Publications

Abstract What this study adds: This study provides evidence of the health burden and economic losses attributable to heat and cold in Central and South American countries, covering various climates and populations. Most of the mortality burden for Central and South American countries is caused by cold compared to heat. The results showed geographical and climatic variations, indicating a significantly higher impact of nonoptimal temperatures in countries of the Southern Cone and locations with temperate climates. These findings offer direct evidence to guide policymakers in developing public health policies for mitigation and adaptation to the region's health effects and economic impacts of nonoptimal temperatures.
Keywords Mortality burden, Economic loss, Time series, Distributed lag nonlinear models, Multicountry, Central and South America, Nonoptimal temperatures
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Abstract Many problems ask a question that can be formulated as a causal question: what would have happened if...? For example, would the person have had surgery if he or she had been Black? To address this kind of questions, calculating an average treatment effect (ATE) is often uninformative, because one would like to know how much impact a variable (such as the skin color) has on a specific individual, characterized by certain covariates. Trying to calculate a conditional ATE (CATE) seems more appropriate. In causal inference, the propensity score approach assumes that the treatment is influenced by , a collection of covariates. Here, we will have the dual view: doing an intervention, or changing the treatment (even just hypothetically, in a thought experiment, for example by asking what would have happened if a person had been Black) can have an impact on the values of . We will see here that optimal transport allows us to change certain characteristics that are influenced by the variable whose effect we are trying to quantify. We propose here a mutatis mutandis version of the CATE, which will be done simply in dimension one by saying that the CATE must be computed relative to a level of probability, associated to the proportion of x (a single covariate) in the control population, and by looking for the equivalent quantile in the test population. In higher dimension, it will be necessary to go through transport, and an application will be proposed on the impact of some variables on the probability of having an unnatural birth (the fact that the mother smokes, or that the mother is Black).
Keywords Quantiles, Optimal Transport, Mutatis Mutandis, Counterfactual, CATE, Conditional Average Treatment Effects, Causality
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Abstract The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th–18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and -convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.
Keywords Convergence, Homeostasis, Malthusian trap, Preventive checks, Positive checks, Malthusian model, Beta-convergence
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Abstract In the competition for hegemony of major powers, it seems logical for a small or middle power state to be ambiguous on its preference. Aligning with one protagonist for protection and preferential treatment can only be at the expense of antagonizing the other. Conventional wisdom holds that hedging is practical as it allows a country to leverage on its amicable relations with both powers. The ASEAN states are caught in the middle of the U.S.–China economic rivalry as well as directly engaged in maritime disputes with China. This paper evaluates strategic ambiguity versus alignment against the backdrop of trade decoupling of rival superpowers. Using a multi-sector, multi-country Ricardian trade model, our simulation results reveal that it is in the interest of some economies to align with one of two camps, contrary to conventional wisdom. The diverse welfare effects of decoupling on member states prevent the attainment of a unified ASEAN position and undermine ASEAN centrality in curbing the risk of a second cold war.
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Abstract Background: The aim of this study (EPIDIAB) was to assess the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and the micro and macrovascular complications (MVC) of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: EPIDIAB is a post hoc analysis from the AngioSafe T2D study, which is a multicentric study aimed at determining the safety of antihyperglycemic drugs on retina and including patients with T2D screened for diabetic retinopathy (DR) (n = 7200) and deeply phenotyped for MVC. Patients included who had undergone cardiac CT for CAC (Coronary Artery Calcium) scoring after inclusion (n = 1253) were tested with a validated deep learning segmentation pipeline for EAT volume quantification. Results: Median age of the study population was 61 [54;67], with a majority of men (57%) a median duration of the disease 11 years [5;18] and a mean HbA1c of7.8 ± 1.4%. EAT was significantly associated with all traditional CV risk factors. EAT volume significantly increased with chronic kidney disease (CKD vs no CKD: 87.8 [63.5;118.6] vs 82.7 mL [58.8;110.8], p = 0.008), coronary artery disease (CAD vs no CAD: 112.2 [82.7;133.3] vs 83.8 mL [59.4;112.1], p = 0.0004, peripheral arterial disease (PAD vs no PAD: 107 [76.2;141] vs 84.6 mL[59.2; 114], p = 0.0005 and elevated CAC score (> 100 vs < 100 AU: 96.8 mL [69.1;130] vs 77.9 mL [53.8;107.7], p < 0.0001). By contrast, EAT volume was neither associated with DR, nor with peripheral neuropathy. We further evidenced a subgroup of patients with high EAT volume and a null CAC score. Interestingly, this group were more likely to be composed of young women with a high BMI, a lower duration of T2D, a lower prevalence of microvascular complications, and a higher inflammatory profile. Conclusions: Fully-automated EAT volume quantification could provide useful information about the risk of both renal and macrovascular complications in T2D patients.
