Grants

Dates

January 01st 2019 to January 01st 2023

Résumé (anglais uniquement)
Funder

ADEME

Contact

Frederic Rychen (frederic.rychen@univ-amu.fr)

Dates

August 28th 2018 to August 27th 2022

Résumé

Il est aujourd’hui démontré que l’environnement impacte la santé des populations (Cohen et al. 2005). La pollution atmosphérique figure parmi les déterminants environnementaux de la santé les plus documentés dans la littérature épidémiologique, du fait de l’ampleur et de la diversité des effets sanitaires qui lui sont attribués (Bell and Ebisu 2012) et des coûts associés pour la société (Commission d’enquête du Sénat sur le coût économique et financier de la pollution de l’air, 2015). Concernant les effets sanitaires en lien avec la pollution atmosphérique, il est possible de distinguer les effets à court terme (ex. exacerbations d’asthme, infarctus du myocarde…) des effets à long terme (ex. cancer des poumons, diminution de l’espérance de vie…). Les concentrations journalières de polluants atmosphériques auxquelles les populations sont exposées varient de manière importante dans le temps. Notamment, lorsque les niveaux d’émissions sont particulièrement élevés, apparaissent les épisodes ou pics de pollution. Ces jours sont définis en fonction du dépassement d’un certain seuil de concentration d’un ou plusieurs polluants atmosphériques (ex. particules fines PM2.5, Dioxyde d’Azote NO2, Ozone O3 …). De tels épisodes surviennent en particulier lors de conditions météorologiques particulières, notamment durant des vagues de froid en hiver ou des canicules durant l’été du fait de phénomènes de couches d'inversion thermique par exemple (Whiteman et al. 2014). Ces jours-là correspondent ainsi à des situations extrêmes en termes d’exposition à la pollution atmosphérique, toutefois peu d’études ont ciblé spécifiquement ces périodes de pics pour savoir si elles avaient un impact particulier et la littérature épidémiologique suggère que la relation dose-réponse entre la majorité des polluants atmosphériques en milieu urbain et les effets sanitaires associés suit une relation linéaire ou log-linéaire (Dominici et al. 2002). Cela impliquerait qu’il n’existe pas d’exposition à la pollution atmosphérique qui ne soit pas associée à une réponse sanitaire donnée. Il est ainsi important d’étudier si les jours définis comme épisodes de pollution sont associés à des effets sanitaires spécifiques. Ce projet, vise dans un premier temps (axe 1) à répondre à cette question : existe-t-il une raison, au sens épidémiologique, de considérer les épisodes de pollution comme des évènements particuliers ? De plus, dans l’hypothèse où il n’existe pas de particularité épidémiologique, en plus de ne concerner que très peu de jours dans l’année (par définition), ce type d’épisodes ne contribue que marginalement aux effets sanitaires à long terme. 
En outre, il s’avère qu’une partie importante des actions mises en place par les pouvoirs publics pour lutter contre la pollution atmosphérique et ses effets est focalisée sur ces épisodes. Ces actions répondent à la sensibilité de l’opinion publique à cette problématique, exacerbée lors d’épisodes de pollution. Malgré la mise en place de ces nombreuses interventions, les niveaux de pollution atmosphérique observés et leurs effets sanitaires continuent d’être élevés en France, en particulier dans les milieux urbains, dont l’agglomération parisienne. De nombreuses interventions y ont été mises en place au cours des dernières années afin de réduire les niveaux de concentration des différents polluants atmosphériques. Ces interventions ont porté essentiellement sur une réduction des émissions liées au trafic automobile qui constitue la source principale des concentrations de polluants atmosphériques en région parisienne (Beelen et al. 2013; Pascal et al. 2016). Celles mises en place depuis 2007 (pour les particules), déclenchées lorsque certains niveaux de pollution sont dépassés, incluent la réduction de vitesse sur le périphérique, la mise en place de la circulation alternée ou la gratuité des transports publics par exemple. Bien que ces interventions bénéficient d’une mobilisation politique, économique et citoyenne très importante, et malgré leur mise en place depuis 10 ans, il n’existe aucune information sur leur efficacité en matière de réduction des concentrations de polluants et des effets sanitaires associés. Ce projet vise donc également (axe 2) à évaluer si les mesures de lutte contre les pics de pollution sont efficaces. Pour cela, nous proposons une approche méthodologique innovante, fondée sur des expérimentations naturelles, qui permettent de reproduire les conditions d’un essai contrôlé randomisé afin d’évaluer les effets causaux associés à la mise en place de ces interventions. De plus, nous proposons de mener une évaluation économique des bénéfices potentiels associés à ces mesures.  
En parallèle, d’autres interventions de modification urbaine existent pour réduire les émissions liées au trafic comme par exemple l'attribution de certaines voies à des utilisations spécifiques (bus, taxi, vélos…) ou des projets de piétonisations. Les bénéfices liés à une réduction durable des niveaux de pollution atmosphérique sont considérables. Par exemple, si la valeur seuil de PM2,5 recommandée par l’OMS pour protéger la santé (10 µg/m3) était atteinte, alors certaines études estiment que 17 000 décès seraient évités par an en France, dont près de 6 000 uniquement en Ile-de-France (Pascal et al. 2016). Il est important de préciser qu’à notre connaissance, il n’existe pas de recensement systématique de ces interventions de modification urbaine durables menées par les communes et visant à réduire les émissions liées au trafic automobile, une lacune qu’il conviendrait de combler en mettant à disposition de tous les acteurs locaux une base de données les recensant. Ce projet vise ainsi (axe 3) à combler cette lacune en menant un recensement de ces mesures visant à réduire la pollution atmosphérique liée au trafic à moyen et long termes, en partant des travaux existants. De plus nous proposons en prenant comme exemple l’implantation de la Zone de Circulation Restreinte (ZCR) à Paris, de quantifier, par simulation, les bénéfices potentiels que cette intervention aurait sur la santé des populations, en comparaison aux interventions focalisées sur des épisodes de pollution. 
En somme, ce projet vise à évaluer la pertinence, que ce soit d’un point de vue épidémiologique ou des politiques publiques, de concentrer les efforts de l’action publique sur les épisodes de pollution plutôt que sur des interventions plus durables. Dans cette perspective, nous faisons et testons l’hypothèse que les effets de ces dernières sont substantiellement plus importants pour la santé publique.

Funder

PRIMEQUAL

Contact

Olivier Chanel (olivier.chanel[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

January 01st 2021 to December 31st 2025

Résumé

Les institutions contribuent à la stabilité économique et sociale. Par conséquent, leur remise en cause est souvent à l'origine d'un accroissement notable de l'incertitude économique. L'un des exemples les récents est le Brexit: voté en juin 2016 et toujours en cours de négociations 3 ans après. Cette période de confusion pèse sur les décisions des agents et est à l'origine de fragilités économiques.

Partant de ce constat, ce projet s'intéresse au comportement des entreprises et des gouvernements lorsqu'ils évoluent dans un environnement incertain. Son objectif est d'évaluer la manière dont ces agents réagissent à l'incertitude et dans quelle mesure leurs décisions peuvent elles-mêmes être source d'incertitude. 

Ce projet propose d'améliorer la compréhension: (1) du comportement des entreprises en univers incertain à travers leurs décisions d'emploi et d'investissement, (2) du lien entre les décisions des entreprises et l'incertitude engendrée par politiques gouvernementales.

Summary

Institutions contribute to social and economic stability. Therefore, increasing institutional weaknesses may be a source of deep economic uncertainty. One striking example is the Brexit: the referendum took place in 2016 and negotiations are still ongoing 3 years after. This period of doubtless alters agents' decisions and might generate economic fragilities. 

Based on this fact, this project focuses on firms' and governments' behavior in an uncertain environment. It seeks to assess how those agents react to uncertainty and whether their decisions can by themselves be a source of uncertainty. 

This project proposes to provide a better understanding of (1) firms' labor and investment decisions when they face uncertainty, (2) the link between firms' behavior and economic policy uncertainty.

Keywords

Incertitude macroéconomique, données micro, décisions de firmes

Keywords

Macroeconomics; monetary economics; economic growth

Funder

ANR

Contact

Céline Poilly (celine.poilly@univ-amu.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2017 to March 31st 2022

