Publications

Abstract We study the impact of socioeconomic factors on two key parameters of epidemic dynamics. Specifically, we investigate a parameter capturing the rate of deceleration at the very start of an epidemic, and a parameter that reflects the pre-peak and post-peak dynamics at the turning point of an epidemic like coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We find two important results. The policies to fight COVID-19 (such as social distancing and containment) have been effective in reducing the overall number of new infections, because they influence not only the epidemic peaks, but also the speed of spread of the disease in its early stages. The second important result of our research concerns the role of healthcare infrastructure. They are just as effective as anti-COVID policies, not only in preventing an epidemic from spreading too quickly at the outset, but also in creating the desired dynamic around peaks: slow spreading, then rapid disappearance.
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Abstract A considerable body of work has shown that motherhood is accompanied by a reduction in labor market participation and hours of market work, while more recent findings indicate that women who earn more than their husbands tend to subsequently take actions that reduce their market income. Both patterns of behavior have been interpreted as women trying to conform to child-rearing norms and to the prescription that the husband should be the main breadwinner. In this paper, we use panel data for US couples to re-examine women's behavior when they become mothers and when they are the main breadwinner. We start by asking whether the arrival of a child affects women who are the main breadwinner and those who are not in the same way, and then turn to how mothers and childless women react when they are the main breadwinner. Our results are consistent with the breadwinner norm only affecting mothers, suggesting that the salience of gender norms may depend on the household's context, notably on whether or not children are present. Concerning the arrival of a child, we find that although the labor supply of women who earn more than their husbands initially responds to motherhood less than that of secondary earners, the two groups converge after 10 years. Moreover, women in the former category exhibit a disproportionately large increase in the share of housework they perform after becoming mothers. The latter results suggest that the presence of children pushes women to seek to compensate breaking a norm by adhering to another one.
Keywords Children, Female labor supply, Gender identity norms, Relativeincome
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Abstract What this study adds: This study provides evidence of the health burden and economic losses attributable to heat and cold in Central and South American countries, covering various climates and populations. Most of the mortality burden for Central and South American countries is caused by cold compared to heat. The results showed geographical and climatic variations, indicating a significantly higher impact of nonoptimal temperatures in countries of the Southern Cone and locations with temperate climates. These findings offer direct evidence to guide policymakers in developing public health policies for mitigation and adaptation to the region's health effects and economic impacts of nonoptimal temperatures.
Keywords Nonoptimal temperatures, Mortality burden, Economic loss, Time series, Distributed lag nonlinear models, Multicountry, Central and South America
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Abstract Many problems ask a question that can be formulated as a causal question: what would have happened if...? For example, would the person have had surgery if he or she had been Black? To address this kind of questions, calculating an average treatment effect (ATE) is often uninformative, because one would like to know how much impact a variable (such as the skin color) has on a specific individual, characterized by certain covariates. Trying to calculate a conditional ATE (CATE) seems more appropriate. In causal inference, the propensity score approach assumes that the treatment is influenced by , a collection of covariates. Here, we will have the dual view: doing an intervention, or changing the treatment (even just hypothetically, in a thought experiment, for example by asking what would have happened if a person had been Black) can have an impact on the values of . We will see here that optimal transport allows us to change certain characteristics that are influenced by the variable whose effect we are trying to quantify. We propose here a mutatis mutandis version of the CATE, which will be done simply in dimension one by saying that the CATE must be computed relative to a level of probability, associated to the proportion of x (a single covariate) in the control population, and by looking for the equivalent quantile in the test population. In higher dimension, it will be necessary to go through transport, and an application will be proposed on the impact of some variables on the probability of having an unnatural birth (the fact that the mother smokes, or that the mother is Black).
Keywords Quantiles, Optimal Transport, Mutatis Mutandis, Counterfactual, CATE, Conditional Average Treatment Effects, Causality
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Abstract The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th–18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and -convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.
Keywords Convergence, Homeostasis, Malthusian trap, Preventive checks, Positive checks, Malthusian model, Beta-convergence
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Abstract In the competition for hegemony of major powers, it seems logical for a small or middle power state to be ambiguous on its preference. Aligning with one protagonist for protection and preferential treatment can only be at the expense of antagonizing the other. Conventional wisdom holds that hedging is practical as it allows a country to leverage on its amicable relations with both powers. The ASEAN states are caught in the middle of the U.S.–China economic rivalry as well as directly engaged in maritime disputes with China. This paper evaluates strategic ambiguity versus alignment against the backdrop of trade decoupling of rival superpowers. Using a multi-sector, multi-country Ricardian trade model, our simulation results reveal that it is in the interest of some economies to align with one of two camps, contrary to conventional wisdom. The diverse welfare effects of decoupling on member states prevent the attainment of a unified ASEAN position and undermine ASEAN centrality in curbing the risk of a second cold war.
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Abstract Background: The aim of this study (EPIDIAB) was to assess the relationship between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) and the micro and macrovascular complications (MVC) of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: EPIDIAB is a post hoc analysis from the AngioSafe T2D study, which is a multicentric study aimed at determining the safety of antihyperglycemic drugs on retina and including patients with T2D screened for diabetic retinopathy (DR) (n = 7200) and deeply phenotyped for MVC. Patients included who had undergone cardiac CT for CAC (Coronary Artery Calcium) scoring after inclusion (n = 1253) were tested with a validated deep learning segmentation pipeline for EAT volume quantification. Results: Median age of the study population was 61 [54;67], with a majority of men (57%) a median duration of the disease 11 years [5;18] and a mean HbA1c of7.8 ± 1.4%. EAT was significantly associated with all traditional CV risk factors. EAT volume significantly increased with chronic kidney disease (CKD vs no CKD: 87.8 [63.5;118.6] vs 82.7 mL [58.8;110.8], p = 0.008), coronary artery disease (CAD vs no CAD: 112.2 [82.7;133.3] vs 83.8 mL [59.4;112.1], p = 0.0004, peripheral arterial disease (PAD vs no PAD: 107 [76.2;141] vs 84.6 mL[59.2; 114], p = 0.0005 and elevated CAC score (> 100 vs < 100 AU: 96.8 mL [69.1;130] vs 77.9 mL [53.8;107.7], p < 0.0001). By contrast, EAT volume was neither associated with DR, nor with peripheral neuropathy. We further evidenced a subgroup of patients with high EAT volume and a null CAC score. Interestingly, this group were more likely to be composed of young women with a high BMI, a lower duration of T2D, a lower prevalence of microvascular complications, and a higher inflammatory profile. Conclusions: Fully-automated EAT volume quantification could provide useful information about the risk of both renal and macrovascular complications in T2D patients.
Keywords CAC score, Cardiac computed tomography, Deep learning, Epicardial adipose tissue, Type 2 diabetes
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Abstract Troc Carbone Avion (TCA) est un mécanisme de répartition des quotas d’émissions pour les passagers français du transport aérien assorti d’un mécanisme de troc au prix tutélaire du carbone de 100 € la première année et qui suit pour les années suivantes la trajectoire de croissance des prix définie dans le rapport Quinet II. Il peut aussi être décrit comme un mécanisme hybride de taxe/subvention avec seuil. En se basant sur les dernières données disponibles, chaque Français disposerait d’un quota d’émission de 0,4 tonne de carbone la première année. Le mode opératoire est une application du type TousAntiCovid avec QR code exigé, un « pass carbone », au moment de l’enregistrement par les compagnies aériennes pour obtenir sa carte d’embarquement. Le compte carbone personnel serait rattaché à la possession de la nationalité française ou le fait de résider en France. Nous estimons que le TCA pourrait entraîner une baisse de 6 % du total des émissions la première année pour une valeur d’échange sur le marché de l’ordre d’1,5Md’€. Le TCA est aussi un mécanisme de transfert qui redistribue du pouvoir d’achat essentiellement du dernier décile au premier décile de la distribution de revenus qui pourrait voir son pouvoir d’achat augmenter de 0,5 %. Nous proposons une variante du TCA pour le rendre compatible et complémentaire du système d’échange des quotas d’émission européen, SEQE-UE.
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Abstract This paper assesses whether and how setting up a sovereign wealth fund has a buffer effect against currency crises. Using an innovative dynamic logit panel model framework and a unique dataset covering 34 emerging countries over the period 1989–2019, we empirically show that sovereign wealth funds reduce the occurrence of currency crises. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, alternative definitions of sovereign wealth funds, controlling for currency crisis risk factors, and income level sampling. Our findings have important implications for financial stability and for policymakers, who could further exploit the potential of sovereign wealth funds to better manage foreign exchange risks.
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Abstract Recent papers use regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) based on age discontinuity to evaluate social assistance (SA) and unemployment insurance (UI) extension policies. Job search theory predicts that such designs generate biased estimates of the policy-relevant treatment effect. Owing to market frictions, people below the age threshold modify their search behavior in expectation of future eligibility. We use a job search model to quantify the biases on various datasets in the literature. The impacts of SA benefits on employment are underestimated, whereas those of UI extensions on nonemployment duration are overestimated. The article provides insights for RDD evaluations of age-discontinuous policies.
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Abstract The article explores Ricœur’s critical interpretation of Rawls’ theory of social justice. While Ricœur has a dialectical conception of justice (where the “good” encompasses the “just”), contrasting with Rawls’ procedural approach (where the just is defined independently of the good), Ricœur shows a strong interest in Rawls’ ideas. He situates Rawls’ project within one of the moments of the dialectic of the just: the moral moment. This dialectic arises from the aporetic nature of the just and manifests in ethical life as three paradoxes: political, legal, and socio-economic. While Rawls’ approach struggles with these paradoxes, they are the driving force of Ricœur’s approach to justice, highlighting its strength.
Keywords Ethics and morality, Rawls, Social justice, Injustice, Dialectic, Fairness, Practical wisdom, Moral sense, Injustice, Sens moral, Sagesse pratique, Équité, Dialectique, Éthique et morale, Rawls, Justice sociale
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Abstract Abstract Traditional mid‐term electricity forecasting models rely on calendar and meteorological information such as temperature and wind speed to achieve high performance. However depending on such variables has drawbacks, as they may not be informative enough during extreme weather. While ubiquitous, textual sources of information are hardly included in prediction algorithms for time series, despite the relevant information they may contain. In this work, we propose to leverage openly accessible weather reports for electricity demand and meteorological time series prediction problems. Our experiments on French and British load data show that the considered textual sources allow to improve overall accuracy of the reference model, particularly during extreme weather events such as storms or abnormal temperatures. Additionally, we apply our approach to the problem of imputation of missing values in meteorological time series, and we show that our text‐based approach beats standard methods. Furthermore, the influence of words on the time series' predictions can be interpreted for the considered encoding schemes of the text, leading to a greater confidence in our results.
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Abstract Abstract We argue that market forces shaped the geographic distribution of upper-tail human capital across Europe during the Middle Ages, and contributed to bolstering universities at the dawn of the Humanistic and Scientific Revolutions. We build a unique database of thousands of scholars from university sources covering all of Europe, construct an index of their ability, and map the academic market in the medieval and early modern periods. We show that scholars tended to concentrate in the best universities (agglomeration), that better scholars were more sensitive to the quality of the university (positive sorting) and migrated over greater distances (positive selection). Agglomeration, selection, and sorting patterns testify to an integrated academic market, made possible by the use of a common language (Latin).
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Abstract Air pollution is currently accountable for 40,000 deaths every year in France. The main objective of this study was to characterize the evolution of urban air pollution and its impact on mortality, by comparing two air pollution exposure periods, 2008–2010 and 2017–2019, within the Toulouse area. We also aimed to estimate the presumed health benefits had tracer pollutant concentrations reached the level indicated by the updated 2021 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the 2017–2019 period. The breakdown of this health impact, according to level of social deprivation, was also assessed along with an exploration of the associated economic impacts. Several quantitative health impact studies (EQIS) were conducted by modeling population exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 within the region covered by the second Toulouse Air Protection Plan (PPA). The French European Deprivation Index (F-EDI) was used as a fine-scale indicator of social deprivation, and economic impacts were estimated by assigning a monetary value to the prevention of one death linked to air pollution. Across the area of study, average annual concentration levels decreased from 17.2 μg/m3 to 10.3 μg/m3 for PM2.5, and from 21.7 μg/m3 to 18.1 μg/m3 for NO2 between 2009 and 2019. The proportion of all causes of mortality attributable to air pollution (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) thus dropped from 15.7% [5.8; 23.8] to 7.2% [2.6; 11.2] for PM2.5 between 2009 and 2019, and it decreased from 2.7% [0.9; 4.2] to 1.9% [0.7; 2.9] for NO2 over the same period. Despite this improvement, concentrations of tracer pollutants remained above WHO 2021 guidelines, and there were still 440 annual deaths attributable to overexposure to PM2.5, which could have been avoided had these values been reached in 2019. Regarding social deprivation, a low but increasing gradient of exposure to air pollution was observed between the least and most deprived population quintiles. This led to an even greater mortality gradient attributable to air pollution between these same quintiles, and this worsened between 2009 and 2019. The annual economic gains that could have potentially been achieved, had the WHO 2021 guidelines been met, are estimated at 2,772 million euros2018 in 2009 and 1,423 million euros2018 in 2019.
Keywords Social deprivation, Cost-benefit analysis, Mortality, Air pollution, Pollution de l&#039, air, Mortalité, Privation sociale, Analyse coût-bénéfice
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Abstract We propose a framework for the analysis of choice behaviour when the latter is made explicitly in chronological order. We relate this framework to the traditional choice theoretic setting from which the chronological aspect is absent, and compare it to other frameworks that extend this traditional setting. Then, we use this framework to analyse various models of preference discovery. We characterise, via simple revealed preference tests, several models that differ in terms of (1) the priors that the decision-maker holds about alternatives and (2) whether the decision-maker chooses period by period or uses her knowledge about future menus to inform her present choices. These results provide novel testable implications for the preference discovery process of myopic and forward-looking agents.
Keywords Chronological choice, Preference discovery, Revealed preferences, Myopic agents, Forward-looking agents
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Abstract This paper examines the role of social interactions in contract enforcement within the postcolonial Arab world, with a specific focus on Morocco. Through extensive interviews with members of the industrial elite during the import-substituting industrialization (ISI) period, we uncover a significant risk of contractual breaches. Despite this risk, there was a reluctance to use social connections to penalize those who breached contracts. Legal recourse was also rarely pursued. Instead, business leaders leaned on their social networks to assess potential partners and resolve disputes through bilateral channels. This reliance on social ties was facilitated by the close-knit and compact nature of the business community. In the post-ISI era, characterized by a larger and more diverse industrial elite, there was a noticeable increase in contractual disputes, accompanied by a shift towards more aggressive resolution methods. We present a theoretical model that elucidates how these dynamics naturally emerge from an environment where economic and social interactions are intertwined.
Keywords Industry, Twentieth century, Elite, Morocco
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Abstract Most studies assessing animal decision-making under risk rely on probabilities that are typically larger than 10%. To study Decision-Making in uncertain conditions, we explore a novel experimental and modelling approach that aims at measuring the extent to which rats are sensitive - and how they respond - to outcomes that are both rare (probabilities smaller than 1%) and extreme in their consequences (deviations larger than 10 times the standard error). In a four-armed bandit task, stochastic gains (sugar pellets) and losses (time-out punishments) are such that extremely large - but rare - outcomes materialize or not depending on the chosen options. All rats feature both limited diversification, mixing two options out of four, and sensitivity to rare and extreme outcomes despite their infrequent occurrence, by combining options with avoidance of extreme losses (Black Swans) and exposure to extreme gains (Jackpots). Notably, this sensitivity turns out to be one-sided for the main phenotype in our sample: it features a quasi-complete avoidance of Black Swans, so as to escape extreme losses almost completely, which contrasts with an exposure to Jackpots that is partial only. The flip side of observed choices is that they entail smaller gains and larger losses in the frequent domain compared to alternatives. We have introduced sensitivity to Black Swans and Jackpots in a new class of augmented Reinforcement Learning models and we have estimated their parameters using observed choices and outcomes for each rat. Adding such specific sensitivity results in a good fit of the selected model - and simulated behaviors that are close - to behavioral observations, whereas a standard Q-Learning model without sensitivity is rejected for almost all rats. This model reproducing the main phenotype suggests that frequent outcomes are treated separately from rare and extreme ones through different weights in Decision-Making.
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Abstract We study the behavioral determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake. The vaccine-pass policy, implemented in several countries in 2021, conditioned the access to leisure and consumption places to being vaccinated against COVID-19 and created an unprecedented situation where individuals’ access to consumption goods and vaccine status were interrelated. We rely on a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model to study the plausible relationships between time preference and the decision to vaccinate in such context. We test the predictions of our model using data collected from a representative sample of the French population (N = 1034) in August and September 2021. Respondents were asked about their COVID-19 vaccination status (zero, one, or two doses), as well as their economic and social preferences. Preference elicitations were undertaken online through incentivized tasks, with parallel collection of self-stated preferences. Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination were investigated using a logistic model. Both elicited and stated impatience were found to be positively associated with COVID-19 vaccination decisions. These results suggest that impatience is a key motivational lever for vaccine uptake in a context where the vaccination decision is multidimensional and impacts the consumption potential. Results also serve to highlight the potential effectiveness of public communications campaigns based on time preferences to increase vaccination coverage.
Keywords Time inconsistency, Health behavior, COVID-19 Vaccination, Time preferences
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Abstract To compare income and wealth distributions and to assess the effects of policy that affect those distributions require reliable inequality-measurement tools. However, commonly used inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient have an apparently counter-intuitive property: income growth among the rich may actually reduce measured inequality. We show that there are just two inequality measures that both avoid this anomalous behavior and satisfy the principle of transfers. We further show that the recent increases in US income inequality are understated by the conventional Gini coefficient and explain why a simple alternative inequality measure should be preferred in practice.
Keywords Gini coefficient, Inequality measures, Median, Gini coefficient inequality measures median
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