Publications

Abstract This article identifies the effect of trade policy on market power through new data and a new identification strategy. We identify market power by observing how exporting firms price discriminate across markets following variations in bilateral exchange rates. Pricing-to-market is prevalent in all countries in our sample, even among small firms, although it is increasing in firm size. More importantly, we find that the effect of nontariff measures (NTMs) is not isomorphic to that of tariffs. Whereas tariffs reduce the market power of foreign firms through rent-shifting effects, NTMs reinforce the market power of nonexiting firms, domestic and foreign alike.
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Abstract This paper aims at quantifying the effect of healthcare programs on economic outcomes in the context of developing countries experiencing epidemiological transitions. It is widely accepted in the literature that treatment programs result in production gains among ill-health workers. However, these programs have the additional effect of modifying both the size and the composition of the working population by increasing the proportion of chronically-ill individuals. First, we define the theoretical conditions under which this macro-epidemiological phenomenon outweighs the positive effect of an increase in production. Second, we decompose the economic consequences of access to antiretroviral treatments against HIV in three sub-Saharan African countries. Forecasts of an individual’s health status, depending on whether he or she has access to medication, are generated using a microsimulation model. We use the model to generate a counterfactual (as if the adverse epidemiological effect did not exist), which allows decomposing the total impact of the HIV-medicines program into two different effects: positive and negative. We find that the positive effect of treatment procurement outweighs the negative epidemiological effect. Of course, this approach is only an indicator of economic performance and should in no way constitute a decision-making criterion about the ethical necessity of access to health care.
Keywords Microsimulation, Demographic changes, Treatment programs, Macroeconomic indicators, HIV/AIDS, VIH-SIDA, Changements démographiques, Programmes de traitement, Indicateurs macroéconomiques, Microsimulation
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Abstract Over the period 1994–2012, immigrants’ wage growth in France outperformed that of natives. We investigate to what extent changes in task-specific returns to skills contributed to this wage dynamics differential through two channels: changes in the valuation of skills (price effect) and occupational sorting (quantity effect). We find that the wage growth premium of immigrants is mainly explained by the progressive reallocation of immigrants toward tasks whose returns increase over time. Immigrants seem to have taken advantage of labor demand restructuring driven by globalization and technological changes.
Keywords Skills, Immigrants, Tasks, Wage dynamics
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Abstract This paper is about a little known part of Allais’ oeuvre, namely his restatement of the quantity theory of money. It shows that this restatement contains an original refinement of the notion of stability of the relative demand for money. To explain this refinement, this essay investigates Allais’ concept of psychological time – a concept strongly emphasised but not duly examined by most of his commentators. It shows how Allais’ restatement of the quantity theory amounts – in the final analysis – to a theory of time. It explores an analogy, Allais mentioned, between his quantity theory and the theory of relativity in physics, revealing thereby the ontological nature of this restatement.
Keywords Ontology, Relativity, Psychological time, The quantity theory of money, Maurice Allais
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Abstract This analysis proposes new measures of rent creation and rent sharing and assesses their impact on productivity on cross-country-industry panel data. We find first that: (1) anticompetitive product market regulations positively affect rent creation and (2) employment protection legislation boosts hourly wages, particularly for low-skill workers. However, we find no significant impact of this employment legislation on rent sharing, as the hourly wage increases are offset by a negative impact on hours worked. Second, using regulation indicators as instruments, we find that rent creation and rent sharing both have a substantial negative impact on total factor productivity. (JEL E22, E24, O30, L50, O43, O47, C23)
Keywords TFP, Rent-sharing, Mark-up, Labor market regulations, Product market regulations
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Abstract In this paper, we are interested in the interplay between real estate bubble, aggregate capital accumulation and taxation in an overlapping generations economy with altruistic households. We consider a three-period overlapping generations model with three key elements: altruism, portfolio choice, and financial market imperfections. Households realise different investment decisions in terms of asset at different periods of life, face a binding borrowing constraint and leave bequests to their children. We show that altruism plays a key role on the existence of a productive real estate bubble, i.e. a bubble in real estate raising physical capital stock and aggregate output. The key mechanism relies on the fact that a real estate bubble raises income of retired households. Because of higher bequests, there children are able to invest more in productive capital. Introducing fiscal policy, we show that raising real estate taxation dampens capital accumulation.
Keywords Real estate, Overlapping generations, Credit, Bubble, Altruism
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Abstract We study the existence of endogenous competitive equilibrium cycles under small discounting in a two-sector discrete-time optimal growth model. We provide precise concavity conditions on the indirect utility function leading to the existence of period-two cycles with a critical value for the discount factor that can be arbitrarily close to one. Contrary to the continuous-time case where the existence of periodic-cycles is obtained if the degree of concavity is close to zero, we show that in a discrete-time setting the driving condition does not require a close to zero degree of concavity but a symmetry of the indirect utility function’s concavity properties with respect to its two arguments.
Keywords Two-sector optimal growth model, Strong and weak concavity, Small discounting, Period-two cycles
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Abstract We examine the problem of providing a non-rival and excludable public good to individuals with the same preferences and differing contributing capacities. Exclusion from the public good is costly in the sense that if two different quantities of the public good are consumed in the community, then the sum of the costs of providing the two quantities must be borne. By contrast, costless exclusion only requires the cost of the largest quantity consumed of the public good to be financed. We show that despite its important cost, providing public goods in different quantities is often part of any optimal provision of public good when the public authority is imperfectly informed about the agents' contributive capacities. In the specific situation where individuals have an additively separable logarithmic utility function, we provide a complete characterization of the optimal exclusion structure in the two-type case. We also show that the preference for such a costly exclusion is more likely when the heterogeneity in the population or income is large, and when the aversion to utility inequality is important.
Keywords Costly exclusion, Public goods, Asymmetric information, Mechanism design
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Abstract In this paper, we investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.
Keywords R30, O52, G30, Financial constraints JEL classification D22, Collateral channel, Real estate prices, Firms&#039, investment, Financial constraints
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Abstract In this study, we investigate monthly seasonality in the foreign exchange market. Given the well-known recurrent higher returns in some month than in others in stock markets around the world, we consider it likely that a seasonal outperformance of a country's stock market over another is associated with similar seasonal patterns in capital flows and exchange rates. A seasonal profit (carry trade) opportunity can be created by the simultaneous appreciation of a country's currency and the outperformance of its stock market. By focusing on the world's key currency pairs, the US dollar-Deutsche mark and the US dollar-euro, and by using a Markov-switching framework, we document persistent January and December effects in the foreign exchange market from 1971 to 2017. Analysis of the German-US stock returns differential and their bilateral capital flows reveal similar month effects in 65% of the whole sample.
Keywords Carry trade, Markov-switching, UEP, Foreign currency market, Month effect, Seasonality
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Abstract Selon les projections récentes, les effectifs de médecins libéraux diminueront de 30 % d’ici à 2027 et la densité standardisée diminuerait jusqu’en 2023, créant des poches de sous-densité relativement nombreuses sur le territoire français métropolitain. L’article s’intéresse aux ajustements que les médecins généralistes de ville mettent en œuvre lorsque, sur leur territoire, ils sont d’ores et déjà confrontés à cette raréfaction. Les données utilisées sont celles du troisième panel des médecins généralistes enrichies d’indicateurs fournis par la CNAMTS. Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l’indicateur d’accessibilité potentielle localisé, développé par l’IRDES et la DREES, pour définir les zones les moins dotées en généralistes. En comparant les comportements des généralistes exerçant dans les zones les moins dotées à leurs homologues des zones mieux dotées, il est apparu d’abord que le planning d’activité du médecin tend à s’intensifier plutôt qu’à s’allonger. Nos données semblent en effet montrer que les rythmes de consultation dans les zones les moins dotées sont plus élevés, alors que le temps de travail global des généralistes s’avère quant à lui peu réactif à la densité en médecins alentour. On note aussi quelques différences statistiquement significatives sur les pratiques médicales : usage accru de certains médicaments, moins de renvoi vers des soins paramédicaux, suivis gynécologique probablement un peu moins réguliers, etc. Cependant, il semble que les différences ne sont pas statistiquement significatives pour les indicateurs de qualité des pratiques rattachés au dispositif de rémunération sur objectifs de santé publique (ROSP).
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Abstract We examine in this paper the complex decision-making processes that lead to investment location choice of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). Using a two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, we find that country-level factors do not have the same impact on the investment decision and the amount to invest and that SWFs tend to invest more frequently and with higher amounts in countries in which they already have invested. More specifically, we find that SWFs prefer to invest in countries with higher political stability, whereas they are more prone to investing for large amounts in countries that are less democratic and more financially opened. Our results also lend support to the idea that SWFs are prudent in the choice of target country concerning their investment decision but behave as more opportunistic investors concerning the amounts to be invested.
