Aisha Salih*, Julian Marcoux**

*How do climate conditions shape religiosity and religious participation? We investigate how religious participation and religious community organisation respond both to weather shocks and long-term climate trends. We match individual-level data from the Nigeria General Household Survey panel spanning 10 years with the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and construct a detailed agricultural season using granular rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS).

**This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, suited for disciplining subnational and international data, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Looking at sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is used to quantify counterfactual policy interventions that aim at promoting development in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive.