Publications

Abstract Le changement climatique, la perte de la biodiversité et l’altération globale de l’environnement détériorent la santé des populations. Plus particulièrement, l’augmentation des périodes marquées par des températures élevées et leur persistance pourraient constituer un risque majeur pour une large part de la population et limiter drastiquement l’activité humaine. Pourtant, les vagues de chaleur sont sous-représentées dans les analyses des événements météorologiques extrêmes, en particulier dans les évaluations économiques. Ce manque d’études, associé à la faible perception par la population du risque lié à la chaleur, limite la mise en place de mesures d’adaptation, alors que les effets des canicules sont en grande partie évitables. Cet article présente l’évolution de l’impact économique global des effets sanitaires des vagues de chaleur observées en France entre 1974 et 2020.
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Abstract In this paper, we reexamine the predictive power of the yield spread across countries and over time. Using a dynamic panel/dichotomous model framework and a unique dataset covering 13 OECD countries over the period 1975–2019, we empirically show that the yield spread signals recessions. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, controlling for recession risk factors and time sampling. Using a new cluster analysis methodology, we present empirical evidence of a partial homogeneity of the predictive power of the yield spread. Our results provide a valuable framework for monitoring economic cycles.
Keywords Yield spread Recession Panel binary model Cluster analysis
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Abstract Senegal introduced the infant hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination in 2004 and recently committed to eliminating hepatitis B by 2030. Updated epidemiological data are needed to provide information on the progress being made and to develop new interventions. We estimated the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in children and adults living in rural Senegal and assessed hepatitis B treatment eligibility. A cross-sectional population-based serosurvey of HBsAg was conducted in 2018-2019 in a large sample (n = 3,118) of residents living in the Niakhar area (Fatick region, Senegal). Individuals positive for HBsAg subsequently underwent clinical and biological assessments. Data were weighted for age and sex and calibrated to be representative of the area's population. Among the 3,118 participants, 206 were HBsAg positive (prevalence, 6.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.6-8.1). Prevalence varied markedly according to age group in individuals aged 0-4, 5-14, 15-34, and >= 35 years as follows: 0.0% (95% CI, 0.00-0.01); 1.5% (95% CI, 0.0-2.3); 12.4% (95% CI, 9.1-15.6); and 8.8% (95% CI, 6.1-11.5), respectively. Of those subsequently assessed, 50.9% (95% CI, 41.8-60.0) had active HBV infection; 4 (2.9%; 95% CI, 0.9-9.4) were eligible for hepatitis B treatment. Conclusion: In this first population-based serosurvey targeting children and adults in rural Senegal, HBsAg prevalence was very low in the former, meeting the World Health Organization's (WHO) < 1% HBsAg 2020 target; however, it was high in young adults (15-34 years old) born before the HBV vaccine was introduced in 2004. To reach national and WHO hepatitis elimination goals, general population testing (particularly for adolescents and young adults), care, and treatment scale-up need to be implemented.
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Abstract Despite its universal nature, the impact of COVID-19 has not been geographically homogeneous. While certain countries and regions have been severely affected, registering record infection rates and excess deaths, others experienced only milder outbreaks. We investigate to what extent human factors, in particular cultural origins reflected in different attitudes and behavioural norms, can explain different degrees of exposure to the virus. Motivated by the linguistic relativity hypothesis, we take language as a proxy for cultural origins and exploit the exogenous variation in the language spoken around the border that divides the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland to estimate the impact of culture on exposure to COVID-19. The results obtained using a spatial regression discontinuity design reveal, that within 50- and 25- kilometres bandwidth from the language border, the average COVID-19 exposure levels for individuals in French speaking municipalities was higher. In particular, we find that German speaking municipalities were associated with a reduction of around 40% - 50% in the odds of COVID-19 exposure compared to the French speaking municipalities.
Keywords COVID-19 Culture Language Spatial regression discontinuity
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Abstract Le rapport entre positif et normatif est une question méthodologique et théorique centrale en économie. À ce titre, les débats de la littérature spécialisée réclament une synthèse précise, à défaut de la cartographie exhaustive qui paraît une
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Abstract We test the effectiveness of a social comparison nudge to enhance lockdown compliance during the Covid-19 pandemic, using a representative sampleof metropolitan French adultpopulation(N=1154). Respondents were randomly assigned to a favourable/unfavourable informational feedback (daily road traffic mobility patterns, in Normandy -a region of France) on peer lockdown compliance.Our dependent variable was the intention to comply with a possible future lockdown. We controlled for risk, time, and social preferences and tested the effectiveness of the nudge. We found no evidence of theeffectiveness of thesocial comparison nudge among the wholepopulation, butthe nudgewas effective when its recipient and the reference population shared the same geographical location(Normandy). Exploratory results on this subsample (N=52) suggest that this effectiveness could be driven by non-cooperative individuals.