Keywords CAC score, Cardiac computed tomography, Deep learning, Epicardial adipose tissue, Type 2 diabetes
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Abstract Troc Carbone Avion (TCA) est un mécanisme de répartition des quotas d’émissions pour les passagers français du transport aérien assorti d’un mécanisme de troc au prix tutélaire du carbone de 100 € la première année et qui suit pour les années suivantes la trajectoire de croissance des prix définie dans le rapport Quinet II. Il peut aussi être décrit comme un mécanisme hybride de taxe/subvention avec seuil. En se basant sur les dernières données disponibles, chaque Français disposerait d’un quota d’émission de 0,4 tonne de carbone la première année. Le mode opératoire est une application du type TousAntiCovid avec QR code exigé, un « pass carbone », au moment de l’enregistrement par les compagnies aériennes pour obtenir sa carte d’embarquement. Le compte carbone personnel serait rattaché à la possession de la nationalité française ou le fait de résider en France. Nous estimons que le TCA pourrait entraîner une baisse de 6 % du total des émissions la première année pour une valeur d’échange sur le marché de l’ordre d’1,5Md’€. Le TCA est aussi un mécanisme de transfert qui redistribue du pouvoir d’achat essentiellement du dernier décile au premier décile de la distribution de revenus qui pourrait voir son pouvoir d’achat augmenter de 0,5 %. Nous proposons une variante du TCA pour le rendre compatible et complémentaire du système d’échange des quotas d’émission européen, SEQE-UE.
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Abstract This paper assesses whether and how setting up a sovereign wealth fund has a buffer effect against currency crises. Using an innovative dynamic logit panel model framework and a unique dataset covering 34 emerging countries over the period 1989–2019, we empirically show that sovereign wealth funds reduce the occurrence of currency crises. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, alternative definitions of sovereign wealth funds, controlling for currency crisis risk factors, and income level sampling. Our findings have important implications for financial stability and for policymakers, who could further exploit the potential of sovereign wealth funds to better manage foreign exchange risks.
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Abstract Recent papers use regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) based on age discontinuity to evaluate social assistance (SA) and unemployment insurance (UI) extension policies. Job search theory predicts that such designs generate biased estimates of the policy-relevant treatment effect. Owing to market frictions, people below the age threshold modify their search behavior in expectation of future eligibility. We use a job search model to quantify the biases on various datasets in the literature. The impacts of SA benefits on employment are underestimated, whereas those of UI extensions on nonemployment duration are overestimated. The article provides insights for RDD evaluations of age-discontinuous policies.
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Abstract The article explores Ricœur’s critical interpretation of Rawls’ theory of social justice. While Ricœur has a dialectical conception of justice (where the “good” encompasses the “just”), contrasting with Rawls’ procedural approach (where the just is defined independently of the good), Ricœur shows a strong interest in Rawls’ ideas. He situates Rawls’ project within one of the moments of the dialectic of the just: the moral moment. This dialectic arises from the aporetic nature of the just and manifests in ethical life as three paradoxes: political, legal, and socio-economic. While Rawls’ approach struggles with these paradoxes, they are the driving force of Ricœur’s approach to justice, highlighting its strength.
Keywords Rawls, Social justice, Ethics and morality, Dialectic, Fairness, Practical wisdom, Moral sense, Injustice, Injustice, Sens moral, Sagesse pratique, Équité, Dialectique, Éthique et morale, Rawls, Justice sociale
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Abstract Abstract We argue that market forces shaped the geographic distribution of upper-tail human capital across Europe during the Middle Ages, and contributed to bolstering universities at the dawn of the Humanistic and Scientific Revolutions. We build a unique database of thousands of scholars from university sources covering all of Europe, construct an index of their ability, and map the academic market in the medieval and early modern periods. We show that scholars tended to concentrate in the best universities (agglomeration), that better scholars were more sensitive to the quality of the university (positive sorting) and migrated over greater distances (positive selection). Agglomeration, selection, and sorting patterns testify to an integrated academic market, made possible by the use of a common language (Latin).
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