Résumé

Le logement constitue un objectif fondamental de politique publique en France et l'effort de la Nation en termes de transferts liés aux politiques du logement en 2014 dépasse 40 milliards d'euros. Ces politiques comprennent par exemple les allocations logement, les taxes foncières et d’habitation et les subventions à la construction mais s'étendent aussi au logement social et au contrôle des loyers. La redistribution et les défaillances du marché, par exemple en raison d’externalités, constituent la justification économique de ces politiques publiques.En France, il existe un sous-investissement important dans les recherches en économie du logement par rapport à l'économie du travail par exemple. Les évaluations restent limitées à des résultats sur les impacts de court terme qui utilisent des quasi-expériences naturelles. Les impacts à moyen ou long terme en termes d'efficacité ou de redistribution restent peu étudiés. Un exemple en est fourni par les allocations logement pour lesquelles nous avons des études de très bonne qualité sur les effets à court terme alors qu’aucune analyse en équilibre général ne nous indique comment les prix reflètent l'existence de ces allocations.C'est pourquoi l’objectif scientifique premier de notre projet est la meilleure compréhension de l'impact à long terme des politiques du logement sur les inégalités de logement en France et dans d’autres pays. La tâche centrale de notre projet de recherche est de construire un modèle structurel dynamique des décisions de logement des ménages au cours du cycle de vie et de calibrer ce modèle à l'aide de données observationnelles françaises. Il n'existe aucun modèle empirique pour la France alors que de tels modèles ont été construits pour les États-Unis, certes récemment. Ce modèle de base servira à évaluer les répercussions à long terme des politiques du logement, comme les allocations logement, les prêts à taux zéro pour les primo-accédants etc. En particulier, cela permettra d’estimer l'ordre de grandeur de la réduction des inégalités de logement obtenue par le moyen de ces politiques publiques. Deuxièmement, la validation empirique d'un tel modèle nécessite d'avoir des évaluations descriptives de grande qualité des inégalités de logement et des évaluations des effets des politiques publiques au cours des dernières années au niveau national et dans d’autres pays, afin de les comparer aux effets obtenus dans les modèles macroéconomiques. C'est la deuxième tâche de ce projet de recherche de mener ces travaux empiriques innovants.Le modèle de référence sera  enrichi dans des directions complémentaires. Une dimension clé est l'offre de logement et plus précisément la construction de nouveaux bâtiments. Nous visons aussi à analyser l'effet des subventions publiques, telles que les incitations fiscales, sur le nombre d'unités nouvellement construites et leur taille. Un autre sous-projet cherchera à utiliser des données de panel microéconomiques et des méthodes économétriques nouvelles pour estimer de manière plus robuste et précise, les paramètres de préférences des ménages. Enfin, le logement social et le contrôle des loyers sont d’autres éléments clés des politiques de logement en France. Un sous-projet met l'accent sur l'économie politique du logement social modélisée comme un jeu de vote entre des communes où les propriétaires et les locataires ont des préférences radicalement différentes. Un second sous-projet en économie géographique traite de la question du gradient des prix des logements et des loyers à l’intérieur des villes. Il utilisera un ensemble de données sur les prix des logements et les loyers qui seront collectés par l'équipe sur Internet. L'analyse empirique de ces données améliorera notre compréhension du chômage urbain et la façon dont les déplacements affectent négativement l'emploi dans les villes.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Alain Trannoy (alain.trannoy[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

February 01st 2022 to January 31st 2026

Résumé

Les inégalités économiques augmentent et vont s’aggraver avec la crise du Covid19 dans la zone euro. Nous supposons que la fragmentation financière et bancaire crée des opportunités de financement et de revenus différentes entre les pays, les ménages et les entreprises, et donc contribue à cette dynamique. Notre objectif est d'évaluer les effets redistributifs des secteurs bancaires et financiers face à la dispersion des revenus et des richesses dans la zone euro. Nous considèrerons d’abord l’impact de l’intermédiation bancaire sur les inégalités, via les distorsions dans l’accès au crédit qu’induit la fragmentation. Nous nous interrogeons alors sur la stratégie optimale de la BCE permettant une croissance plus inclusive. Nous étudions ensuite les principaux déterminants d'un cercle vertueux entre les financements de marchés et la réduction des inégalités. Nous souhaitons montrer qu’une intégration financière et bancaire régionale complète peut contribuer à une Europe plus juste.

Summary

Economic inequalities rise and are accentuated by the Covid19 crisis in the Eurozone. We assume that financial and banking fragmentation implies different financing and income opportunities between countries, households and firms and thus fuels this dynamic. Our purpose is to assess the redistributive effects of financial markets and the banking sector considering income and wealth dispersion in the Eurozone. We first focus on the impact of banking intermediation on inequalities, via the distortions in the access to credit that the fragmentation induces. We therefore question the optimal ECB strategy for a more inclusive growth. We then study the main determinants of a virtuous circle between market financing and the reduction of inequalities. Our aim is to show that full regional financial and banking integration can contribute to a fairer Europe.

Keywords

fragmentation financière, dispersion des revenus, union monétaire

Keywords

financial fragmentation, income dispersion, monetary union

Funder

ANR

Contact

Céline GIMET (celine.gimet[at]sciencespo-aix.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2018 to March 31st 2023

Summary

In “Why are there still so many jobs?” David Autor maintains that economists tend to focus on technological substitutabilities rather than complementarities. For example, ATM machines have been argued to substitute for bank tellers thus destroying such middle-skill jobs. Yet, ATM machines also decreased the cost of managing a bank branch and therefore the number of branches rose, with consequences for the employment of bank tellers that could now focus on other customer-oriented services. Such complementarities appear in many aspects of economic activity and yet their implications have until now been under-studied. The aim of this project is to consider the impact of job complementarities in employment on various economic outcomes. The degree of complementarity between different categories of workers is a key dimension determining labour market outcomes. Moreover, these complementarities evolve over time. In a predominantly manufacturing economy, the key question was the interaction between capital and labour, but the move to a service economy has changed this and over the past 40 years a growing complementarity across different groups of workers has appeared. It is hence important to understand who works with whom (at the level of the firm, the city or the region) if we want to explain the labour market performance of different groups, notably of minorities.   Complementarities can arise at many levels, but we intend to focus on three features. The first concerns different skill groups. Complementarities may exist at the level of the firm since low-skill workers provide business services that increase the productivity of the skilled, or of the city as the personal service sector is low-skill intensive and hence these workers provide the amenities that attract the most productive individuals to urban centers. A second dimension of complementarity relates to the geographical origin of individuals. The small effect of immigration on local wages found in empirical studies can best be explained by the fact that the type of skills supplied by immigrants is a complement to the native skills, yet this hypothesis has not been fully tested on the data, particularly for middle- and low-income countries. Lastly, it is also possible to think of complementarities arising at the level of the household. Domestic services are also provided by those at the bottom of the skill distribution raising the question of whether the expansion of this sector has been a factor in the increase in high-skilled female labour force participation.  Our project will consider these different sources of complementarities to deepen our understanding of how they shape wage dispersion across different groups and will hence contribute to explaining the causes and consequences of inequality. A first research axis will allow us to understand how skill polarization affects labour market outcomes. Second, we will examine the interplay between migrants and natives attempting to assess how the former affect labour market outcomes of non-migrant co-workers. We will then turn to complementarities across skill groups within cities, while a fourth area of work will address complementarities within households. The project will have a major empirical component, but also make theoretical contributions, and will make extensive use of existing micro-datasets like the DADS for France, the BHPS of the UK, or the Chinese mini-Census. The analyses will allow us to assess how changing complementarities in production affect income gaps across skill groups, the relative position of migrants, gender inequality, and social mobility.   Our project fits into Défi 8: Sociétés innovantes, intégrantes et adaptatives, Axe 2 : Inégalités, discriminations, integration, radicalisation, and Axe 3: Mutations du travail et de l’emploi of the call for projects.

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

In “Why are there still so many jobs?” David Autor maintains that economists tend to focus on technological substitutabilities rather than complementarities. For example, ATM machines have been argued to substitute for bank tellers thus destroying such middle-skill jobs. Yet, ATM machines also decreased the cost of managing a bank branch and therefore the number of branches rose, with consequences for the employment of bank tellers that could now focus on other customer-oriented services. Such complementarities appear in many aspects of economic activity and yet their implications have until now been under-studied. The aim of this project is to consider the impact of job complementarities in employment on various economic outcomes. The degree of complementarity between different categories of workers is a key dimension determining labour market outcomes. Moreover, these complementarities evolve over time. In a predominantly manufacturing economy, the key question was the interaction between capital and labour, but the move to a service economy has changed this and over the past 40 years a growing complementarity across different groups of workers has appeared. It is hence important to understand who works with whom (at the level of the firm, the city or the region) if we want to explain the labour market performance of different groups, notably of minorities.   Complementarities can arise at many levels, but we intend to focus on three features. The first concerns different skill groups. Complementarities may exist at the level of the firm since low-skill workers provide business services that increase the productivity of the skilled, or of the city as the personal service sector is low-skill intensive and hence these workers provide the amenities that attract the most productive individuals to urban centers. A second dimension of complementarity relates to the geographical origin of individuals. The small effect of immigration on local wages found in empirical studies can best be explained by the fact that the type of skills supplied by immigrants is a complement to the native skills, yet this hypothesis has not been fully tested on the data, particularly for middle- and low-income countries. Lastly, it is also possible to think of complementarities arising at the level of the household. Domestic services are also provided by those at the bottom of the skill distribution raising the question of whether the expansion of this sector has been a factor in the increase in high-skilled female labour force participation.  Our project will consider these different sources of complementarities to deepen our understanding of how they shape wage dispersion across different groups and will hence contribute to explaining the causes and consequences of inequality. A first research axis will allow us to understand how skill polarization affects labour market outcomes. Second, we will examine the interplay between migrants and natives attempting to assess how the former affect labour market outcomes of non-migrant co-workers. We will then turn to complementarities across skill groups within cities, while a fourth area of work will address complementarities within households. The project will have a major empirical component, but also make theoretical contributions, and will make extensive use of existing micro-datasets like the DADS for France, the BHPS of the UK, or the Chinese mini-Census. The analyses will allow us to assess how changing complementarities in production affect income gaps across skill groups, the relative position of migrants, gender inequality, and social mobility.   Our project fits into Défi 8: Sociétés innovantes, intégrantes et adaptatives, Axe 2 : Inégalités, discriminations, integration, radicalisation, and Axe 3: Mutations du travail et de l’emploi of the call for projects.

Keywords

inégalité, discrimination, migration, polarisation, genre, norme sociales

Funder

ANR

Contact

Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa (cecilia.garcia-penalosa[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

March 01st 2021 to November 30th 2021

Résumé

Ce projet de recherche vise à mieux comprendre les conséquences du choc majeur, profondément incertain et affectant l'ensemble de la société que représente la pandémie de Covid-19 en cours, sur les étudiants universitaires qui, par définition, sont aux portes de leur vie professionnelle et ont besoin de ressources cognitives importantes pour tirer le meilleur parti de leur formation universitaire. Nous examinons la question suivante: est-ce que l'anxiété générée par la pandémie de Covid-19 affecte les capacités d'apprentissage et de prise de décision des étudiants et, si oui, à quelle hauteur et par quels canaux? Nous testons spécifiquement l’impact des conséquences négatives sur le marché du travail et les conséquences sociales de la crise de la Covid-19 sur les capacités cognitives des étudiants, leur confiance et leur locus de contrôle, leurs attentes, leurs préférences en matière de risque et leur santé mentale. Nous émettons l’hypothèse que l’anxiété et l’incertitude liées à la pandémie pourraient imposer une charge mentale supplémentaires et relativement lourdes pour les étudiants, mettant ainsi à l'épreuve les fonctions cognitives et altérant leur capacité de délibération. Les étudiants peuvent dépenser davantage de leur "disponibilité mentale" disponible (Mullainathan et Shafir, 2013) à s'inquiéter de leur avenir, ce qui pourrait entraîner une baisse des performances. Afin de découvrir des mécanismes et de permettre des recommandations plus précises sur les politiques de soutien aux étudiants, la conception de notre étude permettra de quantifier l'importance relative des inquiétudes concernant les futures opportunités sur le marché du travail et la dégradation de la vie sociale et des réseaux de pairs, de tester le rôle de la structure concurrentielle du système de rémunération, et d'effectuer une variété d'analyses d'hétérogénéité pour identifier les groupes particulièrement vulnérables tels que les femmes, les étudiants ayant un faible niveau économique et les étudiants sujets à la dépression. 
Dans une expérience en ligne avec 1600 étudiants à Aix-Marseille Université, nous contrôlons aléatoirement les informations et la pression concurrentielle auxquelles les étudiants sont exposés, afin d'évaluer le degré d'anxiété ou de stress généré par la crise du Covid-19 sur les étudiants. À l'aide d'une série de tâches comportementales rémunérées, nous estimons l'impact à court terme de cette anxiété sur les capacités cognitives, la confiance et les préférences économiques des élèves, comme la prise de risque. Ce sont des résultats cruciaux pour les résultats scolaires et la réussite des étudiants sur le marché du travail. Enfin, nous collectons des données approfondies sur le profil socio-économiques, l'expérience de Covid-19, les activités sociales et la santé mentale, ainsi que les attentes et les aspirations des étudiants. Cela nous permettra d'identifier les groupes particulièrement vulnérables à l'anxiété liée à Covid-19. 
L'objectif de l'étude est double. Tout d'abord, il formulera des recommandations politiques susceptibles d'améliorer les dispositifs de soutien aux étudiants concernés. Deuxièmement, il contribuera à la littérature scientifique sur les conséquences économiques de facteurs psychologiques tels que l'anxiété et le stress. 

Summary

This research project aims at better understanding the consequences of the major, deeply uncertain, and society-wide shock of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic on university students who, by definition, are at the doorstep of their professional life and need substantial cognitive resources to make the most of their university training. We investigate the following question: Does the anxiety generated by the Covid-19 pandemic affect the learning and decision-making capacities of students and, if yes, by how much and through which channels? We specifically test the impact of the negative labor-market and social consequences of the Covid-19 crisis on students’ cognitive abilities, confidence and locus of control, expectations, risk preferences, and mental health. We hypothesize that the anxiety and uncertainty linked to the pandemic might impose additional and relatively heavy burdens on students’ mind, thereby taxing cognitive function and altering deliberative capacity. Students might spend more of their available ‘cognitive bandwidth’ (Mullainathan and Shafir, 2013) worrying about their future, which could lead to lower performance. In order to uncover mechanisms and allow sharper recommendations about student support policies, our design will quantify the relative importance of worries regarding future labor-market opportunities and the impairment of social life and network, test the role of the competitive structure of the payoff scheme, and perform a variety of heterogeneity analyses to identify particularly vulnerable groups such as female, low economic background and depression-prone students. 
In an online experiment with 1600 students at Aix-Marseille University, we randomly control the information and competitive pressure to which students are exposed, in order to assess how much anxiety or stress is generated by the Covid-19 crisis on students. Using a series of incentivized behavioral tasks, we then estimate the short-run impact of such anxiety on students’ cognitive abilities, confidence, and economic preferences such as risk-taking. These are crucial outcomes for students’ academic performance and success in the labor market. Finally, we collect in-depth data on students’ socio-economic background, Covid-19 experience, social activities and mental health, as well as expectations and aspirations. This will enable us to identify groups that are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19-related anxiety. 
The objective of the study is two-fold. First and foremost, it will deliver policy recommendations likely to improve support schemes for affected students. Second, it will contribute to the scientific literature on the economic consequences of psychological factors such as anxiety and stress. 

Funder

ANR

Contact

Timothée Demont (timothee.demont[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

December 01st 2021 to May 31st 2024

Summary

The growing use of artificial intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) by banks and Fintech companies is one of the most significant changes in technology being integrated in the financial industry over past decades. In a recent report (ACPR, 2018), the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority evaluates the disruptive potential of ML and concludes that it raises subject to mixed judgements. On the one hand, this set of new techniques holds great promise for the future of financial services. On the other hand, its practical applications still face many unresolved challenges. Within this context, the MLEforRisk project aims to provide better understanding of the usefulness of the combination of ML and econometrics for financial risk measurement. MLEforRisk is a multi-disciplinary project in the fields of finance and financial econometrics, which brings together senior and junior researchers in business, economics, and applied mathematics.

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

The growing use of artificial intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) by banks and Fintech companies is one of the most significant changes in technology being integrated in the financial industry over past decades. In a recent report (ACPR, 2018), the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority evaluates the disruptive potential of ML and concludes that it raises subject to mixed judgements. On the one hand, this set of new techniques holds great promise for the future of financial services. On the other hand, its practical applications still face many unresolved challenges. Within this context, the MLEforRisk project aims to provide better understanding of the usefulness of the combination of ML and econometrics for financial risk measurement. MLEforRisk is a multi-disciplinary project in the fields of finance and financial econometrics, which brings together senior and junior researchers in business, economics, and applied mathematics.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Sébastien LAURENT (sebastien.laurent[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

January 01st 2020 to June 30th 2023

Summary

Concerns about inequality and questions of social justice and cohesion have re-entered the public arena and animate public debate, provoked by the well-documented recent rapid increases in crosssectional income inequality. While much has been learnt from the recent literature on inequality,Deaton's (2015) Nobel lecture outlines several imperatives that are key to understanding inequalities and formulating welfare-enhancing policies, i.e.:(i) differences in resources across individuals should be measured not only at specific points in time but also across the life course; (ii) direct economic measures of well-being should be developed in order to assess better socioeconomic outcomes; and (iii) data should be reconciled with lifecycle models to investigate the causal mechanisms behind socio-economic outcomes. Our research proposal is built on these imperatives, and brings together several coherently linked work packages (WPs) that focus,from a life-course perspective,on the causes of inequalities (income and wealth) and income fluctuations (income risk and mobility),their welfare and policy implications.Empirically, coherence is achieved by working with a common unique data source, the SOEP-RV (housed at team member DIW) which matches to the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) exactly linked administrative records from the statutory German Pension system. These data are thus unique in their accurate recording of labour market events and income histories over the life-course during the active and retirement phase, while adding to administrative side the rich contextual data contained in SOEP available at individual and household-level. We also extend the traditional life-cycle perspective beyond the usual retirement data (labelled below the “extended life-cycle”). Our central research questions are: 1. How can the life-course dynamics of individual incomes be characterised? 2. How can we systematically evaluate the effects of negative events (unemployment or health shocks), or positive ones (job changes) on individual trajectories and well-being? 3. How can we construct comprehensive measures of economic inequality and mobility taking into account wealth, income and the uncertainty of future incomes? 4. Taking a comprehensive life course view, how can policy intervene effectively to combat inequality? What is the equity-efficiency trade-off? LINDY is organised as a set of four integrated WPs that address these questions, moving from descriptive and statistical work in WP1 to explanations using dynamic models in WP2 that seek to distinguish between events (e.g. bad health shock) and individual decisions given constraints. Having characterised the life-course dynamics, in WP3 we develop integrated measures of economic capacity that allow to measure inequality in a comprehensive way, going beyond the common focus on current-period incomes. WP4 synthesizes the results and puts forward policy measures to efficiently combat inequality.

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

Concerns about inequality and questions of social justice and cohesion have re-entered the public arena and animate public debate, provoked by the well-documented recent rapid increases in crosssectional income inequality. While much has been learnt from the recent literature on inequality,Deaton's (2015) Nobel lecture outlines several imperatives that are key to understanding inequalities and formulating welfare-enhancing policies, i.e.:(i) differences in resources across individuals should be measured not only at specific points in time but also across the life course; (ii) direct economic measures of well-being should be developed in order to assess better socioeconomic outcomes; and (iii) data should be reconciled with lifecycle models to investigate the causal mechanisms behind socio-economic outcomes. Our research proposal is built on these imperatives, and brings together several coherently linked work packages (WPs) that focus,from a life-course perspective,on the causes of inequalities (income and wealth) and income fluctuations (income risk and mobility),their welfare and policy implications.Empirically, coherence is achieved by working with a common unique data source, the SOEP-RV (housed at team member DIW) which matches to the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) exactly linked administrative records from the statutory German Pension system. These data are thus unique in their accurate recording of labour market events and income histories over the life-course during the active and retirement phase, while adding to administrative side the rich contextual data contained in SOEP available at individual and household-level. We also extend the traditional life-cycle perspective beyond the usual retirement data (labelled below the “extended life-cycle”). Our central research questions are: 1. How can the life-course dynamics of individual incomes be characterised? 2. How can we systematically evaluate the effects of negative events (unemployment or health shocks), or positive ones (job changes) on individual trajectories and well-being? 3. How can we construct comprehensive measures of economic inequality and mobility taking into account wealth, income and the uncertainty of future incomes? 4. Taking a comprehensive life course view, how can policy intervene effectively to combat inequality? What is the equity-efficiency trade-off? LINDY is organised as a set of four integrated WPs that address these questions, moving from descriptive and statistical work in WP1 to explanations using dynamic models in WP2 that seek to distinguish between events (e.g. bad health shock) and individual decisions given constraints. Having characterised the life-course dynamics, in WP3 we develop integrated measures of economic capacity that allow to measure inequality in a comprehensive way, going beyond the common focus on current-period incomes. WP4 synthesizes the results and puts forward policy measures to efficiently combat inequality.

Keywords

Inequality, life cycle, wealth, income risks

Funder

ANR

Contact

Emmanuel Flachaire (emmanuel.flachaire@univ-amu.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2018 to March 31st 2022

Résumé

Dans un environnement économique complexe, la gestion du risque est un aspect essentiel des décisions économiques, et affecte sensiblement le développement économique et les inégalités. La gestion du risque est façonnée par deux facteurs principaux : le niveau de protection en cas de chocs négatifs sur les revenus, et le niveau d’information disponible sur l’environnement économique. Les réseaux économiques et sociaux jouent un rôle déterminant dans les deux dimensions. En effet, les réseaux sont un vecteur essentiel de partage de risque entre familles dans les économies en développement ou entre institutions financières; en outre, les réseaux sont des canaux naturels de transmission d’information. Deux phénomènes majeurs récent, la mondialisation des échanges et l’explosion  des  technologies  numériques,  créent  plus  d’interdépendances  entre  les  agents
économiques, et renforcent ainsi les effets des réseaux. Comment ces changements affectent-ils l’impact des réseaux sur la gestion du risque, sur le développement économique et sur les inégalités ? Ce projet a pour but d’étudier l’impact des réseaux économiques et sociaux sur la gestion du risque, le développement économique et les inégalités. Nous utiliserons à la fois des investigations théoriques, expérimentales et empiriques pour étudier l’impact des réseaux sur la gestion du risque. Dans un premier ensemble de contributions, nous étudierons les réseaux comme vecteurs de partage de risque. L’accroissement des interdépendances entre agents économiques inhérent à la mondialisation rend cette question très actuelle. Nous explorerons les relations entre prise de risque et partage de risque tant au niveau individuel qu’au niveau des entreprises. Au niveau individuel, nous analyserons la tension entre les comportements de prise de risque et les règles de partage de risque optimales sur les réseaux, et nous examinerons l’interaction entre prise de risque et altruisme dans les réseaux sociaux. Au niveau de l’entreprise, nous explorerons les liens entre prise de risque et le risque systémique d’une part, et propagation des défauts d’autre part. Les secteurs productif et financier méritent tous deux investigations, et nous les traiterons séparément. Dans un second ensemble de contributions, nous étudierons les réseaux comme canaux de transmission d’information. Cette question doit amener une réflexion renouvelée car l’émergence récente des technologies numériques dans nos sociétés modernes modifie les ensembles d’information des agents de même que leurs perceptions sur le réseau. Nous étudierons la diffusion de l’information dans des contextes économiques variés. Nous établirons les liens entre opportunités économiques et transmission stratégique d’information dans les réseaux. Nous analyserons aussi la diffusion d’opinions ou de croyances, et nous explorerons comment les agents peuvent séparer les effets d’influence sociale des sources intrinsèques d’information transmises sur les réseaux. Nous explorerons enfin les questions de perception individuelle de l’information dans les réseaux. Les décisions individuelles étant souvent façonnées par des normes sociales et par des biais de perception, nous explorerons comment les réseaux affectent ces biais de perception, et nous étudierons comment l’information sur le réseaux affecte les décisions économiques. Ce projet se base sur la collaboration de membres de l’AMSE et d’autres universités, incluant des universités méditerranéennes et d’autres universités prestigieuses telles que Stanford, Kent, et les universités affiliées à PSE. L’équipe constituée pour ce projet a une longue expérience en économie des réseaux. Ce projet serait une occasion exceptionnelle de fédérer toutes ces forces, à la fois en France et dans d’autres pays.

Summary

In a complex economic environment, managing risk is a key aspect of economic decisions, and it has a huge impact on economic development and inequalities. Risk management is mould by two main factors: the level of protection in case of bad shocks, and the available information about the economic environment. Social and economic networks play a prominent role in both dimensions. Indeed, networks are channels for risk sharing between households in developing economies or between financial institutions; also, networks are conduits for information transmission. Two recent major phenomena, the globalization of exchanges and the explosion of numerical technologies, create more interdependencies between economic agents, and thus reinforce network effects. How do these changes affect the impact of networks on the management of risk, on economic development and on inequalities? This project aims at studying the impact of economic and social networks on risk management, economic development and inequalities. We will use theoretical, experimental and empirical investigations to study the impact of networks on risk management. In a first set of contributions, we will study networks as risk sharing devices. The increase of interdependencies between economic agents due to globalization makes this a current issue. We will explore the interplay between risk taking and risk sharing at both individual and firm level. At the individual level, we will analyze the tension between risk taking behaviors and optimal risk sharing rules on networks, and we will examine the relationship between risk taking and altruism in social networks.  At the firm level, we will explore how risk taking affects systemic risk and contagion of default. Both financial and production sectors deserve interest, and we will treat them separately. In a second set of contributions, we will study networks as information sharing devices. This is a hot topic because the recent surge of numerical technologies in our modern societies modifies the information sets of agents as well as their perceptions about the network. We will investigate the diffusion of information in various contexts. We will study how the existence of economic opportunities can lead to strategic information transmission in networks. We will also examine the diffusion of opinions or beliefs, and we will track how agents can uncouple social influence from accurate information transmitted on networks. We will also investigate the individual perception of information in networks. Agents’ decisions being often shaped by social norms and perception biases, we will explore how networks affect these perception biases, and we will study how information on the network structure affects economic decisions. This project relies extensively on the collaboration of different members of GREQAM and other universities, including Mediterranean universities and other prestigious ones such as Stanford, Kent, and universities affiliated to PSE. The team constituted for this project has a long experience in the economics of networks. This project would be an exceptional occasion to federate all these forces, both in France and in other countries.

Keywords

networks, risk management, information transmission, public policy

Funder

ANR

Contact

Frédéric Deroïan (frederic.deroian[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2019 to March 31st 2024

Résumé

Ce projet de recherche mobilise les instruments de l’économie politique et de la théorie de la fiscalité optimale pour apporter un éclairage croisé sur le lien entre inégalités, migration et démocratie. Le volet 1 explorera les modalités de redistribution des richesses, avec un focus particulier sur la charge fiscale pesant sur les classes moyennes. Le volet 2 aura pour objectif d’estimer l’impact de l’évolution, à la fois réelle ou telle que relayée par les médias, du système socio-fiscal sur le vote d’extrême- droite. Cette analyse nous permettra d’éclairer la montée récente de l’extrême-droite chez les classes moyennes dans le monde occidental. Dans le premier volet, nous chercherons tout d’abord à mesurer l’évolution des inégalités de revenus avant et après redistribution en France depuis le début du XXème siècle et à quantifier l’ampleur de la redistribution opérée par les prélèvements obligatoires et la dépense publique sur longue période. Nous étudierons ensuite comment la fiscalité affecte le comportement des ménages français les plus riches à travers deux analyses complémentaires. La première étudiera comment la fiscalité influence la décision des plus hauts revenus de rester (ou non) sur le territoire national en fonction de leur niveau d’imposition. La seconde cherchera à estimer l’impact des modalités d’imposition des plus riches sur l’offre de travail ou le recours à l’optimisation fiscale de ces derniers. Nous pourrons sur cette base déterminer le sommet de la « courbe de Laffer » des ménages les plus riches, c’est-à-dire calculer le taux d’imposition le plus élevé qui ne conduit pas à une destruction de richesse pure et simple dont pâtirait l’ensemble de la population Des taux observés inférieurs à ces taux imputés témoigneraient de marges de redistributions inexploitées, et donc de réformes fiscales potentielles qui pourraient être mobilisées pour redistribuer une partie du fardeau fiscal des classes moyennes vers les plus aisées. De telles réformes, compatibles avec l’efficacité économique, renforceraient également l’équité du système socio-fiscal. La question qui se pose alors est celle de leur faisabilité politique. Nous explorerons cette question dans un cadre théorique novateur permettant d'introduire le processus de décision politique dans un modèle de redistribution optimale des richesses, tout en tenant compte des possibilités de nomadisme des citoyens. Dans le second volet, nous chercherons tout d’abord à mesurer l’effet de la fiscalité et de ses évolutions sur le vote d’extrême droite en France. Cette analyse permettra ensuite de mener une comparaison entre l’intensité des effets de la fiscalité sur le vote d’extrême-droite, d’une part, et l’impact estimé des déterminants socio-économiques mis en évidence dans la littérature, d’autre part, à savoir le chômage, l’exposition de la main d’œuvre peu qualifiée à la concurrence des pays à bas salaires, ou encore l’immigration. A l’aide d’un modèle structurel de vote, nous mènerons une analyse contrefactuelle ayant pour objectif de quantifier l’impact sur le vote d’extrême droite de réformes fiscales qui viseraient à redistribuer une partie du fardeau fiscal des classes moyennes vers les classes plus aisées. Nous analyserons ensuite le rôle des médias, à la fois traditionnels (presse écrite, radio et télévision) et sociaux (à l’image de Twitter) dans l’évolution du vote d’extrême droite. Plus particulièrement, nous estimerons l’effet de la couverture médiatique des pratiques d’évasion et d’optimisation fiscales observées au niveau individuel (i.e., opérés par des individus ou des entreprises) sur le vote d’extrême droite.

Summary

This project lies at the intersection of the political economy literature and the theory of optimal taxation. Its objective is to initiate an analysis on the links between inequalities, migration, and democracy. The first working package focuses on income redistribution, with an emphasis on middle classes. The second working package’s ambition is to estimate the impact of the tax and transfer system, and its media coverage, on far-right parties’ voting shares. This analysis will shed light on the determinants of the rising propensity of the middle class to vote in favor of these far-right parties. In the first working package, we first aim at measuring the evolution of pre-tax and post-tax income inequality and evaluating the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers on inequality in France since the beginning of the XXth century. We will then conduct two complementary analysis of behavioral responses to taxation among top income earners. The first study will analyze how taxation affects the decision of top income earners to emigrate. The second study will estimate how the design of income taxes may influence labor supply responses and/or the use of tax optimization strategies. Next, we will use the estimated behavioral responses to determine the top of the Laffer curve, that is, the rate of taxation at which tax revenue is maximized. Current top tax rates ranging below this estimated tax rate would suggest the existence of unexploited margins of redistribution, and therefore opportunities to implement tax reforms that would redistribute a part of the tax burden from the middle class to top- income earners. Such reforms, consistent with economic efficiency, would also improve the equity of the tax-and -transfer system. Finally, we turn our analysis into their political feasibility. We will explore this issue by providing theoretical foundations to the political process underlying redistributive policies in a context of international migration. In the second working package, we will first evaluate the effect of taxation and its evolution on the far-right vote in France. This quantitative analysis will allow us to compare the effect of taxation with that of other socio-economic determinants of the far-right vote identified by the literature, such as unemployment, exposure of low skill workers to import competition, or immigration. Using a structural model of vote, we will then conduct a counterfactual exercise allowing us to quantify the impact of tax reforms favoring the middle class on the far-right vote. We will finally analyze the role of media (traditional or social) on the evolution of the far-right vote. More precisely, we will estimate the effect of the media coverage of tax evasion or tax optimization strategies implemented by individuals or firms on the far-right vote. This project lies at the intersection of the political economy literature and the theory of optimal taxation. Its objective is to initiate an analysis on the links between inequalities, migration, and democracy. The first working package focuses on income redistribution, with an emphasis on middle classes. The second working package’s ambition is to estimate the impact of the tax and transfer system, and its media coverage, on far-right parties’ voting shares. This analysis will shed light on the determinants of the rising propensity of the middle class to vote in favor of these far-right parties. In the first working package, we first aim at measuring the evolution of pre-tax and post-tax income inequality and evaluating the redistributive impact of taxes and transfers on inequality in France since the beginning of the XXth century. We will then conduct two complementary analysis of behavioral responses to taxation among top income earners. The first study will analyze how taxation affects the decision of top income earners to emigrate. The second study will estimate how the design of income taxes may influence labor supply responses and/or the use of tax optimization strategies. Next, we will use the estimated behavioral responses to determine the top of the Laffer curve, that is, the rate of taxation at which tax revenue is maximized. Current top tax rates ranging below this estimated tax rate would suggest the existence of unexploited margins of redistribution, and therefore opportunities to implement tax reforms that would redistribute a part of the tax burden from the middle class to top- income earners. Such reforms, consistent with economic efficiency, would also improve the equity of the tax-and -transfer system. Finally, we turn our analysis into their political feasibility. We will explore this issue by providing theoretical foundations to the political process underlying redistributive policies in a context of international migration. In the second working package, we will first evaluate the effect of taxation and its evolution on the far-right vote in France. This quantitative analysis will allow us to compare the effect of taxation with that of other socio-economic determinants of the far-right vote identified by the literature, such as unemployment, exposure of low skill workers to import competition, or immigration. Using a structural model of vote, we will then conduct a counterfactual exercise allowing us to quantify the impact of tax reforms favoring the middle class on the far-right vote. We will finally analyze the role of media (traditional or social) on the evolution of the far-right vote. More precisely, we will estimate the effect of the media coverage of tax evasion or tax optimization strategies implemented by individuals or firms on the far-right vote.

Keywords

inégalités ; migrations ; radicalisation ; fiscalité ; démocratie ; classes moyennes

Keywords

inequality, democracy, middleclasses

Funder

ANR

Contact

Alain Trannoy

Dates

October 01st 2017 to March 31st 2022

Résumé

Le projet est centré sur l’étude de la qualité de l’information disponible sur internet. Il s’articule autour de deux axes : l’obsolescence et la manipulation de l’information. Les nouvelles technologies de communication ont permis l’émergence d’intermédiaires facilitant le recueil et la diffusion d’informations utiles aux deux côtés du marché. On peut cependant questionner l’efficacité de cette information dans la mesure où sa production engendre des externalités négatives : les employeurs sont peu incités à détruire les offres d’emplois pourvues et les hôteliers ou restaurateurs peuvent avoir intérêt à manipuler les notes ou commentaires laissés sur leur profil ou sur ceux de leurs concurrents. Nous souhaitons mesurer l’ampleur de ces externalités en combinant méthodes de web scraping permettant le recueil à grande échelle de données sur internet et modèles structurels des comportements des acteurs présents sur les différents sites.
D’une part, nous allons constituer un panel d’annonces à partir des sites américains de Craigslist, Monster et Indeed et du site français de Pôle Emploi. Nous estimerons des taux de mortalité et des taux de renouvellement des annonces par âge. Ces taux seront ensuite intégrées aux modèles structurels pour en déduire la proportion de postes fantômes, la distribution des efforts de recherche par âge des annonces, la distribution des âges de renouvellement des annonces et l’impact des informations obsolètes sur le chômage et l’efficacité du processus d’appariement. D’autre part, nous allons récupérer les évaluations d’un grand nombre d’hôtels et de restaurants à partir des sites TripAdvisor, Expedia, Booking, TheFork et OpenTable. Nous confronterons la distribution empirique des évaluations à des distributions contrefactuelles théoriques pour détecter les comportements de manipulation. Nous monterons ensuite comment le contexte concurrentiel local affecte ces comportements. Nous mettrons l’accent sur les guerres de manipulation entre offreurs sur ce type de site. Les différents travaux tiendront compte de la sélection des couples de consommateurs et de producteurs dans le processus de formation des évaluations.
 

Summary

The project focuses on the quality of information on digital marketplaces and other web platforms. It is composed of two axes: information obsolescence and information manipulation. New technologies of communication have facilitated the emergence of two-sided markets where platforms collect and diffuse information about market participants. We question information efficiency in light of two negative externalities: employers have little incentive to withdraw ads for already filled jobs and hotels and restaurants can manipulate customers' evaluations. We plan to measure the magnitude of these externalities. We will combine web scraping methods to obtain data from various websites with structural models of agents’ behaviors and their interactions.
On the one hand we will build a panel dataset of ads from three US job boards - Craigslist, Monster and Indeed - and the French website of Pôle Emploi. We will estimate the mortality rate and renewal rate of job listings by listing age. These hazard rates will be introduced in structural models to compute phantom job proportions, the distribution of applications by listing age, the distribution of listing renewal age and the overall impact of obsolete information on unemployment and matching efficiency. On the other hand, we will use the evaluations received by a large number of hotels and restaurants on TripAdvisor, Expedia, Booking, TheFork and OpenTable. We will confront the empirical distribution of evaluations of each hotel or restaurant with theory-grounded counterfactual distributions. This will allow us to detect information manipulation behaviors. We will show how the local intensity of competition affects manipulation. We will also highlight wars of information manipulation. The research will pay attention to the sorting of consumers and producers in the evaluation-making process.

Keywords

économie de l'information, web scraping, modèles structurels, extraction de signal, postes vacants fantômes, frictions d'appariement

Funder

ANR

Contact

Bruno Decreuse (bruno.decreuse[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2016 to June 30th 2022

Summary

While a greater  Gdp  per capita  has often been assimilated  with  higher  society welfare in the  past, following the persuasive arguments of A.K. Sen (Commodities and Capabilities,  North-Holland, Am- sterdam, 1985), it is now widely accepted  among the economic profession that a person’s well-being comprises  many  other  dimensions  than  income.   The  need  for a more  comprehensive  approach to well-being has  been  reiterated by the  Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Commission that  further  recommended that the  distribution among  the  citizens of well-being and  of its different components  is taken  into account  in the  computation of social welfare.   The  recognition  of the  multidimensional nature  of well-being has given rise to distinct  approaches  among which the construction of dashboard indices and  composite  measures  has  played  a prominent  role.   Focusing  on each  dimension  of well-being in isolation,  the  dashboard approach fails to  provide  an overall  view of the  society’s performance. The  Human  Development  Index  (Hdi) of the  United  Nations,  that incorporates the  three  essential dimensions  of a person’s well-being (namely,  income, health  and  education), is a follow-up of Sen’s ideas.  More recently,  the Better  Life Index  (Bli) of the Oecd has extended  the scope of the Hdi  by introducing eight dimensions  in addition  to those used in its computation.

While they represent notable  advances  in the measurement of the overall performance  of the society and,  beyond  that, of the  well-being of its  members,  both  the  Hdi  and  the  Bli are  not  exempt  of deficiencies. The Hdi  and the Bli are aggregate  indices and,  as such, they  do not care much of the distribution among the population of the different attributes that contribute to a person’s well-being, not to speak of the distribution of well-being in the society.  By combining aggregates  – one for each attribute – without  paying  attention to  the  possible associations  between  the  different  dimensions of well-being,  the  Hdi  and  the  Bli leave aside  important determinants of a society’s welfare like the  exposure  and  vulnerability of the  individuals  to various  sorts  of risks.  Finally,  by transforming heterogenous  data  into  distributions of scores for each  attribute and  applying  to  them  standard measures,  the Hdi  and the Bli neglect the fact that the prime data  are of different nature, ranging from cardinally-measurable attributes  (like income)  to  variables  involving  ordered  categories  (like health  status).

