Publications
Le marginalisme autrichien a pénétré en Ukraine dès la fin du xixe et le début du xxe siècle à travers la théorie de l’utilité développée par l’économiste et mathématicien Yevgen Slutsky. Sa Théorie de l’utilité marginale montre comment les idées autrichiennes majeures y furent reçues et reprises. Slutsky abordait l’économie en scientifique avec une réception critique de la théorie subjective de la valeur élaborée par Carl Menger. Slutsky développa son propre concept de valeur, qu’il présenta dans sa Critique du concept de valeur. Les auteurs se basent sur un matériau inédit conservé dans des archives à Kiev. Slutsky débattit les positions d’Eugen Böhm-Bawerk, il « objectiva » la fonction d’utilité et il souligna le rôle du comportement de consommation au sein du marché. Ses découvertes exercèrent une grande influence : les « équations de Slutsky », l’« effet Slutsky-Yule » et le « théorème de Slutsky » en témoignent.
This paper examines how voluntary contributions to a public good are affected by the contributors' heterogeneity in beliefs about the uncertain impact of their contributions. It assumes that contributors have Savagian preferences that are represented by a two-state-dependent expected utility function and different beliefs about the benefit that will result from the sum of their contributions. We establish general comparative statics results regarding the effect of specific changes in the distribution of beliefs on the (unique) Nash equilibrium provision of the public good, under certain conditions imposed on the preferences. We specifically show that the equilibrium public good provision is increasing with respect to both first- and second-order stochastic dominance changes in the distribution of beliefs. Hence, increasing the contributors' optimism about the uncertain benefit of their contributions increases aggregate public good provision, as does any homogenization of these beliefs around their mean.
OECD countries have experienced a large increase in top wage inequality. Atkinson (2008) attributes this phenomena to the superstar theory leading to a Pareto tail in the wage distribution with a low Pareto coefficient. Do we observe a similar phenomena for academic wages? We examine wage formation in a public US university using for each academic rank a hybrid mixture formed by a lognormal distribution for regular wages and a Pareto distribution for top wages, using a Bayesian approach. The presence of superstars wages would imply a higher dispersion in the Pareto tail than in the lognormal body. We concluded that academic wages are formed in a different way than other top wages. There is an effort to propose competitive wages to some young Assistant Professors. But when climbing up the wage ladder, we found a phenomenon of wage compression which is just the contrary of a superstar phenomenon.
In this paper, we develop a unified spatial model of turnout and voting behaviors in which citizens can identify with one or two parties. We show the existence of a conflicted voter's curse: If there is no position that reconciles the ideological views of both parties, it is always rational for citizens that identify with two parties to abstain even if they are a majority. In a two-candidate electoral competition, the conflicted voter's curse implies that candidates converge to the center of the political domain if and only if conflicted voters are pivotal and the parties have shared ideological views. Otherwise, we show that candidates may converge or diverge depending upon the degree of party polarization and whether candidates care about ideology or not. Our analysis suggests that the behavior of conflicted voters may be relevant for electoral outcomes and public choice.
Background:
Compared with the number of studies performed in the United States, few studies have been conducted on the link between health insurance and healthcare consumption in Europe, likely because most European countries have compulsory national health insurance (NHI) or a national health service (NHS). Recently, a major French private insurer, offering voluntary complementary coverage in addition to the compulsory NHI, replaced its single standard package with a range of offers from basic coverage (BC) to extended coverage (EC), providing a quasi-natural experiment to test theoretical assumptions about consumption patterns.
Methods:
Reimbursement claim data from 85,541 insurees were analysed from 2009 to 2018. Insurees who opted for EC were matched to those still covered by BC with similar characteristics. Difference-in-differences (DiD) models were used to compare both the monetary value and physical quantities of healthcare consumption before and after the change in coverage.
Results:
As expected, the DiD models revealed a strongly significant, though transitory (mainly during the first year), increase after the change in coverage for EC insurees, particularly for costly care such as dental prostheses and spectacles. Surprisingly, consumption seemed to precede the change in coverage, suggesting that one possible determinant of opting for more coverage may be previous unplanned expenses.
Conclusion:
Both catching-up behaviour and moral hazard are likely to play a role in the observed increase in healthcare consumption.
Voici un cinquième article publié dans le cadre de notre forum « Covid-19 : causes, impacts et stratégies », qui vise à ouvrir les colonnes de Futuribles à divers experts pour évoquer, encore « à chaud », différents aspects, d’ordre économique, social, sanitaire, alimentaire, écologique…, de la crise du Covid-19. Gilbert Cette y montre qu’en dépit des difficultés inhérentes à cette crise sanitaire et aux conséquences économiques qui vont s’ensuivre, il existe aussi une opportunité à saisir dans le domaine du travail. En effet, le confinement et la limitation des déplacements ont permis une large extension du télétravail, qui pourrait perdurer par la suite et permettre, à terme, de relancer la productivité économique, qui semblait en phase d’épuisement depuis plusieurs décennies. S.D.
L'objectif du chantier de la restructuration des branches est de remplacer un paysage conventionnel morcelé par des branches professionnelles plus cohérentes. Ce processus soulève des difficultés. La réponse à ces difficultés peut résider dans l'articulation renouvelée du dialogue social dans les branches et les entreprises. Un moratoire de quelques années peut être utile à un stade de la restructuration. Explications et analyse de Jacques Barthélémy, avocat et Ancien professeur associé à la faculté de droit de Montpellier, Gilbert Cette, Banque de France et Aix-Marseille University, AMSE et Gepy Koudadje, avocate au Cabinet Flichy Grangé Avocats et chargée d'enseignement université Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne.
We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nationwide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the decline is significant for conflicts involving political militias, protesters and civilians. We also observe a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the effect of restriction policies on conflict: no conflict reduction is observed in low income countries and in societies more fractionalized along ethnic or religious lines. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.
Tests are crucial to know about the number of people who have fallen ill with COVID-19 and to understand in real-time whether the dynamics of the pandemic is accelerating or decelerating. But tests are a scarce resource in many countries. The key but still open question is thus how to allocate tests across sub-national levels. We provide a data-driven and operational criterion to allocate tests efficiently across regions or provinces, with the view to maximize detection of people who have been infected. We apply our criterion to Italian regions and compute the shares of tests that should go to each region, which are shown to differ significantly from the actual distribution.Mickael Degoule
This paper investigates the persistent impact of financial crises on economic growth in different regimes of globalization. Relying on a nonlinear dynamic panel representation, this paper explains why the effects of globalization on growth weave into a tale of two opposite narratives. On average, a country experiences higher growth, the more open and integrated it is into the world. However, countries can also experience persistently lower medium-term output growth after a financial crisis, once globalization reaches a certain threshold. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low-income countries.
