Publications

La plupart des informations présentées ci-dessous ont été récupérées via RePEc avec l'aimable autorisation de Christian Zimmermann
Banking stability, natural disasters, and state fragility: Panel VAR evidence from developing countriesJournal articlePedro H. Albuquerque et Wassim Rajhi, Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 50, Issue C, pp. 430-443, 2019

Panel VAR methodology is used in this study to empirically evaluate the effects of natural disasters and state fragility on economic and financial dimensions in developing countries such as GDP per capita, banking and financial system deposits, banks’ Z-scores, and non-performing loans. Results based on three panels of up to 66 countries and 17 years of annual data indicate that natural disasters and state fragility may cause significant economic and financial disruption in low-income and middle-income countries. Shocks from natural disasters seem to be temporary and detrimental only to non-performing loans, while shocks from state fragility appear to be permanent and to create detrimental economic and financial feedback loops.

Demystifying China’s Stock Market: The Hidden Logic behind the PuzzlesBookEric Girardin et Zhenya Liu, Springer Books, 2019-12, Number 978-3-030-17123-0, XXI,125 pages, Springer International Publishing, 2019

Mainstream research has rationalized China’s stock market on the basis of paradigms such as the institutional approach, the efficient market hypothesis, and corporate valuation principles. The deviations from such paradigms have been analyzed as puzzles of China’s stock market. Girardin and Liu explore to what extent, in the perspective of Chinese cultural and historical characteristics, far from being puzzles, these 'deviations’ are rather the symptoms of a consistent strategy for the design, development and regulation of a government-dominated financial system. This book will help investors, observers and researchers understand the hidden logic of the design and functioning of China’s modern stock market, taking a political economy view.

The positive effect of workplace accommodations on employment five years after a cancer diagnosisJournal articleCaroline Alleaume, Alain Paraponaris, Marc Karim Bendiane, Patrick Peretti-Watel et Anne-Deborah Bouhnik, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 29, Issue Supplement_4, 2019

Background:
Each year, almost 400,000 new individuals are diagnosed with cancer in France and nearly half of them are in the working age. The disease was found to have a negative impact on professional life, especially for the most vulnerable cancer survivors. Literature reviews have pointed out the lack of studies focusing on the evaluation of interventions. In France, workstation layouts are recommended by the French law, but not mandatory to facilitate return to work. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of having a workstation layout after a cancer diagnosis on maintenance in employment five years after diagnosis.

Methods:
We used the French VICAN survey carried out in 2015/2016 on living conditions five years after a cancer diagnosis. Using propensity score matching, we matched two subsamples (with and without workstation layout) to investigate the effect of workstation layout taking into account the characteristics associated with the access to these arrangements.

Results:
Among the 1,514 individuals aged between 18 and 54 at diagnosis and employed in a salaried job at this time, three in five (61.2%) had a workstation layout within the five years following the diagnosis: 35.5% had a position type layout, 41.5% had a schedule layout, and 49.2% had a working time layout. Among those who had a workstation layout, 89.7% were still in employment five years after diagnosis against only 77.8% of those who did not so (p.value<0,001). After matching, having a workstation layout increased maintenance in employment from 77.8% to 95.0% (Average workstation layout effect on the treated of 0.172, 95% CI = [0.114; 0.229]).

Conclusions:
Having a workstation layout after a cancer diagnosis strongly increases maintenance in employment of five years cancer survivors. More research is needed to better understand the differences in access to these arrangements and the related
selection effect.

Key messages:
Workstation layout increases maintenance in employment of survivors five years after a cancer diagnosis. Therefore, it should be used more systematically to facilitate work with a chronic disease. Having a workstation layout may constitute a disadvantageous selection bias for more vulnerable workers. It can also lead to discrimination feelings.

An analytical framework for retailer price and advertising decisions for products with temperature-sensitive demandJournal articleRégis Chenavaz, Octavio Escobar et Xavier Rousset, Applied Economics, Volume 51, Issue 52, pp. 5683-5693, 2019

The demand for weather-sensitive products, such as beverages, ice creams, or chocolate varies with changes in temperature. Yet, retailers lack a framework to adapt the marketing mix elements, such as price and advertising, in line with such changes. We provide a theoretical framework to fill this gap by developing an analytical model to derive the optimal marketing mix when product demand depends on temperature. The model prescribes how price and advertising for different demand characteristics should be set following a temperature change. Integrating the temperature element in the marketing mix offers an original profit-enhancing strategy.