Building  on the  fiction  of the  paternalistic ethical  observer,  we propose  to  construct measures  of socio-economic performance  and  well-being that acknowledge  the  multidimensional nature  of well- being,  pay  due  attention to  the  distribution and  interaction between  the  attributes, and  take  full account of the measurability nature  of the attributes. These measures  will make one able to provide answers  to  questions  of interest for the  policy-maker  and  the  general  public  like the  following:  (i) Can we correctly  claim that our health  system guarantees equal access to medical care whatever  the circumstances of the  individuals?   Is a move in direction  to the  British  health  care system  likely to reduce  the  inequalities  of health  statuses among  the  population?  (ii)  Does the  poor  performance on average of French  students at the PISA tests  go along with high inequalities  in the distributions of the  scores suggesting  that the  French  educational system  might be doubly  inefficient?  To which extent inequalities - provided that there is evidence of such inequalities  - in reading, mathematics and problem solving are related  to the socio-economic characteristics of the parents and more generally to their origins?  (iii) Is ex-post redistribution by means of progressive tax-benefit systems more effective in reducing the long run income inequalities than  an ex-ante redistributive policy that would tax more heavily the intergenerational transmission of wealth?

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

While a greater  Gdp  per capita  has often been assimilated  with  higher  society welfare in the  past, following the persuasive arguments of A.K. Sen (Commodities and Capabilities,  North-Holland, Am- sterdam, 1985), it is now widely accepted  among the economic profession that a person’s well-being comprises  many  other  dimensions  than  income.   The  need  for a more  comprehensive  approach to well-being has  been  reiterated by the  Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Commission that  further  recommended that the  distribution among  the  citizens of well-being and  of its different components  is taken  into account  in the  computation of social welfare.   The  recognition  of the  multidimensional nature  of well-being has given rise to distinct  approaches  among which the construction of dashboard indices and  composite  measures  has  played  a prominent  role.   Focusing  on each  dimension  of well-being in isolation,  the  dashboard approach fails to  provide  an overall  view of the  society’s performance. The  Human  Development  Index  (Hdi) of the  United  Nations,  that incorporates the  three  essential dimensions  of a person’s well-being (namely,  income, health  and  education), is a follow-up of Sen’s ideas.  More recently,  the Better  Life Index  (Bli) of the Oecd has extended  the scope of the Hdi  by introducing eight dimensions  in addition  to those used in its computation.

While they represent notable  advances  in the measurement of the overall performance  of the society and,  beyond  that, of the  well-being of its  members,  both  the  Hdi  and  the  Bli are  not  exempt  of deficiencies. The Hdi  and the Bli are aggregate  indices and,  as such, they  do not care much of the distribution among the population of the different attributes that contribute to a person’s well-being, not to speak of the distribution of well-being in the society.  By combining aggregates  – one for each attribute – without  paying  attention to  the  possible associations  between  the  different  dimensions of well-being,  the  Hdi  and  the  Bli leave aside  important determinants of a society’s welfare like the  exposure  and  vulnerability of the  individuals  to various  sorts  of risks.  Finally,  by transforming heterogenous  data  into  distributions of scores for each  attribute and  applying  to  them  standard measures,  the Hdi  and the Bli neglect the fact that the prime data  are of different nature, ranging from cardinally-measurable attributes  (like income)  to  variables  involving  ordered  categories  (like health  status).

Building  on the  fiction  of the  paternalistic ethical  observer,  we propose  to  construct measures  of socio-economic performance  and  well-being that acknowledge  the  multidimensional nature  of well- being,  pay  due  attention to  the  distribution and  interaction between  the  attributes, and  take  full account of the measurability nature  of the attributes. These measures  will make one able to provide answers  to  questions  of interest for the  policy-maker  and  the  general  public  like the  following:  (i) Can we correctly  claim that our health  system guarantees equal access to medical care whatever  the circumstances of the  individuals?   Is a move in direction  to the  British  health  care system  likely to reduce  the  inequalities  of health  statuses among  the  population?  (ii)  Does the  poor  performance on average of French  students at the PISA tests  go along with high inequalities  in the distributions of the  scores suggesting  that the  French  educational system  might be doubly  inefficient?  To which extent inequalities - provided that there is evidence of such inequalities  - in reading, mathematics and problem solving are related  to the socio-economic characteristics of the parents and more generally to their origins?  (iii) Is ex-post redistribution by means of progressive tax-benefit systems more effective in reducing the long run income inequalities than  an ex-ante redistributive policy that would tax more heavily the intergenerational transmission of wealth?

Keywords

multidimensional inequalities, ordinal inequalities, distribution of individual well-being, dominance criteria

Funder

ANR

Contact

Nicolas Gravel (nicolas.gravel[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

March 01st 2021 to February 28th 2025

Résumé

Dans un contexte d’économie circulaire, le projet RECALL propose d’extraire les métaux de valeur (fer et métaux critiques) dans un déchet minier : les résidus de bauxite. Du fait de l’importance économique des métaux critiques (ils sont présents dans de nombreuses applications émergentes) et leur fort risque d’approvisionnement, la production de ces métaux à partir de sources secondaires apparaît comme une voie inévitable pour de pérenniser ces nouvelles filières économiques. Ainsi, ce projet propose de développer des procédés "doux" d’extraction (procédés physico-chimique et bio-inspiré) en se basant sur une caractérisation fine des déchets et de la spéciation des métaux et sur une analyse socio-économique. Ce projet sera un tremplin pour cette thématique identifiée comme stratégique par le CEREGE et permettra d’initier des collaborations internationales (Horizon Europe). Ce projet d’intérêt scientifique, économique et sociétal est soutenu par l’institut de l’économie circulaire.

Summary

In the context of a circular economy, the RECALL project aims at extracting valuable metals in mining waste: bauxite residues. Due to the economic importance of critical metals (they are present in many emerging applications) and their high supply risk, production from secondary resources appears to be inevitable in order to sustain these new economic sectors. Thus, this project proposes to develop environmentally sustainable extraction processes (soft physico-chemical and bio-inspired processes) to recover these metals, with thorough characterization of the waste and metal speciation and the evaluation of social welfare associated with the process being developed. This research project will be a springboard for this research topic identified as strategic by the CEREGE lab and for initiating collaborative project (EU calls, Horizon Europe). This project, not only of scientific interest, but also of economic and societal interest, is supported by the French Institute of Circular Economy.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Dominique Ami (dominique.ami[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

May 01st 2021 to April 30th 2022

Résumé

La crise sanitaire pourrait remettre en question le système de préférences des individus et se traduire par un changement profond et durable des comportements. Cependant, la vaccination rapide à grande échelle peut contrarier cette dynamique. Le choc Covid-19 et son contre-choc vaccinal, seront-ils à l’origine d’un changement de préférences permanent, ou au contraire d’une instabilité transitoire avec résilience rapide ? En particulier, les préférences sociales dégradées peuvent-elles revenir à leur niveau antérieur ?

Pour proposer des réponses à ces questions, ce projet s'appuie sur une précédente enquête réalisée lors du premier confinement (avril / mai 2020), sur un échantillon représentatif de la population française. Nous proposons d’y adjoindre les observations de deux nouvelles campagnes, utilisant un échantillon identique, afin d’évaluer les changements de préférence (aversion au risque, impatience, et préférences sociales) en combinant des tâches expérimentales et des mesures déclaratives.

Nous nous intéresserons à certains comportements de santé critiques durant la crise, comme les addictions. Nous étudierons aussi la pertinence d’une intervention visant à atténuer le déclin des préférences sociales par une amélioration de l'état de pleine conscience.

Summary

Economists identify individuals’ psychology with their “social and economic preferences” (risk attitudes, time discounting, trust, cooperativeness, altruism, etc.), which were supposed to be stable over time. However, it has been shown that exposure to background risk can impact those preferences. In particular, there is evidence that the exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic can increase anti-social behavior, and decrease trust and altruism. Therefore, a major long-term drawback of the crisis could be a deep erosion of social preferences, i.e. a degradation of trustworthiness, cooperativeness, and a rise of anti-social behaviors and social isolation, with plausible consequences on mental health.

The aim of this project is i) to measure to what extent economics and social preferences have been impacted by COVID-19 exposure, ii) to assess whether risk-exposure reduction can restore previous preferences by itself (for example thanks to vaccination), iii) to test a soft intervention, based on individuals’ enhancement of their mindfulness, to reduce the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on individuals’preferences.

This research project builds upon a previous online study (V1 hereafter) realized by the research-team during the first lockdown (April/May 2020), on a representative sample of the French population - allowing a lab-in-the-field data collection. It will be composed of two additional studies “V2” and “V3” using a partly renewed sample.

Risk preferences, time preferences and social preferences were measured in V1 with a complementary approach combining standardized incentivized experiments and self-reported measures, alongside with several variables measuring attitudes toward the epidemic and its consequences. The two additional surveys proposed in the present project consist in measuring, one-year (for V2) and one year and a half (for V3) after the first study: i) economic preferences with the same elicitation tools, ii) individual exposure to COVID-19 (e.g. number of contacts with infected person, COVID-19 statistics in respondents’ area), iii) health and economic behaviors during the crisis, addictive behaviors in particular. It is thanks to this system of repeated surveys in panel (V1- V2 - V3) that the project will be able to determine the evolution of economic preferences, in the face of the epidemic and in the face of the "counter-shock" of the vaccine.

At the end of V2, a soft intervention will be made. We will provide respondents scientific evidence about the benefit of a higher state of mindfulness to reduce the psychological shock caused by the crisis, and will offer them the opportunity to receive counselling on how to enhance their states of mindfulness (e.g. through meditation). We will implement a Randomized Controlled Trial, with two types of messaging to increase the likelihood of counselling acceptance, its follow-up and its effectiveness: 1) we test a feedback communication strategy on how the respondents’ reference-group was psychologically impacted and 2) we test a communication strategy on participants’ level of mindfulness compared to their reference group.