Keywords Two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, Macroeconomic country factors, Targeted countries, Sovereign Wealth Funds
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Abstract This paper empirically examines the determinants of health care spending for 18 Arab world countries for the period 1995–2015 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We conducted the same estimations for 3 sub-samples, namely high-income, upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries to reduce the heterogeneity among them. Our empirical findings demonstrate that health care expenditure and its determinants are non-stationary, and revealed the existence of a long run relationship among variables. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that income is not the only driver of health expenditure in the Arab world countries in the long run. Other variables such as medical progress and ageing population are also playing an important role in the increase of health care expenditure with major policy implications for the region in the long run. Furthermore, the results support that health care expenditure is a necessity good for the three income groups. Finally, the Pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship between health care expenditures and income for the full sample, as well as for the groups income.
Keywords Panel causality, Panel cointegration, Arab world, Health Expenditure
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Abstract The main two methods of endogeneity correction for linear quantile regressions with their advantages and drawbacks are reviewed and compared. Then, we discuss opportunities of alleviating the constant effect restriction of the fitted-value approach by relaxing identification conditions.
Keywords Two stage estimation, Quantile regression, Endogeneity, Fitted-Value Approach
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Abstract As illustrated by some French departments, how can we explain the existence of equilibria with different fertility and growth rates in economies with the same fundamentals , preferences, technologies and initial conditions? To answer this question we develop an endogenous growth model with altruism and love for children. We show that independently from the type of altruism, a multiplicity of equilibria might emerge if the degree of love for children is high enough. We refer to this condition as the love for children hypothesis. Then, the fertility rate is determined by expectations on the future growth rate and the dynamics are not path-dependent. Our model is able to reproduce different fertility behaviours in a context of completed demographic transition independently from fundamentals, preferences, technologies and initial conditions.
Keywords Bal- anced Growth Path, Endogenous growth, Expectations, Love for Children, Fertility
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Abstract Une littérature récente en histoire économique4 s’attache à comprendre les avancées et les progrès de la société occidentale sur une longue période en analysant la façon dont la connaissance est créée et diffusée à travers les institutions qui en sont dépositaires. Derrière ces institutions, formelles, telles les universités et les sociétés savantes, ou informelles, telles la République des Lettres5, se trouvent des hommes qui, par leur activité intellectuelle, ont créé, compilé, discuté, transmis les progrès du savoir6. Cette littérature s’appuie sur la notion de capital humain, développée par Gary Becker7, qui comprend l’ensemble des connaissances et compétences détenues par un individu, et étudie son impact et à son évolution dans le temps. La transmission du savoir est au cœur des universités, dont le rôle dans la diffusion du progrès reste sujet à controverse. Alors que les universités médiévales constituent l’une des créations les plus innovantes de la société occidentale, et sont créditées de nombreuses influences positives8, elles sont souvent considérées comme endormies et sclérosées lors de la période moderne9. Leurs difficultés à s’ouvrir aux nouveaux domaines en expansion10, voire leur opposition à la modernité, sont souvent citées comme cause de leur déclin. Nous étudions dans ce travail le corps professoral de l’ancienne université d’Aix, créée en 1409, dans un terreau déjà fertile pour l’enseignement supérieur (école cathédrale, école de grammaire), et abolie en 1793 par la Convention. L’université d’Aix est, typiquement, vue habituellement11 comme une université aux débuts difficiles, avec un développement certain à la fin du XVIe siècle, mais caractérisée par un manque d’éclat général et un faible nombre d’étudiants. Les livres sur l’histoire d’Aix ou de la Provence lui accordent d’ailleurs peu de place12. Cette vision mitigée repose sur la taille de la population étudiante, sur une estimation, subjective, de l’originalité de la production scientifique, ou encore sur le manque de diversité de sa population étudiante13. Construire une base de données sur le corps professoral de l’université d’Aix permet de reconsidérer cette question sous un angle nouveau.
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Abstract Objectives: To evaluate the clinical and economic burden of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in France. Methods: All 53,255 incident adult patients discharged with a first diagnosis of HNSCC in 2010–2012 were identified from the 2008–2013 French National Hospital Discharge (PMSI) database. We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of prognosis and direct costs attributable to HNSCC. Results: Direct medical costs attributable to HNSCC care amounted to 665 million euros in 2012 in France. The majority (62%) of incident patients were 64 years old or less at HNSCC diagnosis and incurred 1.3-fold higher mean direct costs as compared to elderly patients (41,909 vs 32,221 euros over 3 years, respectively; p
Keywords Burden of disease, Costs, Prognosis, Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, National Hospital discharge database
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Abstract In the aftermath of the U.S. financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on U.S. data, we argue that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogenous firms need cash and external liquid funds in their production process. We analyze the dynamic impact of aggregate shocks and the cross-firm impact of idiosyncratic shocks. We show that external liquidity shocks generate a negative comovement between the cash ratio and employment, as documented in the data.
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