Keywords Risk preferences, Social preferences, Social Comparison Nudge, Time preferences, Lockdown compliance, COVID-19
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Abstract We consider a general equilibrium model with vertical preferences, where workers and consumers are differentiated respectively by their sensitivity to effort and their intensity of preference for quality. We consider a public monopoly, i.e. which is owned equally by all individuals. The question is under which conditions the firm will be privatized and at which rate/price. The decisions are taken through majority vote in a plurality system. When the firm is controlled by the State, the price is determined through a vote among all the population. Otherwise, the price is the one which maximizes the profit. We prove that, when the maximum disutility of working in the firm is higher than the maximum utility of consuming its output, privatization may emerge as a possible choice of the majority, even if no hypothesis is made on the efficiency of a private management relative to a public one.
Keywords Democracy, General equilibrium, Privatization, Vertical preferences, Majority vote, Public monopoly
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Abstract Who registers to vote? Although extensive research has examined the question of who votes, our understanding of the determinants of political participation will be limited until we know who is missing from the voter register. Studying voter registration in lower-income settings is particularly challenging due to data constraints. We link the official voter register with a complete social network census of 16 villages to analyze the correlates of voter registration in rural Uganda, examining the role of individual-level attributes and social ties. We find evidence that social ties are important for explaining registration status within and across households. Village leaders-and through them, household heads-play an important role in explaining the registration status of others in the village, suggesting a diffuse process of social influence. Socioeconomic factors such as income and education do not explain registration in this setting. Together these findings suggest an alternate theory of participation is required.
Keywords Electoral systems, Representation, Voting behavior, Public opinion, Elections, African politics
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Abstract Evolutionary finance focuses on questions of “survival and extinction” of investment strategies (portfolio rules) in the market selection process. It analyzes stochastic dynamics of financial markets in which asset prices are determined endogenously by a short-run equilibrium between supply and demand. Equilibrium is formed in each time period in the course of interaction of portfolio rules of competing market participants. A comprehensive theory of evolutionary dynamics of this kind has been developed for models in which short selling is not allowed and asset supply is exogenous. The present paper extends the theory to a class of models with short selling and endogenous asset supply.
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Abstract Introduction: Despite the early implementation of hepatitis B vaccination and the ongoing decentralisation of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) care, over 10% of the Senegalese adult population lives with CHB and liver cancer remains a main cause of death. Investigating factors associated with CHB infection, prevention of CHB-related morbidity, and prevention and treatment of mortality secondary to CHB calls for a holistic and multidimensional approach. This paper presents the adaptation of the health capability profile (HCP) to a specific epidemiological issue and empirical setting: it seeks to identify and analyse inter-related abilities and conditions (health capabilities) in relation to the CHB epidemic in the rural area of Niakhar, Senegal. Methods and analysis: This ongoing study relies on a sequential social justice mixed-methods design. The HCP is comprehensively adapted to CHB in rural Senegal and guides the design and conduct of the study. Objective and subjective data are collected at the individual level following a mixed-methods explanatory core design. The quantitative module, embedded in the ANRS12356 AmBASS cross-sectional survey (exhaustive sampling), is used to select a purposeful sampling of participants invited for one-on-one qualitative interviews. Additional data are collected at the institutional and community level through health facility surveys and an ethnography (in-depth interviews) of local and national CHB stakeholders. Data analysis adopts a synergistic approach to produce a multilayered analysis of individual HCPs and crosscutting analysis of the 15 health capabilities. The data integration strategy relies on a mixed-methods convergent core design, and will use 0–100 health capability scores as well as flow diagrams to measure and characterise levels of development and interactions among health capabilities, respectively. Ethics and dissemination: This study was approved by Senegalese and French authorities. Results dissemination through local workshops and scientific publications aim at fuelling effective policy change towards CHB-related health capability.
Keywords Rural, Senegal, Chronic hepatitis B, Social justice mixed-methods study, Health capability profile, Health capability model
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