Our project falls under the following themes of the second axis “Epidemic prevention and control, and social dynamic” of the call for projects: “Evolution of sociability forms, social cohesion and collective behavior”; “Effect of the epidemic on inequalities, vulnerability and precariousness of populations”; “Short and long-term consequences of Covid-19 on mental health and psychological well-being in the different population groups”.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Bruno Ventelou (bruno.ventelou[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

January 01st 2020 to December 31st 2022

Résumé

"Selon des projections récentes, l’offre de soins libérale pourrait diminuer de 30 % jusqu’en 2027, étendant ainsi les poches de sous-densité médicale à des portions relativement larges du territoire français. Le projet s’intéresse aux différentes formes d’adaptations que les médecins généralistes de ville mettent en œuvre lorsque, sur leur territoire, ils sont confrontés à la raréfaction de leurs confrères.

Objectifs

Une des questions centrales sera d’estimer les risques de « mal-adaptation », pour lesquels la trajectoire d’ajustement choisie par le médecin s’avère socialement sous-optimale, pour lui-même, pour ses patients, et pour la population de sa zone d’exercice. Une autre question importante traitée par la recherche sera d’étudier une forme d’adaptation particulière, promue par les pouvoirs publics : celle du regroupement en maison de santé et notamment sa forme pluri-professionnelle.

Méthodes

La constitution d’un matériel empirique original sera permise par la collaboration entre Aix-Marseille-Sciences Economiques, l’IRDES, l’Observatoire Régional de la Santé PACA et le ministère de la santé (Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques – DREES). Nous partirons d’une base de données constituées d’enquêtes répétées auprès d’un échantillon représentatif de médecins généralistes ; nous ajouterons des données appariées à ces médecins, notamment ‘écologiques’ (repérées sur leur situation géographique), mais aussi sur leurs pratiques de soins/prescription (appariement SNIIRAM). a) La qualification de la raréfaction de l’offre de soins sera abordée de manière transversale à partir des zones sous-dotées définies en 2017 et de manière longitudinale à partir des tendances d’évolution de la densité de médecins généralistes libéraux depuis 2004. Ces éléments de contexte viendront enrichir avec d’autres indicateurs géographiques (réseaux, infrastructure locales, etc.) les données disponibles sur les médecins du panel pour qualifier leur territoire d’exercice, y compris de façon “dynamique”. b) Les indicateurs de pratique seront construits à partir des données du SNDS (SNIIRAM), pour enrichir les informations recueillies dans le panel. Le choix et la construction d’indicateurs de qualité s'appuieront sur différents travaux (IRDES, ORS PACA) et documents de référence (ex: liste ACSC, liste Stop&start) Enfin, une approche par entretiens qualitatifs, sera conduite par l’ORS PACA auprès de MG exerçant dans des zones dites sous-denses, en MSP ou non pour confronter les indicateurs objectifs et leurs perceptions. Nous proposerons d’abord des études des cas de sous-densité médicale déjà observés en nous focalisant sur leurs associations possibles avec les comportements d’offre de travail des médecins (y compris le choix de l’installation et du maintien), avec des stratégies de réorganisation des cabinets, ou avec des pratiques médicales spécifiques impactant la qualité des soins offerts aux patients (en dépassant les indicateurs de la ROSP). Les questions de facteurs confondants et “d’endogénéité” de l’installation des médecins seront traitées. Nous nous intéresserons ensuite aux dispositifs d’accompagnement, généralement mis en place par les pouvoirs publics. L’enjeu de cette partie sera de proposer des éléments d’appréciation des stratégies d’adaptation, par exemple le regroupement en MSP. Nous recourrons le plus souvent à des analyses économétriques (design quasi expérimental, avec prise en compte des problèmes d’autosélection dans les programmes). Mais une approche qualitative sera aussi proposée.

Perspectives

L’approche proposée devrait renouveler les méthodes, et les connaissances, notamment parce qu’elle introduit des aspects dynamiques et qualitatifs (problématique du « maintien », plutôt que de l’installation ; effet sur (l’évolution de) la qualité des pratiques ; création d’indicateurs de suivi longitudinal des raréfactions et de l’adaptation des médecins). Optimiser le processus d’adaptation à la raréfaction de la ressource médicale est d’ores et déjà inscrit à l’agenda des politiques publiques ; notre approche devrait donc être directement utile pour le décideur (national et régional). Des partenariats sont déjà construits en PACA avec l’ARS et l’URPS et destinés à faire interagir nos travaux de recherche avec la décision publique territoriale."

Funder

Institut de Recherche en Santé Publique

Contact

Bruno Ventelou (bruno.ventelou@univ-amu.fr)

Dates

October 01st 2017 to April 30th 2023

Summary

The radical events  events in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and migration flows to Europe in recent years structurally affected social and economic life in those countries. They have also fueled a political debate about the roots and effects of violence and radicalization in the Mediterranean region. Further, this topic has gained attention following the 9/11 attacks and the series of violent terrorist incidents perpetrated by Islamic State and al Qaida activists in Europe. 
This project refers to “DEFI 9, Axe 3” that surveys the freedom and global security of Europe and its citizens and residents. The project’s purpose is to enhance and accumulate new knowledge against terrorism and radicalization originated from MENA countries to suggest specific policies reducing violence. Specifically, we will investigate the functioning of terrorist or violent organizations, the factors of citizen mobilization, the role of new cyber technologies and national government policies in these processes. A special attention will be devoted to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, on which our team has already accumulated a substantial experience, a network for collaborations and a precise knowledge of the relevant data thanks to the TMENA 2014-2016 project funded by the ‘Initiative of Excellence’ of the French government (http://christophemuller.net/tmena/). This project differs from typical research on violence in MENA in that it will focus on the repercussions of MENA events in terms of violence against European residents. 
The challenges are not only methodological, like data availability or the use of advanced econometrics techniques, but also theoretical, as the literature does not provide any comprehensive framework on these issues¸ especially, on the link between government policies and political mobilization and violence (Abadie 2004). Although there are many studies on terrorism based on the available data (Attributes of Terrorist Events, the RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents and the Global Terrorism Database), they suffer from rudimentary theory, disconnection of the theoretical analysis and empirical evidence and weak econometric methodology. Moreover, a broad literature on political violence has produced empirically controversial findings (LaFree and Freilich 2012, Besley and Persson 2011, Dal Bo and Dal Bo 2011, Alesina et al. 2016, Blattman and Miguel, 2010). The internal organization of terrorist groups has not been understood (Carter, 2015). The determinants of participation in violence at the individual level have been relatively unexplored (e.g. Humphreys and Weinstein, 2008), with the puzzle of inefficient free riding still unclear. Moreover, little is known about the respective roles played by social networks and the spread of ideas through internet (Enikolopov, Petrova and Makarin, 2016). Finally, the questions related to the links between government policies and civil unrest need more investigation, especially those concerning social exclusion of certain groups and redistribution policies. 
The literature has attributed a special attention to the MENA region, which is characterized by monarchical and autocratic legacies as well as violent political transformations in recent years, followed by refugee crises and a rising threat of terrorist attacks in France and Europe (Egorov and Sonin 2011, Besley and Persson 2011). Further, the region experiences an increasing influence of new cyber technologies in mobilizing citizens for protests, facilitating collective actions and functioning of terrorist and radical groups (Acemoglu, Hassan, and Tahoun, 2014; Steinert-Threlkeld, Mocanu, Vespignanni and Fowler, 2015). 
We intend to fill these gaps in the literature by exploring the circumstances conducive to violence, and related to the strategic interaction between government and terrorist organizations, on the one hand, and government policies and new aspirations of the populations, on the other hand. First, we want to address these issues by determining the factors that cause the emergence and sustainability of terrorist organizations from both macro and micro perspectives (Gaibulloev and Sandler 2014, Blomberg et al., 2010). Although many attacks may appear to be led by independent individuals, they are also influenced, at least ideologically, by the strategies of political organizations. The understanding of the internal functioning of the political organizations that use violence as a tactic is an important ingredient for establishing policies against terrorism. A particular strand of research will be based on the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviour database that presents violent and non-violent strategies of 112 militant organizations over more than 20 years in MENA. We will determine what the interaction of these organizations is with national governments and local leaders and whether the reciprocity of violence is an equilibrium result or the consequence of provocation or other types of tactics. 
Second, we intend to investigate the role played by social media and new cyber technologies like Twitter and Facebook in the occurrence and intensity of protests and terrorist attacks in the MENA countries. This direction of research is associated with additional risks of data availability. However, we will use jointly geo-localized data on both radical events and internet communications, which should mitigate these issues. This strategy will also allow us to examine how actors from Europe and other countries are involved in these activities. We will then be able to assess the risks of spreading violence in neighboring countries and Europe. In particular we will explore the patterns of communication between individuals across Europe and the Mediterranean regions. 
Third, we will accumulate knowledge and present evidence on how governments may reduce violence and limit the activities of terrorist organizations at local, national and global levels. We will design a theoretical model of the interactions between government and terrorist organizations and test it using data accounting for internet activities. 
Finally, we will examine how civic unrest, guerrilla and riots are interlinked with government social and redistributive policies, using State-of-the-Art econometric techniques for Big Data (Chernozhukov et al. 2016, Manacorda 2011). We aim at gaining a better understanding of how strategic equilibria between government and violent movements can be embodied in actual policies. Even if governments in these countries are supposed to provide benevolent social policies, their decisions often respond rather to selfish political motives (Loewe 2014) and can sometimes indirectly foster people to leave their home countries or participate in terrorist and violent activities. It is equally interesting to investigate why certain types of policies are more frequent in this region (e.g., public works, food subsidies), but also whether and how they are driven by political motives to reduce social unrest and political instability. 
Methodologically, we will follow a structural approach coordinating theoretical modeling and empirical estimation and test of the model predictions. To analyze the relationship between terrorist or violent organizations and government policies, we will develop suitable theoretical models, like dynamic non-cooperative games; for example for repression-violence cycles (Rosella et al, 2014). This will enable us to address the question of the efficiency of the militant action, in terms of favors, transfers of rents and policy changes. Along with our empirical research, we will also produce new methodological improvements, both in terms of causality and instrumentation strategies, and new spatial panel econometrics estimators. We will address the dearth of data in the MENA and other low and middle income countries. For this, we will merge data from different sources previously not combined, and second, we will exploit new numeric technologies to gather original data at local and individual levels. Using together geo-localized data, country census and individual survey data should avail us new statistical strategies in spatial econometric analysis (Lee and Yu 2010, Kelejian and Prucha 2010).