Growth and agglomeration in the heterogeneous space: a generalized AK approachJournal articleRaouf Boucekkine, Giorgio Fabbri, Salvatore Federico et Fausto Gozzi, Journal of Economic Geography, Volume 19, Issue 6, pp. 1287-1318, 2019

We provide an optimal growth spatio-temporal setting with capital accumulation and diffusion across space to study the link between economic growth triggered by capital spatio-temporal dynamics and agglomeration across space. The technology is AK, K being broad capital. The social welfare function is Benthamite. In sharp contrast to the related literature, which considers homogeneous space, we derive optimal location outcomes for any given space distributions for technology and population. Both the transitional spatio-temporal dynamics and the asymptotic spatial distributions are computed in closed form. Concerning the latter, we find, among other results, that: (i) due to inequality aversion, the consumption per capital distribution is much flatter than the distribution of capital per capita; (ii) endogenous spillovers inherent in capital spatio-temporal dynamics occur as capital distribution is much less concentrated than the (pre-specified) technological distribution; (iii) the distance to the center (or to the core) is an essential determinant of the shapes of the asymptotic distributions, that is relative location matters.

Grands témoins (regards croisés)Journal articleDominique Libault, Jacques Barthelemy et Gilbert Cette, Regards, Volume N° 55, Issue 1, pp. 13-25, 2019

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Predicting musculoskeletal disorders risk using tree-based ensemble methodsJournal articleAlain Paraponaris, A. Ba, Ewen Gallic, Q. Liance et Pierre Michel, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 29, Issue Supplement_4, 2019

Background:
Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) can cause short-term disorders and permanent disabilities which may all result in serious limitations in ac

Group targeting under networked synergiesJournal articleMohamed Belhaj et Frédéric Deroian, Games and Economic Behavior, Volume 118, Issue C, pp. 29-46, 2019

A principal targets agents organized in a network of local complementarities, in order to increase the sum of agents' effort. We consider bilateral public contracts à la Segal (1999). The paper shows that the synergies between contracting and non-contracting agents deeply impact optimal contracts: they can lead the principal to contract with a subset of the agents, and to refrain from contracting with central agents.

Prospective study on chronic diseases and healthcare costs for the south of France region, 2016-2028Journal articleBérengère Davin, Sébastien Cortaredona, Valérie Guagliardo, Stève Nauleau, Bruno Ventelou et Pierre Verger, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 29, Issue Supplement_4, 2019

Background:
In France, Health Regional Agencies (HRA) have to elaborate a Public Health Plan for the 5 coming years. For estimating future population health needs and associated costs to adapt the health services on the regional territory, the HRA in southeastern France requested a prospective analysis, based on demographic and epidemiologic scenarios about major chronic diseases, to evaluate future trends.

Methods:
Six chronic diseases were selected: diabetes (1 or 2), cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancers, neurological diseases and dementia. We used medico-administrative data from the National health insurance fund, and adapted algorithms to identify people with these diseases. We calculated prevalence rates according to gender and age and used two alternative scenarios (a constant one, and a trend-based one) to estimate the number of people with chronic diseases in 2023 and 2028, starting in 2016. We also estimated future healthcare costs according a constant and a trend-based scenario.

Results:
The algorithms detect reasonable rates of disease compared to official rates available for 2016. Due to demographic (ageing) and/or epidemiologic trends, the number of people with chronic diseases will highly increase during the next ten years in the South of France region. For instance, between 2016 and 2028, there will be from 15% to 20% more people with diabetes. Associated costs will also be higher (+33% between 2016 and 2028), especially those granted to nursing care (+40%).

Conclusions:
Burden of diseases and health expenditures are going to increase in the future. Projections are needed to help policymakers anticipating the required health services adaptation. Medico-administrative database are an invaluable source of data to do so. The next step of this project will consist in estimating those trends for smaller geographical areas.

Popper à Vienne. L’éducatrice et son témoinBook chapterGilles Campagnolo, In: « Versions françaises », 2019-11, pp. 221-302, Rue d'Ulm, 2019