort should be rewarded. In this regard, the timing of luck with respect to effort decisions is crucial, as is exemplified by moral hazard where effort choice influences the lottery of future uncertain events.

Disentangling managerial incentives from a dynamic perspective: The role of stock grantsJournal articleAmal Hili, Didier Laussel et Ngo Van Long, Pacific Economic Review, Volume 22, Issue 5, pp. 743-771, 2017

We analyse the optimal contract between a risk†averse manager and the initial shareholders in a two†period model where the manager's investment effort, carried out in period 1, and his or her current effort, carried out in period 2, both impact the second†period profit, so that it may be difficult to disentangle the incentives for these two types of effort. We show that stock grants play different roles according to whether the signal of investment effort is less noisy, or noisier, than that of current effort. We determine simultaneously the optimal stock grants and the optimal restrictions on sales of shares.

L'État-providence. Défense et illustrationBookMathieu Lefebvre et Pierre Pestieau, 2017-12, 240 pages, Presses Universitaires de France, 2017

L’État-providence n’a jamais été autant décrié qu’aujourd’hui, alors qu’il n’a sans doute jamais été aussi nécessaire. Les critiques qu’il doit essuyer viennent de ceux qui veulent en réduire la voilure comme de ceux qui le trouvent incapable de remplir ses principales missions. Les multiples fractures sociales qui ont conduit une partie de la population à douter des politiques censées la secourir pour finir par basculer dans le vote populiste redonnent toute sa justification à un État-providence plus performant et soucieux de combler le fossé séparant une partie de la population socialement intégrée de celle qui compte les exclus. C’est dans cette perspective que se place cet ouvrage. Il présente d’abord un portrait social des pays européens en mettant l’accent sur la France. Il analyse la performance de leurs États-providence face à des obstacles qui ont pour noms « globalisation » et « individualisme ». Il aborde ensuite les principaux domaines où il peut et doit avoir une action : la santé, l’emploi, la retraite et la famille. Il conclut en proposant un certain nombre de recommandations concrètes.

Niveau économique des ménages, indicateurs de pauvretéBook chapterMârwan-al-Qays Bousmah et Bruno Ventelou, In: La situation démographique dans la zone de Niakhar, 1963-2014., Valérie Delaunay (Eds.), 2017-12, pp. 35-41, IRD, 2017

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The extra cost of comorbidity: multiple illnesses and the economic burden of non-communicable diseasesJournal articleSébastien Cortaredona et Bruno Ventelou, BMC Medicine, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp. 216, 2017

The literature offers competing estimates of disease costs, with each study having its own data and methods. In 2007, the Dutch Center for Public Health Forecasting of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment provided guidelines that can be used to set up cost-of-illness (COI) studies, emphasising that most COI analyses have trouble accounting for comorbidity in their cost estimations. When a patient has more than one chronic condition, the conditions may interact such that the patient’s healthcare costs are greater than the sum of the costs for the individual diseases. The main objective of this work was to estimate the costs of 10 non-communicable diseases when their co-occurrence is acknowledged and properly assessed.