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

The radical events  events in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and migration flows to Europe in recent years structurally affected social and economic life in those countries. They have also fueled a political debate about the roots and effects of violence and radicalization in the Mediterranean region. Further, this topic has gained attention following the 9/11 attacks and the series of violent terrorist incidents perpetrated by Islamic State and al Qaida activists in Europe. 
This project refers to “DEFI 9, Axe 3” that surveys the freedom and global security of Europe and its citizens and residents. The project’s purpose is to enhance and accumulate new knowledge against terrorism and radicalization originated from MENA countries to suggest specific policies reducing violence. Specifically, we will investigate the functioning of terrorist or violent organizations, the factors of citizen mobilization, the role of new cyber technologies and national government policies in these processes. A special attention will be devoted to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, on which our team has already accumulated a substantial experience, a network for collaborations and a precise knowledge of the relevant data thanks to the TMENA 2014-2016 project funded by the ‘Initiative of Excellence’ of the French government (http://christophemuller.net/tmena/). This project differs from typical research on violence in MENA in that it will focus on the repercussions of MENA events in terms of violence against European residents. 
The challenges are not only methodological, like data availability or the use of advanced econometrics techniques, but also theoretical, as the literature does not provide any comprehensive framework on these issues¸ especially, on the link between government policies and political mobilization and violence (Abadie 2004). Although there are many studies on terrorism based on the available data (Attributes of Terrorist Events, the RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents and the Global Terrorism Database), they suffer from rudimentary theory, disconnection of the theoretical analysis and empirical evidence and weak econometric methodology. Moreover, a broad literature on political violence has produced empirically controversial findings (LaFree and Freilich 2012, Besley and Persson 2011, Dal Bo and Dal Bo 2011, Alesina et al. 2016, Blattman and Miguel, 2010). The internal organization of terrorist groups has not been understood (Carter, 2015). The determinants of participation in violence at the individual level have been relatively unexplored (e.g. Humphreys and Weinstein, 2008), with the puzzle of inefficient free riding still unclear. Moreover, little is known about the respective roles played by social networks and the spread of ideas through internet (Enikolopov, Petrova and Makarin, 2016). Finally, the questions related to the links between government policies and civil unrest need more investigation, especially those concerning social exclusion of certain groups and redistribution policies. 
The literature has attributed a special attention to the MENA region, which is characterized by monarchical and autocratic legacies as well as violent political transformations in recent years, followed by refugee crises and a rising threat of terrorist attacks in France and Europe (Egorov and Sonin 2011, Besley and Persson 2011). Further, the region experiences an increasing influence of new cyber technologies in mobilizing citizens for protests, facilitating collective actions and functioning of terrorist and radical groups (Acemoglu, Hassan, and Tahoun, 2014; Steinert-Threlkeld, Mocanu, Vespignanni and Fowler, 2015). 
We intend to fill these gaps in the literature by exploring the circumstances conducive to violence, and related to the strategic interaction between government and terrorist organizations, on the one hand, and government policies and new aspirations of the populations, on the other hand. First, we want to address these issues by determining the factors that cause the emergence and sustainability of terrorist organizations from both macro and micro perspectives (Gaibulloev and Sandler 2014, Blomberg et al., 2010). Although many attacks may appear to be led by independent individuals, they are also influenced, at least ideologically, by the strategies of political organizations. The understanding of the internal functioning of the political organizations that use violence as a tactic is an important ingredient for establishing policies against terrorism. A particular strand of research will be based on the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviour database that presents violent and non-violent strategies of 112 militant organizations over more than 20 years in MENA. We will determine what the interaction of these organizations is with national governments and local leaders and whether the reciprocity of violence is an equilibrium result or the consequence of provocation or other types of tactics. 
Second, we intend to investigate the role played by social media and new cyber technologies like Twitter and Facebook in the occurrence and intensity of protests and terrorist attacks in the MENA countries. This direction of research is associated with additional risks of data availability. However, we will use jointly geo-localized data on both radical events and internet communications, which should mitigate these issues. This strategy will also allow us to examine how actors from Europe and other countries are involved in these activities. We will then be able to assess the risks of spreading violence in neighboring countries and Europe. In particular we will explore the patterns of communication between individuals across Europe and the Mediterranean regions. 
Third, we will accumulate knowledge and present evidence on how governments may reduce violence and limit the activities of terrorist organizations at local, national and global levels. We will design a theoretical model of the interactions between government and terrorist organizations and test it using data accounting for internet activities. 
Finally, we will examine how civic unrest, guerrilla and riots are interlinked with government social and redistributive policies, using State-of-the-Art econometric techniques for Big Data (Chernozhukov et al. 2016, Manacorda 2011). We aim at gaining a better understanding of how strategic equilibria between government and violent movements can be embodied in actual policies. Even if governments in these countries are supposed to provide benevolent social policies, their decisions often respond rather to selfish political motives (Loewe 2014) and can sometimes indirectly foster people to leave their home countries or participate in terrorist and violent activities. It is equally interesting to investigate why certain types of policies are more frequent in this region (e.g., public works, food subsidies), but also whether and how they are driven by political motives to reduce social unrest and political instability. 
Methodologically, we will follow a structural approach coordinating theoretical modeling and empirical estimation and test of the model predictions. To analyze the relationship between terrorist or violent organizations and government policies, we will develop suitable theoretical models, like dynamic non-cooperative games; for example for repression-violence cycles (Rosella et al, 2014). This will enable us to address the question of the efficiency of the militant action, in terms of favors, transfers of rents and policy changes. Along with our empirical research, we will also produce new methodological improvements, both in terms of causality and instrumentation strategies, and new spatial panel econometrics estimators. We will address the dearth of data in the MENA and other low and middle income countries. For this, we will merge data from different sources previously not combined, and second, we will exploit new numeric technologies to gather original data at local and individual levels. Using together geo-localized data, country census and individual survey data should avail us new statistical strategies in spatial econometric analysis (Lee and Yu 2010, Kelejian and Prucha 2010).

Keywords

Terrorisme, radicalisation, politique gouvernementale, Proche-Orient et Afrique du Nord.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Christophe Muller (christophe.muller[at]univ-amu.fr)

Dates

April 01st 2022 to March 31st 2026

Summary

Digitalization is the sociotechnical phenomenon of adopting information and communication technologies. Beyond wages and employment, this can have important effects on non-pecuniary (NP) working conditions, job satisfaction and wellbeing at work. Our objective is to understand how digitalization affects these dimensions of work, as well as how it affects the way individuals tradeoff wages and NP work conditions. The nature of social distancing during the COVID pandemic and the reliance of telecommuting on digital technologies have pushed these issues into the limelight. Therefore, we will also study the effects of digitalization in the context of the pandemic.

We ask whether and how digitalization impacts various dimensions of working conditions – hours, flexibility, mobility, physical effort, autonomy, team work, etc. – and thus job satisfaction and occupational choices. Taking into account non-pecuniary aspects of job quality is important because both wages and NP work conditions are considered by workers deciding on labor supply – and by employers deciding on labor demand – and there is reason to believe that they have not evolved in lockstep. One of the goals of project WRKCOV19 is to deepen our understanding of how new digital technologies (DTs) affect the joint evolution of wage and working conditions. The importance of this issue has recently been magnified by the COVID-19 crisis, as many employers and workers have dramatically increased their use of DTs in order to promote remote work and limit human contact in the workplace. Little is known about the impact of this radical re-organization on working conditions and wellbeing at work. And while vaccination campaigns will gradually remove many such barriers, much of the working conditions landscape will not return to the status quo ante.

Résumé (anglais uniquement)

Digitalization is the sociotechnical phenomenon of adopting information and communication technologies. Beyond wages and employment, this can have important effects on non-pecuniary (NP) working conditions, job satisfaction and wellbeing at work. Our objective is to understand how digitalization affects these dimensions of work, as well as how it affects the way individuals tradeoff wages and NP work conditions. The nature of social distancing during the COVID pandemic and the reliance of telecommuting on digital technologies have pushed these issues into the limelight. Therefore, we will also study the effects of digitalization in the context of the pandemic.

We ask whether and how digitalization impacts various dimensions of working conditions – hours, flexibility, mobility, physical effort, autonomy, team work, etc. – and thus job satisfaction and occupational choices. Taking into account non-pecuniary aspects of job quality is important because both wages and NP work conditions are considered by workers deciding on labor supply – and by employers deciding on labor demand – and there is reason to believe that they have not evolved in lockstep. One of the goals of project WRKCOV19 is to deepen our understanding of how new digital technologies (DTs) affect the joint evolution of wage and working conditions. The importance of this issue has recently been magnified by the COVID-19 crisis, as many employers and workers have dramatically increased their use of DTs in order to promote remote work and limit human contact in the workplace. Little is known about the impact of this radical re-organization on working conditions and wellbeing at work. And while vaccination campaigns will gradually remove many such barriers, much of the working conditions landscape will not return to the status quo ante.

Funder

ANR

Contact

Eva Moreno-Galbis (eva.moreno-galbis[at]univ-amu.fr)